1. Violence, Inequality and Poverty in the Americas
Presentation to the Poverty Reduction Network
Andrew Morrison
Inter-American Development Bank
November 11, 2002

2. Are there any good shorthand measures of violence?
Homicides?
Intra-family violence?

3. Homicide rates by world region, 2000
Source: WHO, World Report on Violence

4. WORLD HOMICIDE RATE (per 100,000 persons)
8.86 9 8 7
6.35
5.93
5.82 6
5.47 5
Source:
M. Buvinic & A. Morrison, “Living in a Violent World”, Foreign Policy #118.

5. Low, medium and high violence countries: mid 1990s
(homicide rate >20)
Medium violence
(10<homicide. rate<20)
Low violence
Homicide rate < 10
Colombia (61.6)
Venezuela (16.0)
Nicaragua (8.4)
El Salvador (55.6)
Ecuador (15.3)
Guyana (6.6)
Brazil (23.0)
Mexico (15.9)
Costa Rica (5.4)
Bahamas (14.9)
Argentina (4.7)
Paraguay (12.6)
Uruguay (4.4)
Trinidad/Tob (12.1)
Chile (3.0)
Panama (10.9)
Source: WHO World Report on Violence

6. PREVALENCE OF DOMESTIC VIOLENCE IN LATIN AMERICA
Percentage of women victimized by physical violence,
Chile
Colombia
Nicaragua
Paraguay
Perú
Note: various sources.

7. Inequality matters World Bank study (Fajnzylber, Lederman and Loayza)
34 countries, , yearly data.
Identify determinants of homicide and robbery rates
Inequality matters:
increase in Gini leads to increase in both homicide rate and robbery rates;
larger increase in long run because of inertia
Level of GDP per capita is not statistically significant, but growth rate is
 5% drop in GDP increases robbery rate by 50%

8. And poverty? Not explicitly included in World Bank study
Exploratory econometric analysis by Londoño y Guerrero on determinants of homicide rates for 17 countries,
poverty does matter; so does income
distribution
confirmed for recent analysis of “delitos contra el patrimonio económico” in Colombia (Yepes Delgado, 2000)

9. ECONOMIC COSTS OF VIOLENCE IN SELECTED LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES*
* % of GDP
Source: Juan Luis Londoño “Epidemiología económica de la violencia urbana”

10. Earnings impact of severe physical violence against women50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Mean monthly earnings in Santiago, 1997
Without abuse
With abuse
US$
61%
less

11. Elements of the IDB’s response
Not all violence is the same
Undertake serious situational diagnostic
Focus on risk factors
Emphasize prevention, but recognize that control is essential
Evaluate, evaluate, evaluate
Loan projects approved to-date:
Colombia, El Salvador, Jamaica, Uruguay
Many intra-family violence TCs

12. SERIOUS CRIMES AVOIDED PER MILLION DOLLARS SPENT, CALIFORNIA (1998)
300
250
200
150
100 50
Home
visits
Family
support
Graduation
incentives
Intensive
supervision
Three strikes
law
Source: Greenwood, Peter