0. Bluewater District School Board
Long Term Accommodation Strategy
Update Report
September 6, 2016

1. Why? In 2014: The Board completed a Long Term Accommodation Strategy
In 2016: the Board completed an update to the LTAS recommendations that took into consideration – 2014/15 & 2015/16 enrolment actuals, updated enrolment projections, updated condition data and recent accommodation decisions made by the Board. In addition, there have been a number of funding and grant changes made by the Ministry of Education since the original report.
Current Situation:
The 5 year Board-wide renewal event costs total $285 million
Board-wide FCI = 49.8%
Annual operations costs average approximately $18.1 million
Currently (2015/16) the Board operates at:
74% utilization of permanent space on the elementary panel
Projected utilization rate of ~80%
63% utilization of permanent space on the secondary panel
Projected utilization rate of ~67% 1

2. Updated Enrolment Projection and Accommodation Review Recommendations
Review Areas
Updated Enrolment Projection and Accommodation Review Recommendations

3. RA01 (Bruce Peninsula/Peninsula Shores)3

4. RA01 (Bruce Peninsula/Peninsula Shores) Status Quo Enrolment Projections
Status Quo Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Amabel-Sauble Community School
256
143
151
147
146
Bruce Peninsula District School (Elem)
249
182
164
145
Hepworth Central School
568
282
261
250
245
Peninsula Shores District School (Elem)
326
345
358
356
357
St. Edmunds Public School
107 33 36 41 43
Total Elementary Enrolment
1,506
984
970
940
936
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-522
-536
-566
-570
Total Utilization Rate
65%
64%
62%
Status Quo Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Bruce Peninsula District School (Sec)
159 55 81 76 67
Peninsula Shores District School (Sec)
432
232
233
244
252
Total Secondary Enrolment
591
288
313
320
319
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-303
-278
-271
-272
Total Utilization Rate
49%
53%
54%
Overall, the updated enrolment projections are fairly consistent with the original projections on a review area basis 4

5. RA01 (Bruce Peninsula/Peninsula Shores) Accommodation Decisions and Recommendations
ORIGINAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Close two elementary schools (St. Edmunds/Bruce Peninsula Elementary) and one secondary school (Bruce Peninsula Secondary)
Seek funding to construct 1 new elementary replacement facility (Bruce/St. Edmunds).
Consolidated secondary students to be redirected to Peninsula Shores DS (Secondary).
Hepworth Central School receives enrolment from the Hillcrest ‘satellite’ area and a portion of enrolment from the Derby closure (see RA03).
Amabel-Sauble CS receives enrolment from the GC Huston PS closure (see RA02).
RECENT ACCOMMODATION DECISIONS
Boundary reconfiguration for Hepworth Central School due to the closure of Derby PS starting September 2016 (see RA03)
UPDATED RECOMMENDATIONS
Scenario 1: Consistent with original recommendations
Scenario 2: Consistent with original recommendations, however Amabel-Sauble CS would be impacted by alternative recommendations made in another review area, whereby this facility would not receive enrolment from a school closure in RA02 (GC Huston). 5

6. RA01 (Bruce Peninsula/Peninsula Shores) Scenario 1 Enrolment Projections
Scenario 1 Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Amabel-Sauble Community School
256
143
225
219
221
Bruce Peninsula District School (Elem)
190
182
200
188
Hepworth Central School
568
282
261
250
245
Peninsula Shores District School (Elem)
326
345
358
356
357
St. Edmunds Public School 33
Total Elementary Enrolment
1,340
984
1,044
1,013
1,011
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-522
-296
-327
-329
Total Utilization Rate
65%
78%
76%
75%
Scenario 1 Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Bruce Peninsula District School (Sec) 55
Peninsula Shores District School (Sec)
432
232
313
320
319
Total Secondary Enrolment
288
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-303
-119
-112
-113
Total Utilization Rate
49%
73%
74%
If implemented, total capacity can be reduced by 325 spaces, resulting in a long term utilization rate of 75%
In addition, renewal needs could be reduced by $13.4 million with school closures 6

