1. Population resource relationships – Models

2. Key questions What is the concept of carrying capacity?
What are Over population & Under Population?
What theories exist regarding population & resource relationships?

3. Key terms
Overpopulation – When there are too many people in an area relative to the amount of resources available and the level of technology available to maintain a high standard of living.
Underpopulation - When there are too few people in an area to use the resources available efficiently for a given level of technology.
Carrying Capacity - The number of individuals who can be supported in a given area within natural resource limits and without degrading the natural, social, cultural and economic environment for present and future generations.

4. Optimum population is THEORETICAL
Optimum population = the size of population which permits the full use of the natural resources of an area giving maximum per capita output and standard of living
OPTIMUM POPULATION
Overpopulation – an increase in population or decrease in natural resources which leads to a decrease in standards of living for the population as a whole.
Underpopulation – the population is too small to develop its resources effectively
Optimum population is THEORETICAL

5. Is Bangladesh Overpopulated?
Overpopulation
When there are too many people in an area relative to the amount of resources available and the level of technology available to maintain a high standard of living.
Is Bangladesh Overpopulated?
Bangladesh has a high population density of 1,188 per square km (2013) and a population growth rate of 1.59%. The GDP per capita of $497 is extremely low. 33% of the population are under 14 years of age. There is a high incidence of natural disasters – particularly flooding. Most of the population are farmers. There is a shortage of industry, services and natural resources. The low level of literacy has led to limited internal innovation and a lack of capital has meant that the country cannot afford to buy technology from abroad. What do you think?
Clearly Bangladesh is overpopulated – what will the standard of living be like?

6. The Netherlands has a population density of 497 per square kilometre.
Is The Netherlands Overpopulated?
The Netherlands has a population density of 497 per square kilometre.
There are large, densely populated areas in the Netherlands and it is not well endowed with natural resources.
However, it has been able to use technology to produce high-quality agricultural products for export to generate income GDP per capita is $45,960 (2013.
What do you think the standard of living is like in the Netherlands compared to Bangladesh?
Even though the Netherlands has a lack of natural resources, because the country has a well developed economy it is able to generate the income it needs to buy the resources that it requires.

7. Is Canada Underpopulated?
Underpopulation
When there are too few people in an area to use the resources available efficiently for a given level of technology.
Is Canada Underpopulated?
Canada’s population density is low – 4 per sq km (2013).
Population growth rate is 0.77%.
The GDP per capita in 2013 was extremely high at $51,206.
Approximately 18% of the population is aged under 15.
There are few natural disasters. Canada has developed industries, services and many natural resources. Few people are farmers or live in rural areas.
High levels of literacy and wealth allow the development and import of modern technology.
Theoretically, Canada could double its population and still maintain its high standard of living.
Compare the population density figures of the 3 examples: Bangladesh 1,123 per sq km, Netherlands 395 per sq km and Canada 3.67 per sq km. Canada has by far the lowest figure. Looking at the figures there is a clear indication that Canada is underpopulated, but why don’t more people live there? Areas of Canada that are inhospitable etc. The key here though is that although Canada is statistically underpopulated this is actually a benefit to the country as it allows there to be a higher standard of living for its inhabitants. It does not need to increase its population in order for living standards to improve. This would not be the case in an LEDC as it wouldn’t have the technology to allow it to maximise the resource potential of the country.

8. Underpopulation is sometimes defined as when a country’s population has declined too much to support its current economic system. This is the case in somewhere like Russia. Declining population is an issue because it means that the workforce is not being replaced and so there is a loss of tax revenue and a high dependency ratio. Refer back to the case study that students completed when looking at components of population change (example of pro-natalist policy). Does Russia have the characteristics of underpopulation?
This market place is ‘underpopulated’…there is plenty of produce (resources) but no customers (population) to buy it and therefore the market traders don’t make any money. If there were more customers (an increase in population) more produce would be sold (resources exploited) and more money made (an increase in standard of living).

9. Underpopulated Africa???
NAMIBIA 2.61
MAURITANIA 3.20
BOTSWANA 3.55
GABON 5.89
These are 4 of the least densely populated countries in Africa. Namibia 2.61, Mauritania 3.20, Botswana 3.55 and Gabon 5.89 (UK is 246). Find out the age structure, PGR, life expectancy, TFR and GDP per capita for each country. Does this information indicate that that these countries are underpopulated? Why/why not?
E.g. Namibia (the least densely populated country in Africa). GDP per capita = $5693, very youthful population (31.7% aged 0-14, 23.1% aged 15-24, 35.9% aged 25-54, 4.8% aged and 4.4% aged 65+), life expectancy = years. BUT PGR is only 0.67% (the UK is approximately 0.6%) and TFR is 2.25 (only just above replacement level).

10. Bjorn Lomborg

11. Theories Behind population and food supply
Thomas Malthus
A British Demographer who believed that food supply was finite and that an increase in population beyond that point would lead to a decline in living standards and to war, famine and disease.
His ‘Essay on the Principle of population’ is infamous
His ideas influenced Darwin, the Eugenics movement and political thinking in the UK during the 19th century

12. The Core Principles of Malthus:
Food is necessary for human existence
Human population tends to grow faster than the power in the earth to produce subsistence – particularly amongst the ‘LOWER’ classes
The effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal
Since humans tend not to limit their population size voluntarily - “preventive checks” must be used
It’s debatable whether the principles of Malthus two hundred years ago
(that were very revolutionary and controversial) have any relevance whatsoever to the modern world.
To understand this setting, it’s important to look at what times were like in England, where this was written, was still perhaps reeling from the American Revolution. The world population in 1798 was at nine million people. We have now passed the six billion mark.
With this setting Malthus emerged with this highly controversial essay. It was a reaction to a sense of optimism that was prevalent at this time.

