1. Food Security and Nutrition Vulnerability and Risk Analysis in Warrap and Northern Bahr el Ghazal States Augustino T. Mayai The Sudd Institute Delivered to Ebony Center’s Development Policy Forum
Juba, South Sudan
March 4, 2017

2. Motivations #1
Prior evidence suggests that the cost of staple food has reached 2-3 times the CPA levels.
The quantities of food being purchased from the market have equally increased 5-6 times the CPA baseline levels in the study areas— implying increased market dependence. New income sources are crowding out traditional sources of wealth/livelihood.
These conditions are suspected to have invoked migration to N. Sudan and higher than expected GAM rates among children.
We explore the extent to which changes in livelihoods also contribute to these conditions (e.g., the role of increasing reliance on salaries).

3. Motivations #2
In the last few years, especially after independence, there have been a number of economic and political changes in the country and the world. These include the 2012 oil shutdown, the war of 2013, declines in global oil prices, and the devaluation of the national currency in 2015.
These are suspected to have impacted negatively on two states’ food security situation, probably prompting all outcomes suspected in motivation #1.
The contributions of such factors is investigated.

4. Motivations #3
In Warrap and NBeG, the chronic malnutrition levels have risen above seasonal peaks normally observed during the dry season and then again just after the start of the rainy season (May to September).  
More generally, food insecurity seems like a nagging problem for the two states in comparison to others.
The study investigates this disparity, especially how such a differentiated outcome relates to changes in the livelihoods.

5. Key Research Questions
Why have things changed, what caused these changes, and to what extent have they changed (shocks)?
When did these changes begin to appear?
Have these been observed throughout the year?
What are the new income sources that have been instituted to meet the rising costs of food in the area?
Are there spatial and group variations in these changes?

6. Data Generation Strategies
Participatory Rural Appraisal, which allows the studied elements to present any issues as they see fit, unlike a structured questionnaire strategy, which limits responses to a particular universe.
Focus discussion and key informant methods were used.
This culminated in over 60 focus group discussions, with groups drawn from three locations in NBeG (Aweil West, Aweil Center, & Aweil East) and two locations in Warrap (Gogrial West & Tonj), and from twenty different sub-locations.

7. Key Findings Causes/Shocks
We present below causes or food insecurity related shocks, with different manifestations
Insecurity (i.e., war, border conflicts, ethnic/clan conflicts)
Poverty
Climate change
Economic depression (i.e., devaluation, oil shutdown)
Unemployment
Free market
Traditional methods of farming
Cost of transaction/doing business

8. Key Findings Insecurity
This has several implications for food security
Destabilizes livelihoods systems
Undermines local food production (E.g., Aguok and Apuk in Gogrial; Apuk and Lou in Tonj)
Undermines trade and market access (case in Aweil states). People of Aweil West and East, particularly those at the periphery (Achana, Nyinboli, and Majhok Yinh Thio), have been affected by the current civil war and sporadic border conflicts with the Sudan.
Uproots social systems, with grave consequences on psychosocial structures

9. Key Findings
Poverty
Perpetuates food insecurity via low food production. This means barely fed/morbid individuals or communities rarely produce enough food in return. “People who are destitute have little energy to expend upon food production”.
If left unabated, this leads to a cycle of food insecurity.
Produces violent competitions/confrontations over limited resources. An inherent reversed relationship between violence and poverty produces its own cycle of food insecurity.

10. Key Findings Climate change
Limited or zero rainfall produces droughts, killing crops or delaying planting.
Excessive rainfall floods crops, retarding their growth potential.
Both conditions are reported to be increasingly frequent in the studied areas.

11. Key Findings Economic depression
Plummeting oil prices, dramatic reductions in oil production, and the 2012 oil shutdown reduced state’s fiscal capability to pay public servants.
The oil shutdown affected families that rely on government jobs. As a result, salaries are delayed for as long as 10 months, for example.
The 2015 devaluation of the local currency has retarded purchasing power of many households through continuously increasing food prices; the situation is exacerbated by stagnant wages and dependence on food imports.

12. Key Findings Unemployment
The absence of industry jobs has significantly affected the economic conditions of returnees who worked mainly as technicians in Khartoum.
Lack of jobs for young graduates has contributed to poverty, migration to N. Sudan or Juba, and search for employment in the security sector for as little as 600 SSP per month.
Urban migration by the educated seems sourced by such a condition.

13. Key Findings Free market
The absence of effective regulations for the market system seems to have led to exploitation by traders of the ordinary citizens. Respondents’ claim: “prices go up as the business community desires.”

14. Key Findings Traditional methods of farming
Faced with constantly changing climatic conditions, the old methods of farming are now becoming outdated.
These are no longer suitable for producing enough food in rural South Sudan.

15. Key Findings High costs of transaction
There has been an increase in checkpoints taxation, even internally, the cost of which the traders transfer to the consumers.
This has contributed to prohibitively high food prices in the studied areas.

16. Key Findings Hunger Season
Most respondents suggest hunger often strikes in February annually; in most places this study explored, it started in January this year.
Becomes severe between June and August.

17. Key Findings Groups Most Affected Women The elderly Children Widows
Cattle-less households (basically the poorest)

18. Key Findings Sources of wealth
Ordinarily, the main sources of wealth in these communities have been cattle and crops. This is, however, changing fast, with many households who lost their cattle to the northern tribes and SPLA during the war getting poorer with time.
As the ordinary citizens become poorer, there is now a shift towards monetary wealth, dominated by a few town elite. The wealth gap, which is growing, is “aided by corruption and limited delivery of basic services.”

19. Key Findings Why is the situation worse in Warrap and NBG?
The 2010 poverty study indicates worst poverty indicators for Warrap, NBG, and Unity, implying the importance of idiosyncrasy in understanding South Sudan’s food security situation. More recent shocks seem to have therefore only exacerbated a longstanding phenomenon.
Strained market access, resulting in high food prices.
Constantly occurring heavy rains/floods and droughts affect crops.
Border insecurity leads to limited food supplies from N. Sudan.

20. Key Findings Ways of meeting currently high food prices
Salaries from government and NGOs
Cattle sales
Wild fruits and vegetables gathering
Charcoal, firewood, carpentry and water distribution businesses (mostly carried out by women)

21. Key Findings Migration to N. Sudan
As a consequence of ever increasing food insecurity, many residents, up to 30% of the returnees, in the study areas have left for N. Sudan in search of better economic opportunities.
This has serious consequences, both to the migrants and South Sudan. Insecurity is mounting between the two Sudans, with migrants dying of numerous causes, including starvation and violence.
S. Sudan rebels are taking advantage of the migrants by either coopting them into their groups and sending them back to S. Sudan to fight or incarcerate or kill them if they object to such recruitment.

22. Key Findings
Food distribution
The current UN food distribution suffers corrupt practices
The UN food gets diverted to the traders, how is this so?
The distribution does not reflect population size, hence inequitably distributed.

23. Policy Responses Institute food subsidies right away.
These recommendations come from the participants
Institute food subsidies right away.
Increase investment in mechanized agriculture (long-term).
More market regulation, especially prices.
Increase food supply immediately.
UN food distribution appropriate between February and April each year to enable hunger free farming season.
Reduce corruption in food distribution.
Normalize relations with the Sudan to broaden the market.
Improve national security (e.g., immediately end the current war).