1. Electing a US President, 2016
Hillary Clinton
Democratic Party
Donald Trump
Republican Party

2. “The most important election in a generation…”
Party establishments weakening
Trump and Sanders
Economic Consensus challenged
Trade
National Security consensus challenged
Alliances
Forward defense
Nuclear deterrence

3. Realignment? Republican Party shattering Democratic Party moving left
Demographic shifts

4. Electoral College System
Popular Vote
Electoral Vote
Each state has a designated # of votes
# of Representatives in US House of Reps
# of Senators
538 total votes
270 to win
Why this system?

5. Electoral Vote Totals for 2016

6. Election Day Americans vote
Winner of each state gets the state’s electoral vote (except Maine and Nebraska)
Electoral votes of each state are added together
Whichever candidate gets over 270 wins

7. 2012 Results (332-206) Obama Victory

8. Complications No winner? House of Representatives chooses
Election of 1800
Election of 1824
Popular Vote winner loses Electoral Vote
Election of 1876
Election of 1888
Election of 2000

9. Creating a Coalition among Different Demographic groups
Victory?
Creating a Coalition among Different Demographic groups

10. Democratic Era 1932-1980s Democratic New Deal Coalition Republican
Minority
South
African-Americans
Union members
Urban North
Immigrants
Farmers
Socialist parties voters
Small town Midwest
Wealthy American

11. Breakup of New Deal Coalition 1960s-1980sIN
African-Americans
Union members
Urban North
Immigrant
Farmers
OUT
Democratic South

12. Realignment Reagan Coalition (1980s to 1990s) Midwest small towns
Wealthiest Americans
Hawks on foreign policy
Blue Collar in North and Midwest (union and non-union)
White Southerners
Evangelicals
Yuppies

13. 1990s to the Present: Competition
Republicans Democrats
Southern states African-Americans
Plains states Urban Voters
Wealthy Voters Women
Christian Conservatives College Towns
Competition
Suburban Voters
Latino Voters

14. Battle in the Republican Party: 1990s-Present Reagan Coalition Shatters
Traditional Conservative
Small “c” conservative
Smaller government
Some government role
Cut taxes
Economic focus
Might be pro-choice
Movement Conservative
Government is the problem
Huge tax cuts
Social conservative
Anti-Abortion
Gun rights
Evolution/Creationism
Anti-Gay rights
Anti-same-sex marriage
Prayer in school

15. 2016 Coalitions? Trump Coalition Obama/Clinton Coalition Women
New England
West Coast
College-Educated
African-Americans
Latino-American
Asian-Americans
Non-College-Educated White Men
White Southerners
Blue Collar in North and Midwest
Union and non-union
Anti-free trade
Anti-intervention/nation-building
Evangelicals
Conservative nationalists
(white/Christian)
Rural/anti-elite
Tea Party

16. The Meaning of Trump Anti-Establishment Anti-Globalization
Three Billion New Capitalists – competition
Decline of Traditional US Manufacturing
US Education problems
Polarization
Republican Party Crisis
Demagoguery out of control
Conspiracy Theories
Social media and bullying
White Nationalism?

17. Trump Enters Politics: From A Joke to the Nominee
The “Birthers”
The Facts

18. Red States 2016 (180 EV)

19. Blue States 2016 (215 EV)

20. Swing States (143 EV)

21. 2016 Clinton Victory: Normal Trends 288-250

22. 2016 Trump Victory

23. 2016 Clinton Victory: If Trump Alienates Everyone 385-153

24. Complications Jill Stein Hillary Clinton Green Democratic
Gary Johnson Donald Trump
Libertarian Republican