13. The Core Principles of Malthus:
As long as humans have food to eat the population would tend to increase
The limits to population growth could be decided by the amount of food supplied
Increases in food production would increase in a simple arithmetic fashion- for example 1…2…3… and so on, whereas population usually increased in a geometric fashion- i.e. 12…4…8…16 and so on.

14. KEY TERMS Carrying Capacity Exponential (geometric growth)
Arithmetic growth

15. These ‘checks’ act as a natural method of population control.
The Core Principles of Malthus:
CHECKS
Once the carrying capacity had been reached, further growth in population would be prevented by negative and positive ‘checks’.
These ‘checks’ act as a natural method of population control.

16. -VE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Negative Checks were used to limit the population growth. It included abstinence/ postponement of marriage- lowering fertility rate.

17. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+VE
Positive Checks were ways to reduce population size by events such as famine, disease, war - increasing mortality rate and reducing life expectancy.

18. Malthus was quoted as saying:
The power of the population is infinitely greater than the power of the Earth to produce sustenance

19. Was Malthus right?
795 million or one in nine people suffering from chronic undernourishment ( )
Almost all the hungry people, 780 million, live in developing countries, representing percent, or one in eight, of the population of developing counties.
There are 11 million people undernourished in developed countries
Globally 161 million under-five year olds were estimated to be stunted in 2013.
In 2013, about half of all stunted children lived in Asia and over one third in Africa.
Globally, 51 million under-five year olds were wasted and 17 million were severely wasted in 2013.
Many of the hungriest people in the world live in war torn countries

20. However…
There are twice as many Britons now than there were when Malthus was alive, and they are richer and better fed by far
Malthus did not foresee the agricultural revolution - The green revolution increased yields, greenhouses grow crops all the year round
Developments in transport have meant more world trade – growing and selling crops overseas
The industrial revolution spread development - people started limiting family size voluntarily
Technology and the shift to services have meant mass labour forces are not needed and the green revolution reduced the need for an agricultural workforce.
Contraceptives and a global shift away from religious doctrine have played a huge part

21. Club Rome 1972 An international team of scientists and administrators
Predicted through computer use:
If the present trends in population growth and resource utilisation continued then a sudden decline in economic growth would occur within the next century.

22. Their suggestions Stabilise the following: Population growth
Use of resources
Industrial growth
Economic development
Emphasise the following:
Food production and conservation

23. If present population growth rates and resource consumption patterns continue then the limits to growth of the planet will be reached sometime in the next 100 years

24. Were they right?

25. PAUL EHRLICH
The planet has finite resources and therefore can not support infinite population growth
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26. Technological optimism: Boserup
Danish economist - ‘The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure’ (1965),
She worked for the United Nations and her experience working in low- and middle- income countries such as India helped to shape her theory of the relationship between human population growth and food production.
Boserup challenged Malthus’s conclusion that the size of the human population is limited by the amount of food it can produce. She suggested that food production can, and will, increase to match the needs of the population.
She suggested that as population increased, farming became more intensive due to innovation and the introduction of new methods and technology. She described this change as ‘agricultural intensification’.

28. limitations Population pressure can lead to degradation of the land
GM crops and Green revolution techniques are not open to all
Also based on the assumption of a ‘closed society’ and does not consider migration
Boserup’s theory seems to provide a model for continuous population growth, but there are those who argue that Malthus was right and that there is a limit to the amount of humans the planet can support.
As modern environmentalists, scientists and politicians debate the future of the world’s climate and resources, we must hope that Boserup was right to believe that human beings are capable of remarkable ingenuity in the face of a problem.

29. Julian simon 1981 – the ultimate resource model
Population grows in response to technological advances
When resources become scarce technology finds alternatives methods of production or alternative resources

30. Bjorn Lomborg 2002 The sceptical environmentalist
He believes that the major problems facing the world are area specific and can be reduced by economic and social development
Much of this is mirrored in what Hans Roslings statistics tell us

31. Is growing population the biggest issue?
CONCLUSIONS??
Is growing population the biggest issue?
Are ageing populations now more significant?
Is the issue area specific?

32. PAST PAPers – Page 20 Question 4
Fig. 4 shows a model of the relationship between population and resources.
(a) Describe the trend for population shown in Fig. 4. [2]
(b) Describe two possible consequences of population reaching A in Fig. 4. [3]
(c) Explain how countries might delay or avoid reaching A in Fig. 4. [5]

33. Past paper ESSAYS – pageS 2 question 10
(a) (i) Define the term underpopulation. [3]
(ii) Suggest two pieces of evidence that may show that a rural area is overpopulated. [4]
(b) Explain how overpopulation can be reduced. [8]
(c) How far do you agree that the main causes of food shortages are economic? [10]

34. Past paper ESSAYS – page 5 question 10
10 (a) (i) Define the term carrying capacity. [3]
(ii) With the help of examples, give two ways that population may exceed carrying capacity. [4]
(b) Explain the causes of food shortages. [8]
(c) How far do you agree that the idea of a population ceiling is no longer useful? [10]

35. Past paper ESSAYS – page 10 question 10
Fig. 6 shows the ‘S’ curve that models how population may change over time.
(a) (i) Give the meaning of the term carrying capacity. [3]
(ii) Suggest reasons why the population may level off as it reaches the carrying capacity. [4]
(b) Outline the main features of underpopulation and consider whether underpopulation is a useful concept. [8]
(c) Assess the success of attempts to sustain an increasing population using technology and innovation. [10]