7. RA01 (Bruce Peninsula/Peninsula Shores) Scenario 2 Enrolment Projections
Scenario 2 Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Amabel-Sauble Community School
256
143
151
147
146
Bruce Peninsula District School (Elem)
190
182
200
188
Hepworth Central School
568
282
261
250
245
Peninsula Shores District School (Elem)
326
345
358
356
357
St. Edmunds Public School 33
Total Elementary Enrolment
1,340
984
970
940
936
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-522
-370
-400
-404
Total Utilization Rate
65%
72%
70%
Scenario 2 Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Bruce Peninsula District School (Sec) 55
Peninsula Shores District School (Sec)
432
232
313
320
319
Total Secondary Enrolment
288
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-303
-119
-112
-113
Total Utilization Rate
49%
73%
74%
If implemented, total capacity can be reduced by 325 spaces, resulting in a long term utilization rate of 71%
In addition, renewal needs could be reduced by $13.4 million with school closures 7

8. RA02 (Saugeen Shores, Arran-Elderslie, North Kincardine, North Brockton)8

9. RA02 (Saugeen Shores, Arran-Elderslie, North Kincardine, North Brockton) Status Quo Enrolment Projections
Status Quo Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Arran Tara Elementary School
400
386
410
426
421
G C Huston Public School
432
243
264
260
270
Chesley District CS (Elem)
329
352
363
351
349
Northport Elementary School
416
428
431
437
Paisley Central School
245
136
118
109
Port Elgin-Saugeen Central School
694
591
632
658
687
Total Elementary Enrolment
2,510
2,124
2,214
2,235
2,273
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-386
-296
-275
-237
Total Utilization Rate
85%
88%
89%
91%
Status Quo Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Chesley District CS (Sec)
189
159
179
193
186
Saugeen District SS
933
545
531
683
619
Total Secondary Enrolment
1,122
704
709
876
805
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-418
-413
-246
-317
Total Utilization Rate
63%
78%
72%
Overall, the updated enrolment projections are higher than the original projections on a review area basis
This is likely the result of local employment trends (i.e. Bruce Power) as well as recent accommodation decisions 9

10. RA02 (Saugeen Shores, Arran-Elderslie, North Kincardine, North Brockton) Accommodation Decisions and Recommendations
ORIGINAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Convert Saugeen DSS to a 7-12 facility; Northport ES and Port-Elgin CS to JK-6 facilities
Closure of GC Huston with enrolment directed to Amabel-Sauble Community School, Northport ES and Saugeen DSS.
Boundary adjustment between Northport ES and Port Elgin-Saugeen Central School.
Closure of Paisley elementary with enrolment directed to Chesley District CS (Elem).
Closure of Chesley District CS secondary portion with enrolment directed to Saugeen DSS and John Diefenbaker SS.
Arran-Tara ES receives enrolment from Derby PS and Sullivan PS closures.
RECENT ACCOMMODATION DECISIONS
Kinghurst Community School closed September 2014
Chesley District High School became a grade JK-12 school in September 2014.
Boundary reconfiguration for Arran-Tara ES due to the closure of Derby PS starting in September 2016 (see RA03). 10

11. RA02 (Saugeen Shores, Arran-Elderslie, North Kincardine, North Brockton) Accommodation Decisions and Recommendations
UPDATED RECOMMENDATIONS
Scenario 1: Consistent with original recommendations (i.e model).
Due to recent accommodation decisions, the recommendation has changed slightly to redirect enrolment from Chesley District closure to Saugeen DSS and Walkerton District (Sec)
Scenario 2: Alternative scenario that maintains current grade structure (i.e. JK-8 and 9-12)
As a result of this alternate scenario, some of the recommendations in Scenario 1 were revised. Namely, the recommended closure of GC Huston has been removed, as there would not be sufficient space in the surrounding schools to accommodate the additional enrolment from the closure if the current grade JK-8 elementary structure is maintained. 11

