1. Mobilization of Coal Supply
Presented at the IRADe
Energy Conclave
T.L. Sankar
(Advisor Energy Area)
Centre for Infrastructure Management
ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF COLLEGE OF INDIA
Bella Vista: Hyderabad
27 July 2006

2. IEP Estimate of Energy Demand
Assumed GDP Growth rate = 8% per year.
Elasticity reducing slightly over time in case of both TPES and Electricity
SL.No.
Year
TPES (Mtoe)
Energy Required
Generation (Bill kWh) 1
394
761 2
537
1097 3
718
1524 4
961
2118 5
1248
2866 6
1620
3880
TPES - Total Primary Commercial Energy Supply.
Mtoe Million tonne oil equivalent.
B.kWh - Billion units of electricity.

3. Sources of Power Generation
SL.
No.
Year
Total Elect.
(B.kWh)
Nuclear
B.kWh
Hydro
Wind
Coal
MMT NG
Oil 1
761 26
100 5
375 18 6 2
1087 59
179 8
493 25 3
1524
110
226 12
656 41 9 4
2118
206
283 15
814 55
2886
301
400 19
1133 89 14
3880
441
500 24
1478
134 17 7
Growth rate (% per year)
6.7
12.0
6.6
6.5
5.6
8.4
4.2

4. IEP Estimates of demand Ranges under scenarios
Fuel
Ranges of Need
Likely domestic production
Ranges of Imports
Import (%)
Oil(mt) 35
91-93
Natural gas +CBM(mtoe)
200
0-24
0-11
Coal (mtoe)
560
13-522
2-48
TCPES(mtoe) -
28-59

5. Coal Demand estimate by IEP (Plan-wise scenario)
SL.
No.
Year
Coal Demand for Power Generation
MMT
Coal Demand for non-power MMT
Total Coal Demand 1
375
123
498 2
493
164
657 3
656
221
877 4
814
299
1133 5
408
1541 6
1478
582
2060 7
Growth rate % per year
5.6
6.4
5.8

6. Coal Production – Achieved/Required Rates of Growth
Coal Production (Total) in = =
Achieved Growth rate in past 24 years
= 5.3%
Required Growth Rate as per IEP
= 5.8%
Let us assume that growth rate increases by 1% over the past trend and is 6.3%
Production in could be = 2293 MT.

7. Measures proposed in Expert Committee on Coal Reforms
Delineate the coal reserves situation in India on the basis of international standards UNFC standards.
Allow private industry to enter into exploration-cum-mining lease on the lines of NELP in oil industry.
Liberalize captive mining procedures and release all areas with CIL which are not covered in their production plans up to 12th plan.
Create a Coal Regulatory Authority.

8. Measures proposed in Expert Committee on Coal Reforms (Contd.)
Dual pricing in coal sector. For industries which ensure large quantities of coal and need special infrastructure arrangements and whose end-products prices are regulated, a cost plus basis pricing to be determined by the Coal Regulator: The price of coal to other industries to be market determined through at auction.
6. FSTA arrangements to be introduced.

9. Measures proposed in Expert Committee on Coal Reforms (Contd.)
7. Encourage coal exports and imports simultaneously each year.
Preference in future power plant locations – for pit head and port locations.
Undertake immediately measures to introduce and use extensively clean coal technology.
Restructuring the coal industry and legal structures governing coal industry.