1. Anticipating the Future of Distance Learning
The 21st Century
James L. Morrison
Professor of Educational Leadership
UNC-Chapel Hill
TODAY
The 21st Century

2. Teaching and Learning in the 21st Century
The changing environment
Technology and learning
Where are we?
What are the issues?

3. Students can no longer prepare bark to calculate problems
Students can no longer prepare bark to calculate problems. They depend instead on expensive slates. What will they do when the slate is dropped and breaks?
Teacher’s Conference, 1703

4. Students depend on paper too much
Students depend on paper too much. They no longer know how to write on a slate without getting dust all over themselves. What will happen when they run out of paper?
Principal’s Association Meeting, 1815

5. Students depend too much upon ink
Students depend too much upon ink. They no longer know how to use a knife to sharpen a pencil.
National Association of Teachers, 1907

6. Students depend too much on store bought ink
Students depend too much on store bought ink. They don’t know how to make their own. What will happen when they run out?
Rural American Teacher, 1928

7. The Changing Environment
Globalization
Economic restructuring
Need for up-to-date, college trained, workforce; for continuous retraining
Exploding clientele
Changing clientele
Older, working, raising children
Takes longer to get degree
Concern for cost
California expects 488,000 additional undergraduates within the next 10 years.
Oregon’s legislature adopted a policy supporting access to higher education for every qualified Oregonian\
Traditional student declining: at Cal State system, typical undergrad is 26, working 20 hours per week, perhaps while raising children
Problem of access is particularly acute in developing world. 3/4 of population in South Africa and Palestine is under 20. They may not get the taining for employability and mass education to inspire them--they will grow up to be unemployed, unconnected, and unstable.
In the US, the cost of sending a child to college is approaching 15% of median family income (9% 15 years ago) in public institutions. Private: 40% (up from 20% 15 years ago). Americans are questioning in this investment returns value for the money. Costs are increasing faster than inflation.

8. Percent of Firms Downsizing by Business Category
This was a report of a 1994 American Management Study of 713 major U.S. Companies.
Over the past five years, 2/3sof US companies haveundergone downsizing (16.7 milion jobs cut since 1991). American Management Association annual survey reports that nearly 30% of employers plan to eliminate jobs this year, the highest percentagein the survey’s 8 year history. Typically, the number of firms that actually make cuts is double the number of those that say they will.
Friedman, Jill. “Four Questions to Ask Before Accepting a Buyout.” Working Woman, October 1996, pp
Source: Chicago Tribune, August 21, 1995

9. From 1980 to 1994, the U.S. contingent workforce—temps, self-employed, consultants—increased 57%

10. Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.

11. Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping will become the norm.

12. The Enrollment Pipeline
High School Graduates,
(millions of students)
3.0
2.8
We Are Here!
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
2004
'79
'82
'85
'88
'91
'94
'97
'00
source: WICHE

13. An Aging Clientele for Higher Education

14. Projections Today Tomorrow (2000) 3,613 institutions 672 new campuses
16 million students
$156b in operations
Tomorrow (2000)
672 new campuses
20 million new learners
$235b to build
$217b/year to operate
Box 1 (upper left) Today: we are supporting 16 m students, costing blah blah blah
Box 2 (lower box) Workforce Analysts predict that there will be over 141 million workers in the workforce by the year In order for these workers to maintain their basic employment skills in the information age, they will require the equivalent of 30
credit hours every 7 years. Thus, there will be approximately 20 million (141/7 years) new learners seeking learning opportunities every year.
Box 3 (upper right) In order to support this many new learners in our current environment, it would require blah blah blah. In order to meet this demand one institution would need to open every eight days.
Workforce Statistics
141 million workers
1/7 require 7 credit equivalents/year
Source: Michael Dolence AACRAO 1997

15. Supply and Demand Demand for Education L e a r n s Resources Available
Time

16. The Changing Environment
Self Service and Convenience
No longer school - work - retire model
Massive Expansion of Potential Students
Immigration continues to exceed births
Older Citizens
Continuing professional/occupational education

17. The Changing Environment
New competition in higher education
Old-line institutions have discovered satellites and the Internet
Traditional “service areas” fair game for all
New for-profit educational providers
Certification monopoly at risk
employers concerned about competency
employers relying less on diplomas
Outcomes assessment coming on line--Western Governors University
College costs exceeding inflation--concern for ROI
In the US, the cost of sending a child to college is approaching 15% of median family income (9% 15 years ago) in public institutions. Private: 40% (up from 20% 15 years ago). Americans are questioning in this investment returns value for the money. Costs are increasing faster than inflation.