12. RA02 (Saugeen Shores, Arran-Elderslie, North Kincardine, North Brockton) Scenario 1 Enrolment Projections
Scenario 1 Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Arran Tara Elementary School
400
386
410
426
421
G C Huston Public School
243
Chesley District CS (Elem)
539
352
481
459
457
Northport Elementary School
416
404
405
415
Paisley Central School
136
Port Elgin-Saugeen Central School
694
591
580
602
625
Total Elementary Enrolment
2,043
2,124
1,876
1,892
1,919
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-386
-167
-151
-124
Total Utilization Rate
85%
92%
93%
94%
Scenario 1 Projected 7-12 Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Chesley District CS (Sec)
159
Saugeen District SS (7-12)
933
545
831
992
935
Total Enrolment
704
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-418
-102 59 2
Total Utilization Rate
63%
89%
106%
100%
If implemented, total capacity can be reduced by 656 spaces (18%), resulting in a long term utilization rate of ~100%.
In addition, renewal needs could be reduced by $10 million with school closures 12

13. RA02 (Saugeen Shores, Arran-Elderslie, North Kincardine, North Brockton) Scenario 2 Enrolment Projections
Scenario 2 Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Arran Tara Elementary School
400
386
410
426
421
G C Huston Public School
432
243
264
260
270
Chesley District CS (Elem)
539
352
481
459
457
Northport Elementary School
416
428
431
437
Paisley Central School
136
Port Elgin-Saugeen Central School
694
591
632
658
687
Total Elementary Enrolment
2,475
2,124
2,214
2,235
2,273
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-386
-261
-240
-202
Total Utilization Rate
85%
89%
90%
92%
Scenario 2 Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Chesley District CS (Sec)
159
Saugeen District SS
933
545
567
722
656
Total Secondary Enrolment
704
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-418
-366
-211
-277
Total Utilization Rate
63%
61%
77%
70%
If implemented, total capacity can be reduced by 242 spaces, resulting in a long term utilization rate of 86%
In addition, renewal needs could be reduced by $3 million with school closures 13

14. RA03 (Owen Sound, Chatsworth, West Meaford, East Georgian Bluffs)14

15. Status Quo Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
RA03 (Owen Sound, Chatsworth, West Meaford, East Georgian Bluffs) Status Quo Enrolment Projections
Status Quo Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1**
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Alexandra Community School
271
196
222
247
273
Bayview Public School*
219
Derby Public School (recently closed)
Dufferin Elementary School*
200
Hillcrest Elementary School
660
526
625
599
612
Holland-Chatsworth Central School
340
248
234
226
230
Keppel-Sarawak Elementary School
377
320
368
369
371
Sullivan Community School
236
148
150
141
145
Sydenham Community School*
528
New Owen Sound CVI Elementary*
800
778
814
Total Elementary Enrolment
2,684
2,385
2,377
2,383
2,446
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-797
-307
-301
-238
Total Utilization Rate
75%
89%
91%
*Bayview PS, Dufferin ES and Sydenham CS will be closed effective September The New Owen Sound CVI Elementary will be open effective September 2017
**Total Capacity for Year 1 = 3,182
Most of the updated projections are consistent with the original projections, with the exception of Keppel-Sarawak ES and Sydenham CS
For those schools, the actual enrolment in recent years was higher than originally anticipated 15

16. Status Quo Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
RA03 (Owen Sound, Chatsworth, West Meaford, East Georgian Bluffs) Status Quo Enrolment Projections
Status Quo Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Owen Sound District SS (formerly West Hill SS)
1,242
1,330
1,185
1,178
1,204
Total Secondary Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space 88
-57
-64
-38
Total Utilization Rate
107%
95%
97%
Overall, the updated enrolment projections are relatively consistent with the original projections on a review area basis 16

