1. Developing a low-carbon, non-nuclear revolution in electricity generation
Keith Barnham
Emeritus Professor of Physics
Imperial College London
The Burning Answer:
a User’s Guide to the Solar Revolution
Weidenfeld and Nicholson 2014

2. Get it from the sun (GIFTS)
GIFTS aims to show local exploitation of renewables makes the government’s preferred nuclear and natural gas electricity supply:
- redundant, base-load soon be obsolete
- too high carbon for our COP21 commitment
- too expensive, cost-wise and politically

3. PV + Wind in an all-renewable UK
Storage
Inflexible nuclear power obsolete as approach all-renewable supply
Half the year nuclear will have to compete with cheap wind for storage

4. (PV + Wind) (80%) & Storage (5%)
Flexible biogas electricity (approx. 15%) backs-up PV & wind
Large wind fluctuations will be smoothed out by the grid

5. PV all renewable target hit by 2020?
Germany
2025
EDF?
K.Barnham, K.Knorr, M.Mazzer, Nature Materials, 15, 115, Feb. 2016

6. Onshore Wind target reached by 2022?
2025
EDF?

7. Offshore Wind target reached by 2021
2025
EDF?
Despite being large scale in a difficult environment, off-shore wind power has increased exponentially like much smaller scale PV

8. Biogas from Anaerobic Digestion (AD)
Farm animal waste & crop waste, plus food waste decay to biomethane for electricity and gas grids
Very low carbon footprint: avoids waste rotting on ground or in landfill to produce greenhouse gases
Low carbon answer to flexible capacity problem
Alternative for Local Authorities when turning down high-carbon fossil-fuel planning applications

9. Exponential rising markets lead to falling wholesale prices
Good Energy showed 2014 fall in UK due to cheaper renewables

10. Possible effects of UK subsidy cuts
2020–30 increase mainly offshore wind (Amber Rudd)

11. Wholesale electricity prices 2025
+ Wholesale electricity costs achieved in Germany

12. Conclusions
All-renewable electricity supply makes inflexible nuclear power redundant
If no cuts PV and wind hit targets by 2022
LAs: please reject new fossil flexible capacity and support biogas AD alternative (Bristol)
For half a year EDF will be selling HPC power subsidised 7p of 9p by UK’s HWBPs to France
Restore cuts, pay from tax (as larger fossil fuel subsidy), by 2020 electricity drop 4 p to 2.4 p

13. KKW: combined power plant
Kombikraftwerk all-renewable project started in 2006
Over 2006 it matched 1/10,000 of actual German electric power demand with real-time output of PV, wind & biogas generators
PV and wind together can supply 78% German power demand
Only 17% back-up power by
biogas electricity required
Only 5% back-up from storage
was necessary
KKW gives targets for all-
renewable Germany -
adapt for UK (tomorrow)

14. What does the scientific literature say?
3 peer-reviewed surveys of 274 published life-cycle analyses (LCAs)
(Energy Policy 36, 2940 Sovacool, 37, 5056 Beerten, J.Ind.Ecol., 16, 2940, Warner & Heath)
Only 6 LCAs independent & cover all 5 LCA stages
Beerten re-analysis (3,9). Range fuel, decommissioning & waste