18. Trends
SCT Distance Education Survey

19. Cyber-Universities 1993: 93 1997: 762 Signals
Four years ago Peterson's "Distance Learning" guide counted 93
"cyberschools" where students could earn degrees without setting foot
on campus. In 1997, the list had grown to 762. In "I Got My Degree
Through " [June 16, 1997 issue of FORBES], Lisa Gubernick and
Ashlea Ebeling chart the rise of virtual colleges and summarize the
reasons why the number of students who choose non-traditional paths to
getting an education is increasing dramatically. The authors present
viewpoints ranging from economists who hail cyberschools as the best
solution for college education, to advocates for the superiority of
in-residence programs. A list of Forbes' top 20 cyber-universities,
along with Web links, is included in the article.
The article is available online at

20. Examples Magellan University College Connection
Education Network of Maine
Colorado Electronic Community College
Coastline Community College
University College of Maryland
California Virtual University
Western Governors University
Magellan: renown authorities lecturing; small groups with tutors connected via computer networks
College Connection: Jones Intl, offers courses and degree programs from participating universities
Ed Network of Maine: presents courses from the Maine system and beyond; a separate service of the University
Coastline: college without a campus, famous for video telecourses
Univ. College (MD): offers conferences and seminars t courses housed in regional centers and distance ed courses that rely on info technology
WGU: accountability and assessment

21. Technological Tools The Internet/e-mail WWW
Productivity tools (e.g., Microsoft Office)
Videodisks
CD ROM
Video-conferencing

24. Learning: Children Are
learning machines
excited by learning, exploring
eager to try new things
not self-conscious about failure
not depressed about how they are progressing
willing to experiment, to reflect
Small children love to learn, at least before they get to school. No two-year-old has ever taken a walking class, yet any physically healthy two-year-old can walk. No three-year-old has ever taken a talking class, yet every physically healthy three-year-old can talk. No four-year-old has ever taken a course in geography or planning, yet every physically healthy four-year-old can find a room in his home, knows his neighborhood, and can navigate around in his own environment.

25. Children are trying to do something rather than to know something
are learning by doing
control their learning by using an adult to guide them through new areas of investigation—one-on-one assistance, as-needed basis

26. Natural Learning occurs when the person really wants to know something
not compatible with lockstep classrooms, rigid curricula, or measurable by multiple choice tests
When information enters memory that in no way relates to goals that the possessor of the information may want to accomplish, it is quickly forgotten because there is no meaningful place for it to reside.

27. Principles Learning is driven by the natural need to do
Knowing is driven by doing
Children learn facts because they have the need to know them, because these facts will help them do something they want to do

28. Public School
learn what someone else wants them to learn—teacher and curriculum goals
no longer learn because they want to
emphasis on rote learning, standardized curriculum
success: not being able to do, but being able to function within the system
In school, knowing becomes uncoupled from doing
“just in time learning” ; not learning to use the computer at 10:00 on 10 May, or whenever the curriculum says to learn that fragment of knowledge.
Work with a community of people with diverse knowledge rather than with the age-segregated community called a “class.”

29. “Your instructional system is driven by teaching rather than by learning, by the needs of professors rather than students.” Sir John S. Daniel, 1997
John S. Daniel (1997). Why universities need technology strategies. Change, July/August,
Quote is on page 15.

30. Uses of Technology in Distance Learning
Allows professors to customize instruction
Overcomes constraints of time and place
Meets needs of rural students
Allows institutions to collaborate
Links colleges to K-12 systems
Builds partnerships with business
Offers professional and update education
Education Network of Maine
Eastern Oregon University serves a region the size of Pennsylvania with a total population of 160,000\
Oklahoma State University developed programs for high schools when it raised its entrance requirements and the public schools had no way to offer the necessary courses
Partnerships: NTU, a separately accredited institution, drawing upon the courses of 46 member colleges, offers master’s degree programs and advanced short courses for engineers. Classes are transmitted by satellite and received in facilities provided by participating companies.
Update: UT at Knoxville offers series of teleconference for state’s law enforcement personnel; Oregon State has programs in agriculture

31. Uses of Technology Meets needs of handicapped students
Extends the institution’s reach
Maine imports library science graduate degree program from South Carolina
NTU programs are offered in Asia
California Virtual University markets in the Pacific Rim
Offers economies of scale

32. “…with good learning materials, effective networks, and proper support, students can learn better at home than in class.”
P. 16.
Sir John Daniel, 1997

33. What are the issues in distance learning?

34. Which Approach?
Individual learning primarily via asynchronous communication
Group teaching via synchronous communication

35. Issues Role of professor Time Plagiarism Unreliable sources
From course topic
From students
From teachers
Plagiarism
Unreliable sources

36. Does distance learning technology facilitate access, lower costs, and maintain quality?
Look at mega-universities that teach over 100,000 students via distance education. 11 in world, all outside of the US, that enroll 2.8 million students. (In US, 3,500 colleges enroll 14 million--$12,500 per student. Mega-universities: $350 per student. When compared to costs in their own countries, somewhere between half to 10% of costs.