17. RA03 (Owen Sound, Chatsworth, West Meaford, East Georgian Bluffs) Accommodation Decisions and Recommendations
ORIGINAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Convert both Owen Sound CVI and West Hill SS to grade 7-12 facilities.
Convert Alexandra CS and Sydenham CS to JK-6 facilities with grade 7-8 enrolment directed to Owen Sound CVI. Move grade 7-8 program from Hillcrest ES to West Hill SS.
Closure of Bayview PS with JK-6 enrolment directed to Alexandra CS and Sydenham CS and grade 7-8 enrolment to Owen Sound CVI.
Closure of Dufferin ES with enrolment directed to Hillcrest CS.
Closure of Derby PS with enrolment directed to Hillcrest CS, Arran-Tara CS, Holland-Chatsworth CS and Hepworth CS
Closure of Sullivan CS with enrolment directed to Holland-Chatsworth CS/Arran-Tara CS.
Owen Sound CVI receives a portion of enrolment from Georgian Bay SS closure
Keppel Sarawak ES receives enrolment from a Hillcrest ‘satellite’ boundary.
Submit business case to Ministry of Education to seek funding for a new replacement school for Hillcrest ES. 17

18. RA03 (Owen Sound, Chatsworth, West Meaford, East Georgian Bluffs) Accommodation Decisions and Recommendations
RECENT ACCOMMODATION DECISIONS
Closure of Derby PS (September 2016). Students redirected to surrounding schools.
Owen Sound CVI students directed to Owen Sound District SS (formerly West Hill SS) effective September 2016
Closure of Bayview and Sydenham elementary schools with enrolment directed to Owen Sound CVI (conversion) (2017)
Closure of Dufferin elementary school (2017)
UPDATED RECOMMENDATIONS
Board staff has worked through the original recommendations made in the 2014 report.
It is recommended that the Board consider the closure of Sullivan CS with enrolment redirect to Holland-Chatsworth Central School.
Due to poor condition and high renewal needs, it is recommended that the Board seek funding for two replacement facilities for Owen Sound District SS (formerly West Hill SS) and Hillcrest ES. Business Case Submission In Process 18

19. Scenario 1 Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
RA03 (Owen Sound, Chatsworth, West Meaford, East Georgian Bluffs) Scenario 1 Enrolment Projections
Scenario 1 Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1**
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Alexandra Community School
271
196
222
247
273
Bayview Public School*
219
Dufferin Elementary School*
200
Hillcrest Elementary School
660
526
625
599
612
Holland-Chatsworth Central School
340
248
383
367
375
Keppel-Sarawak Elementary School
377
320
368
369
371
Sullivan Community School
148
Sydenham Community School*
528
New Owen Sound CVI Elementary*
800
778
814
Total Elementary Enrolment
2,448
2,385
2,377
2,383
2,446
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-797
-71
-65 -2
Total Utilization Rate
75%
97%
100%
*Bayview PS, Dufferin ES and Sydenham CS will be closed effective September The New Owen Sound CVI Elementary will be open effective September 2017
**Total Capacity for Year 1 = 3,182 19

20. Scenario 1 Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
RA03 (Owen Sound, Chatsworth, West Meaford, East Georgian Bluffs) Scenario 1 Enrolment Projections
Scenario 1 Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Owen Sound District SS (formerly West Hill SS)
1,242
1,330
1,185
1,178
1,204
Total Secondary Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space 88
-57
-64
-38
Total Utilization Rate
107%
95%
97%
If implemented, total capacity can be reduced by 236 spaces resulting in a long term utilization rate of approximately 100%
In addition, renewal needs could be reduced by more than $4 million with school closure
If replacement facilities for Owen Sound District SS (formerly West Hill SS) and Hillcrest ES are approved by the Ministry of Education, the renewal needs could be further reduced by more than $37.5 million 20

