1.
Presented By:
Aurobinda Prasad
Vice President
Kotak Commodities Services Pvt. Ltd.

2. Kharif 2016-17 Crop Prospects and Inflation Outlook

3. 46% - food and beverages share in CPI
Higher vegetables and pulses price- kept 2016 YTD inflation higher
Sugar retail price hit Rs. 40/Kg
Non-food inflation- muted; thanks to fuel price- globally low

4. Oil & Commodity Price collapsed; crude down 15% in past 2 years
Fiscal deficit –narrowed down
De- bottleneck in supply chain
Last year drought, this year Normal monsoon- better crop prospects
2015 avg. CPI : 4.91%, YTD 2016 : 5.48%; Coming three months – critical
Kharif Harvesting to pull prices down

5. YTD 2016 avg. inflation= 7%
2015 avg. inflation= 4.10%
Food inflation fell to 8.23% in August vs % in July
Vegetable inflation – sharp decline from 28.05% in July to 0.17% August ( Excess supply)
Should there be a rate cut in October or December?
0.25% likely – December!!!!

6. Repo rate steady @ 6.5%- since April
Last two years- Repo rate & statutory rates – dropped gradually
Central bank’s endeavor- to keep the interest rate lower- inflation target below 4% in 2017
We expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to lower rates by 25bps in Q4 16, to 6.25%

7. Kharif Crop Sowing Crosses Normal Sowing Area as on 23rd September
Kharif Crop Sowing Crosses Normal Sowing Area  as on 23rd September
Acreage under pulses higher: - government’s effort to push farmers
Oil seed acreage up- specifically Soybeans and Mustard seed
Sugar cane- acreage down, farmers are still reluctant – arrears issue
Cotton sowing – down- June rainfall , whitefly attack- last year crop damage
Crop
Area sown in
Area sown in
Change
Rice
387.04
377.35 3%
Pulses
145.84
112.93
29%
Coarse Cereals
189.58
183.59
Oilseeds
189.16
183.71
Sugarcane
45.77
49.6
-8%
Jute & Mesta
7.59
7.73
-2%
Cotton
102.55
115.98
-12%
Total 4%
Lakh Ha
In total acreage up by 4%, good indication, eye on YIELD

8. Area and Yield- is expected to be better
1st Advance Estimates of production of major Kharif crops for  
Food grains: Production of Kharif Food grains estimated at million tonnes a new record, up by 9% from last year, also 7.65 million tons higher than 5 years average production
Oil seeds: million tons
Soy bean:  14.22 million tonnes/ Industry expects around 10 million tons
Groundnut:  6.50 million tonnes
Castor seed: 1.73 million tonnes
Cotton: million bales ( 1 bale= 170 kgs)/ We expect around 34 million bales
Sugar cane: 305 million tonnes. Three consecutive years production is set lower
“ Estimated production of most of the crops during current Kharif season is projected to be higher as compared to their production as per 4th Advance Estimates for ”
Area and Yield- is expected to be better

9. South West Monsoon- Set to withdraw
South West Monsoon- Set to withdraw
Earlier projection 104% LPA: IMD, SKYMET, Global agencies
As of latest report – monsoon is recorded around 97% - Weak LA NINA
Note: 96 to 104%- Termed as Normal monsoon
Dispersion of rain – better this year- good for crops- sowing/Yield
Delay in monsoon withdrawal - Hope to reach towards 98+%, 10 days left- likely better rain in south peninsula region

10. Viewpoints Overall expectation is positive for 2016-17 Kharif crop
Viewpoints
Overall expectation is positive for Kharif crop
Record food grain production in
Pulses production may rise. Rabi crop is expected to improve- ample water in the reservoir and adequate soil moisture
Inflation to subside - food inflation to ease in next two quarters , avg. below 6%

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