1. Market Trends
David Edwards
April 2010

2. Competition for international tourism remains fierce
Destinations with positive growth in 2009
Turkey, South Africa, Cuba, Peru, Cambodia, Bahrain, Montenegro, Morocco

3. UK’s global market share

4. Global league tables

5. Charting trends

6. Inbound tourism recovering, but only slowly
We forecast inbound visits to Britain to grow by 1% and visitor spending to increase by 4%
We will not return to the record visitor numbers seen in 2007 until at least 2011
UNWTO forecast global growth of 3% in 2010 after 4% decline in 2009
IATA anticipate global air travel back to pre-recession levels by summer 2010

7. Recent inbound volume and value trends

8. Our most important markets: 2009 performance
USA -4%
Germany -5%
France +5%
Spain +9%
Ireland -5%

9. Mixed picture for long-haul markets
Canada -20%
Argentina +92%
South Korea -42%
Malaysia +59%
UAE +6%
South Africa -13%
Taiwan +42%

10. Inbound journey purpose trends

11. The inbound study market: volume and value trends

12. Relative importance of inbound study visits and spend

13. Top inbound study markets by volume

14. Top inbound study markets by value

15. Economic trends Unemployment has peaked… or has it?
Asia still leading the recovery
North America perking up
Europe is lagging behind
UK may see double-dip recession

16. Britain can still exploit the ‘value’ message
Volatility is the watchword for 2010

17. The decade of austerity starts here
Public sector broadly immune from recession in 2008 and 2009
Likely to see substantial public sector spending and job cuts in
Industrial strife possible across many sectors
Consumers will face higher taxes
Challenging environment in which to call for APD hike due in November to be withdrawn

18. Connectivity and accessibility
1,435 separate scheduled air routes connected Britain to the world in 2009
But airports handled 7.4% fewer passengers than in 2008
Uncertainties grow over a third runway at Heathrow
IATA estimate cost to aviation of volcanic ash is $1.7bn
A visitor visa to visit the UK now costs £68
A visa to study in the UK now costs £199

19. With right support tourism can be a growth industry for Britain
Visitor Economy is worth £115bn today, £188bn by 2020
Gross Value Added could grow by 3.5% pa through to 2020, compared with overall economic GVA growing at 2.9% pa
Potential to support an additional 250,000 jobs by 2020 (reaching 2.9 million
Inbound spend has potential to grow at 4.4% pa, domestic spend 2.6% pa over next decade
Inbound visitors contribute £3bn pa in taxes

20. Factors contributing to current tourism trends in Britain