21. RA04 (Huron-Kinloss, Kincardine South)21

22. RA04 (Huron-Kinloss, Kincardine South) Status Quo Enrolment Projections
Status Quo Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Elgin Market Public School
222
193
233
248
263
Huron Heights Public School
344
325
337
397
416
Kincardine Township-Tiverton Public School
375
321
350
367
388
Lucknow Central Public School
306
132
120
112
114
Ripley-Huron Community School
351
272
264
242
239
Total Elementary Enrolment
1,598
1,243
1,303
1,366
1,420
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-355
-295
-232
-178
Total Utilization Rate
78%
82%
85%
89%
Status Quo Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Kincardine DSS
714
451
522
547
585
Total Secondary Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-263
-192
-167
-129
Total Utilization Rate
63%
73%
77%
82%
Overall, the updated enrolment projections are higher than the original projections on a review area basis.
Most of the differences in facility enrolment projections are due to actual enrolment in recent years that was either higher (i.e. Huron Heights PS, Kincardine Township-Tiverton PS) or lower (i.e. Elgin Market PS) than originally anticipated. 22

23. RA04 (Huron-Kinloss, Kincardine South) Accommodation Decisions and Recommendations
ORIGINAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Closure of Lucknow Central PS with enrolment redirected to Hillcrest Central School (see RA07)
Monitor enrolments at new single track French immersion program at Elgin Market PS
RECENT ACCOMMODATION DECISIONS
Elgin Market PS has become a JK-8 French immersion only schools (September 2013)
Kincardine Township-Tiverton PS has become a JK-3 English stream only school (September 2013)
Huron Heights PS has become a Gr 4- 8 English stream only school (September 2013)
UPDATED RECOMMENDATIONS
No changes to original recommendations 23

24. RA04 (Huron-Kinloss, Kincardine South) Scenario 1 Enrolment Projections
Scenario 1 Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Elgin Market Public School
222
193
233
248
263
Huron Heights Public School
344
325
337
397
416
Kincardine Township-Tiverton Public School
375
321
350
367
388
Lucknow Central Public School
132
Ripley-Huron Community School
351
272
264
242
239
Total Elementary Enrolment
1,292
1,243
1,183
1,254
1,306
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-355
-109
-38 14
Total Utilization Rate
78%
92%
97%
101%
Scenario 1 Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Kincardine DSS
714
451
522
547
585
Total Secondary Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-263
-192
-167
-129
Total Utilization Rate
63%
73%
77%
82%
If implemented, total capacity can be reduced by 306 spaces, resulting in a long term utilization rate of ~90%
In addition, renewal needs could be reduced by approximately $650,000 with school closure 24

25. RA05 (Hanover, West Grey, West Southgate)25

26. RA05 (Hanover, West Grey, West Southgate) Status Quo Enrolment Projections
Status Quo Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Dawnview Public School
239
193
207
198
194
Egremont Community School
210
204
186
168
164
Hanover Heights Community School
517
382
357
368
362
Normanby Community School
317
165
166
160
Spruce Ridge Elementary School
516
409
402
428
433
John Diefenbaker SS (Elem)
161
139
143
136
Total Elementary Enrolment
1,960
1,521
1,461
1,463
1,449
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-439
-499
-497
-511
Total Utilization Rate
78%
75%
74%
Status Quo Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
John Diefenbaker SS (Sec)
918
637
563
522
515
Total Secondary Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-281
-355
-396
-403
Total Utilization Rate
69%
61%
57%
56%
Overall, the updated enrolment projections are relatively consistent with the original projections on a review area basis 26

