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III Communications Subcommittee

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Presentation on theme: "III Communications Subcommittee"— Presentation transcript:

1 III Communications Subcommittee
Chevy Chase, MD August 10, 2016 Russ Rader Senior Vice President Communications

2 IIHS is an independent, nonprofit scientific and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses — deaths, injuries and property damage — from crashes on the nation’s roads. HLDI shares this mission by analyzing insurance data representing human and economic losses from crashes and other events related to vehicle ownership. Both organizations are wholly supported by auto insurers.

3 Member groups Acceptance Insurance Gainsco Insurance
Oregon Mutual Insurance ACE Private Risk Services GEICO Corporation Pekin Insurance Affirmative Insurance The General Insurance PEMCO Insurance Alfa Alliance Insurance Corporation Georgia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Plymouth Rock Assurance Alfa Insurance Goodville Mutual Casualty Company Progressive Insurance Allstate Insurance Group Grange Insurance PURE Insurance American Family Mutual Insurance Hallmark Financial Services The Responsive Auto Insurance Company American National Hanover Insurance Group Rockingham Group Ameriprise Auto & Home Haulers Insurance Company Safe Auto Insurance Company Amica Mutual Insurance Company The Hartford Safeco Insurance Auto Club Enterprises Horace Mann Insurance Companies Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Company Auto Club Group ICW Group SECURA Insurance Auto-Owners Insurance Imperial Fire & Casualty Insurance Company Sentry Insurance Aviva Insurance Indiana Farmers Mutual Insurance Company Shelter Insurance Bankers Insurance Group Infinity Property & Casualty Sompo Japan Insurance Company of America Bitco Insurance Companies Kemper Corporation South Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company California Casualty Group Kentucky Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Companies Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company Capital Insurance Group Liberty Mutual Insurance Company State Auto Insurance Companies Censtat Casualty Company Louisiana Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company State Farm Insurance Companies Chubb & Son Main Street America Group Tennessee Farmers Mutual Insurance Company Colorado Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Mercury Insurance Group Texas Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Concord Group Insurance Companies MetLife Auto & Home The Travelers Companies COUNTRY Financial MiddleOak United Educators CSAA Insurance Group Mississippi Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Company USAA CSE Insurance Group MMG Insurance Utica National Insurance Group Direct General Corporation Munich Reinsurance America, Inc. Virginia Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Erie Insurance Group Mutual of Enumclaw Insurance Company West Bend Mutual Insurance Company Esurance Nationwide Western National Insurance Group Farm Bureau Financial Services New Jersey Manufacturers Insurance Group Westfield Insurance Farm Bureau Insurance of Michigan Nodak Mutual Insurance Company XL Group plc Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company of Idaho Norfolk & Dedham Group Farmers Insurance Group North Carolina Farm Bureau Mutual Insurance Company Farmers Mutual Hail Insurance Company of Iowa Northern Neck Insurance Company Funding associations Farmers Mutual of Nebraska Ohio Mutual Insurance Group American Insurance Association Florida Farm Bureau Insurance Companies Old American County Mutual Fire Insurance Company National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies Frankenmuth Insurance Old American Indemnity Company Property Casualty Insurers Association of America

4 Fatal crash trends

5 Motor vehicle crash deaths and deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled
1991: NHTSA extends automatic restraint requirement to light trucks with a GVWR of 8,500 pounds or less 1990: NHTSA revises FMVSS 214 to require dynamic side impact testing 1989: IIHS and MADD announce research confirming efficacy of 3 major alcohol-impaired driving laws (ALR, Per Se, and 1st Offense Jail) 1988: Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety founded 1992: IIHS opens the Vehicle Research Center 1990: Supreme Court holds sobriety checkpoints constitutional 1995: National Maximum Speed Limit repealed 2001: California becomes first State with seat belt use above 90% 2004: Washington enacts first all-offender ignition interlock law 2000: 0.08 BAC law required by FY 2004 1996: NHTSA begins NCAP side impact protection testing/rating 1996: Florida enacts first graduated driver licensing law 1993: North Carolina begins Click It or Ticket campaign 1987: National SAFE KIDS Campaign founded 1978: NHTSA begins New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) 1980: MADD founded 1978: Tennessee enacts first child passenger safety law 1974: 55 mph National Maximum Speed Limit 1967: NHTSA issues Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) 1970: NHTSA issues first passive occupant restraint requirement 1987: National Maximum Speed Limit relaxed on rural Interstate highways 1982: First Lifesavers Conference in Detroit 1986: California begins first alcohol ignition interlock program 1986: National Roadside Survey by IIHS shows dramatic decline in drinking drivers 1984: New York enacts first seat belt law 1986: CDC establishes injury control program 1984: NHTSA issues final passive occupant restraint requirement for passenger cars unless 2/3 of U.S. population covered by belt use laws 1984: National Minimum Drinking Age Act 2014 10.8 per billion 32,675 deaths 1966 54.9 per billion 50,894 deaths Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled Motor vehicle crash deaths

6

7

8 US motor vehicle crash deaths and unemployment rate
Motor vehicle crash deaths 6 percent Unemployment rate 32,675

9 Year-to-year percent changes in US motor vehicle crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled and unemployment rate Unemployment rate Crash deaths per billion vehicle miles traveled

10 Collision loss trends

11 Collision claim frequencies
By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years Claims per 100 insured vehicle years change in reporting procedures for 1 company

12 Collision claim severities
By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years change in reporting procedures for 1 company

