1. A TSUNAMI IN HIGHER EDUCATION? YES AND NO..
Presentation to the ITS Integrator User Group Annual Conference Cape Town
16 March 2015
Theuns Eloff

2. THE INEVITABILITY OF CHANGE
Norman Davies, the esteemed and often controversial historian: ‘Historical change is like an avalanche. The starting point is a snow-covered mountainside that looks solid. All changes take place under the surface and are rather invisible. But something is coming. What is impossible is to say when.’

3. THE INEVITABILITY OF CHANGE
Just as globalisation and technology have transformed other huge sectors of the economy in the past 20 years, in the next 20 years universities face transformation… Deep, radical and urgent transformation is required in higher education. The biggest risk is that as a result of complacency, caution or anxiety the pace of change is too slow and the nature of change is too incremental. The models of higher education that marched triumphantly across the globe in the second half of the 20th century are broken.
(An Avalanche is coming, Barber et al, 2013)

4. WHAT CAUSES THE AVALANCHE? (Barber et al 2013)
The global economy is changing (a flat world, knowledge)
The global economy is suffering (youth unemployment rising)
The cost of higher education is increasing faster than inflation (in 2013, not any more)
The value of a degree is falling (not just in commercial terms, but also at a standard level)
Content is ubiquitous (and the power of the academy is reduced)
The competition is heating up (global student opportunities)
The progress of educational technology is not the only but nevertheless an important factor in driving the avalanche

5. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE AVALANCHE
Universities will have to rethink their business model - catering largely for a generation connected from birth, under greater pressure to change
Global changes altered nature & pattern of demand for skills & knowledge in the workforce; the demand for well-educated, imaginative, collaborative, confident people who take personal responsibility and go the extra mile (‘creative creators’) increases.
Globalisation is not only bringing diversity to countries’ populations & large cities, but also enhancing the number of potential students who ‘shop’ globally for the best higher education offerings. This trend will accelerate as public funding for higher education around the world is reduced and replaced by private funding such as loans or direct payments.
(An Avalanche is coming, Barber et al, 2013)

6. DISTINCT FEATURES OF UNIVERSITIES UNDER THREAT
Research:
Costs are growing, only a few can compete
Other focused players are gaining in influence
Degrees:
Awarding power, not only universities
Do you need a degree to progress in the world?
City and regional prosperity
Remains important, but relatively so as others join
Faculty:
Proximity unnecessary to create academic community
Teaching from anywhere, in multi-modes

7. DISTINCT FEATURES OF UNIVERSITIES UNDER THREAT
Students:
Face to face not only option (not even the best?)
Digital communities
Desire to be taught by the best
Governance and administration
Proximity and concentration unnecessary
Pressure to have fewer
Curriculum
Ownership by academics relativized
MOOC’s, but certification and structure a challenge

8. DISTINCT FEATURES OF UNIVERSITIES UNDER THREAT (2)
Teaching-learning
Variety of modes of delivery, customised for the client
Employers still skeptical about online, but should change
More focused on skills
Assessment
Focus not on seat time nor credits, but demonstrating competence in a series of tests that can be done online and at home
Experience
Can also be provided elsewhere as meet-ups, youth clubs, and learning communities develop
But not so clear, depending on culture..

9. THE AVALANCHE IN HE: SUMMARY
Underlying driving force is educational technology
But more: confluence of factors ranging from globalization, internet, new attitude amongst youth, need for new skills…
It will probably result in five models of universities
Model 1: the elite university
Model 2: the mass university
Model 3: the niche university
Model 4: the local university
Model 5: the lifelong learning mechanism
But it will not have the same effect all over the world
There are other factors that will impact on it
(An Avalanche is coming, Barber et al, 2013)

10. WHAT ABOUT SOUTH AFRICA?
Universities by and large less willing to think transformatively)
Government on a crusade for a different kind of transformation
Educational technology and especially infrastructure less developed here
Access to educational technology (and connectivity) less available (especially in rural areas) and more expensive
The white paper on distance education provided some hope, but nothing has happened since then
Too few SA universities well enough managed to meet the challenge

11. WHAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING IN SA?
Ordinary 'distance' education by correspondence, sometimes assisted by messages and Youtube videos
Face to face teaching-learning enriched by educational technology, ranging from power point presentations to video clips to class notes disseminated beforehand
The videotaping of face to face lectures, made available to contact students on a site for future reference (or first reference!)

12. WHAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING IN SA?
The in-time broadcasting of studio-based lectures to a variety of centres, supported by so called 'white board technology'
The communication of study materials to far away delivery sites, where face to face support is provided regularly by facilitators
Use of an educational learning systems to enhance communication between lecturers and students (whether on- or off campus)
Pure online courses, mainly post-graduate, supplemented by regular face to face sessions

13. WHAT SHOULD BE DONE IN SOUTH AFRICA?
Educational technology must develop even further
Availability of PC's for poor students must improve
Availability of broadband must improve, especially in rural areas
The cost of broadband must decrease – a pipe dream?
The ‘school’ pipeline must work - need I say more?
Traditional face to face teaching must be enriched with educational technology, to form a foundation…
Academics’ anchor is still in traditional academia
The double challenge of access and quality, going hand in hand with numbers and focus (and the fact that highly paid professors avoid undergraduate teaching)

14. POINTS TO PONDER…
Globally a few ‘online’ universities, but not all universities can be online, otherwise the pipeline of academics won’t exist
The complexity of the educational technology wave:
Online lecturing: early international evidence that quality of teaching- learning online can be better than face-to-face, as all interactions are explicit and can be analysed and improved upon
Online support must consider the time and people it will take
Will SA learners from a dysfunctional system be able to work more independently in an online environment?
A variety of modes of presentation… more clarity needed
The relativity of contact and distance modes (near and far)
Adequate access to knowledge resources (connectivity?)
In the quest for better practical skills acquisition in a variety of professions, we need the binary divide to be reinstated

15. WHY DO PEOPLE AND INSTITUTIONS CHANGE?
I was serving on a battleship that had been on maneuvers in heavy weather and was on bridge as night fell. Visibility was poor, so the captain remained on the bridge.
Shortly after dark, the lookout reported: “Light, bearing on the starboard bow”. “Is it steady or moving astern?” the captain asked. “Steady sir”, which meant we were on a dangerous collision course with that ship.

16. WHY DO PEOPLE AND INSTITUTIONS CHANGE?
The captain instructed the signalman: “Signal that ship: we are on collision course, advise you change course 20 degrees”.
Back came the signal: “Advisable for you to change course”.
The captain said: “Send, I’m a captain, change course 20 degrees”.
“I’m a seaman second class” came the reply. “You had better change course”.
A furious captain spat out: “Send, I’m a battleship. Change course 20 degrees”.

17. WHY DO PEOPLE AND INSTITUTIONS CHANGE?
Back came the flashing light: “I’m a lighthouse”.
We changed course!

18. THANK YOU..
ANY QUESTIONS?