13 Collision overall losses
By calendar year and vehicle type, 4 most current model years change in reporting procedures for 1 company

14 Changes in teen driver exposure

15 The New York Times, The Detroit News, Collision Week, The Washington Post, Deseret News, Today, Automotive News,

16 Changes in teen exposure
Study design calendar years model years rolling 10 teen exposure 8.7 million years prime exposure 220 million years covariates unemployment spread, census population ratio, GDL intermediate licensing age study variable teen-to-prime exposure ratio

17 Comparison of national teen and prime exposure

18 Comparison of national teen and prime exposure
, indexed to 2006

19 Comparison of national teen and prime unemployment rates

20 Comparison of national teen and prime exposure
, indexed to 2006

21 Collision claim frequencies and violent crime rates

22 independent variables
Violent crime rate calendar years model year exposure 478,859,131 claims 2,935,483 independent variables vehicle age, vehicle type, rated driver age, gender, marital status, deductible, risk, registered vehicle density, state, percent of resident with high school or higher education, violent crime rate, and violent crime rate by driver age

23 Increase in collision claim frequency for each additional violent crime per 1,000 people
By calendar year and rated driver age group

24 Alcohol related fatalities and enforcement
2014 motor vehicle fatalities: 31 percent of fatally injured passenger vehicle drivers had BAC ≥0.08 percent Impact of alcohol enforcement: A review of studies of sobriety checkpoint programs found a median decline of 22 percent in fatal crashes thought to involve alcohol (Elder, et. al., 2002). In the absence of special enforcement efforts, as few as 1 in 2,000 drivers with a high BAC are arrested (Williams, 1989). An 18 percent reduction in injury and fatal crashes was found in California with roving patrols (Stuster & Blowers, 1995). In Michigan DUI saturation patrols reduced the proportion of alcohol positive drivers involved in fatal crashes by 14 percent (Fell, Tippetts, & Levy, 2008)

25 Speed related fatalities and enforcement
2014 motor vehicle fatalities: Speeding was a factor is 28 percent of motor vehicle crash deaths Impact of speed enforcement: Speed enforcement programs reduce speed related crashes by 1-11 percent and the number of vehicles traveling over the limit by percent (Stuster, 1995) Violent crimes decline 1-8 percent in special speed enforcement areas (Stuster, 1995) Average speeds return to pre-enforcement levels after enforcement has been removed (Hauer, et al., 1982)

26 Average vehicle horsepower
model years

27 Percent increase in mean vehicle speed per 10 horsepower/100 lb
Percent increase in mean vehicle speed per 10 horsepower/100 lb. increase by speed limit

28 Maximum speed limits August 2016
WA ME MT ND VT MN OR NH ID WI NY MA SD MI CT RI WY PA IA NJ NV NE OH IL IN UT DE 5/17/16, per Laurel Sims: Oklahoma has eliminated the maximum speed limit, effective November 1, Based on traffic and engineering studies the DOT may post higher than 75 mph. The current max is 75 mph DC MD CO WV VA KS MO KY CA NC TN AZ OK NM AR SC MS AL GA 60 mph 65 mph 75 mph 80 mph 70 mph 85 mph 55 mph (D.C. only) TX LA HI AK FL

29 Front crash prevention

30

31

32 Front crash prevention systems
Change in claim frequency low speed warning only warning with autobrake

33 Front crash prevention systems
Change in claim frequency low speed warning only warning with autobrake Bodily injury liability warning with autobrake warning only low speed

34 Front crash prevention systems
Change in collision claim severity low speed warning only warning with autobrake

35 Honda Accord forward collision warning
Camera vs. radar available on trims other than Touring standard on Touring trim change in collision claim severity -$145 change in collision claim severity $522

36 Front crash prevention systems
Change in collision overall losses low speed warning only warning with autobrake

37

38 The percentage of vehicles in the U. S
The percentage of vehicles in the U.S. fleet with advanced safety systems

39 New vehicle series with front crash prevention
By model year

40 Registered vehicles with front crash prevention
By calendar year

41 Registered vehicles with available front crash prevention, actual and predicted
By calendar year

42 Estimated change in PDL claim frequency due to increased fitment of FCW systems
Based on estimated effect of 10% optional assumption: 20% 2020 mandate

43 Headlights

44 Headlight ratings for midsize cars
March 2016 – 66 systems available on 33 cars

45 Headlight ratings for small SUVs
July 2016 – 38 systems available on 21 vehicles

46

47 Animal strikes

48 National comprehensive claim frequencies for animal strikes
January 2006 through December 2015 November August

49 November animal-strike claims
Per 1,000 insured vehicle years ≥ 25 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 < 5 does not meet 100 November claims threshold

50 Comprehensive claims and dollars
By loss type, models claims dollars vandalism 4.5% vandalism 5.9% weather 5.7% animal strike 9.9% other 10.4% theft 2.0% other 16.4% fire 0.2% animal strike 27.4% weather 23.7% glass 67.4% glass 13.7% theft 10.6% fire 2.3%

51 Point of impact distribution
calendar years and model years 17.1% 55.9% 14.4% 10.5% 30.2% 11.1% 3.9% 2.7% 3.6% 3.7% 2.1% 1.2% 3.1% 3.6% 1.0% 0.6% 2.8% 3.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 6.1% 16.1% 5.6% animal-strike claims collision claims

52 Large animal crash prevention system
2017 Volvo S90 2017 Volvo XC90

53 Increase safety belt use
Deter alcohol-impaired driving Reduce speeding Increase motorcycle helmet use

54

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