27. RA05 (Hanover, West Grey, West Southgate) Accommodation Decisions and Recommendations
ORIGINAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Expand the grade 7-8 program at John Diefenbaker SS (Elem) to encompass Spruce Ridge ES and Normanby CS.
Closure of Egremont CS with enrolment directed to Spruce Ridge ES and Normanby CS.
Convert Spruce Ridge ES and Normanby CS to JK-6 facilities with grade 7-8 enrolment to Diefenbaker SS (Elem).
John Diefenbaker SS (Sec) receives a portion of secondary enrolment from Chesley District CS consolidation.
Spruce Ridge ES receives a portion of enrolment from Beavercrest Community School.
Business Case to the Ministry of Education to seek funds for a new replacement grade 7-12 facility to replace the existing John Diefenbaker SS.
RECENT ACCOMMODATION DECISIONS
In 2015, the Board received notice on funding for construction of a replacement facility for John Diefenbaker SS (set to open in September 2018).
UPDATED RECOMMENDATIONS
It is still recommended that the Board close Egremont CS
Due to recent accommodation decisions (i.e. replacement facility), it is recommended that the Board maintains current grade structure at remaining facilities. In addition, John Diefenbaker SS will no longer receive enrolment from the Chesley District (Sec) closure. 27

28. RA05 (Hanover, West Grey, West Southgate) Scenario 1 Enrolment Projections
Scenario 1 Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Dawnview Public School
239
193
207
198
194
Egremont Community School
204
Hanover Heights Community School
517
382
357
368
362
Normanby Community School
317
295
283
274
Spruce Ridge Elementary School
516
409
500
524
528
John Diefenbaker SS (Elem)
161
139
143
136
Total Elementary Enrolment
1,750
1,521
1,503
1,508
1,495
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-439
-247
-242
-255
Total Utilization Rate
78%
86%
85%
Scenario 1 Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
John Diefenbaker SS (Sec)
576
637
563
522
515
Total Secondary Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-281
-13
-54
-61
Total Utilization Rate
69%
98%
91%
89%
If implemented, total capacity can be reduced by 552 spaces, resulting in a long term utilization rate of 86%
Renewal needs could be reduced by $44.5 million with school closure. 28

29. RA06 (Grey Highlands, Southgate East)29

30. RA06 (Grey Highlands, Southgate East) Status Quo Enrolment Projections
Status Quo Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Beavercrest Community School
314
192
170
182
181
Dundalk Highpoint School
322
207
228
248
264
Macphail Memorial Elementary School
600
507
519
502
498
Osprey Central School
351
327
297
301
Dundalk & Proton Community School
300
225
230
244
Total Elementary Enrolment
1,887
1,457
1,462
1,472
1,487
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-430
-425
-415
-400
Total Utilization Rate
77%
78%
79%
Status Quo Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Grey Highlands SS
1,011
622
617
686
668
Total Secondary Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-389
-394
-325
-343
Total Utilization Rate
61%
68%
66%
Overall, the updated enrolment projections were lower than the original projections for most schools
This is likely a result of an updated growth forecast for Grey County that was lower than the previous residential forecast used 30

31. RA06 (Grey Highlands, Southgate East) Accommodation Decisions and Recommendations
ORIGINAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Closure of Beavercrest CS with enrolment directed to Macphail Memorial ES, Spruce Ridge ES and Holland-Chatsworth CS.
Boundary change between Macphail Memorial ES, Dundalk Highpoint School and Dundalk & Proton CS.
Grey Highlands SS receives a portion of enrolment from the Georgian Bay SS closure.
RECENT ACCOMMODATION DECISIONS
No recent accommodation decisions
UPDATED RECOMMENDATIONS
No significant changes were made to the original recommendations
Lower enrolment projections in the area has likely eliminated the need to conduct a boundary change between Macphail Memorial ES, Highpoint School and Dundalk & Proton CS
In addition, due to recent accommodation decisions made by the Board (i.e. JK-12 replacement facility in Meaford), Grey Highlands SS will no longer receive a portion of enrolment from Georgian Bay SS closure. 31

32. RA06 (Grey Highlands, Southgate East) Scenario 1 Enrolment Projections
Scenario 1 Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Beavercrest Community School
192
Dundalk Highpoint School
322
207
228
248
264
Macphail Memorial Elementary School
600
507
647
638
633
Osprey Central School
351
327
314
297
301
Dundalk & Proton Community School
300
225
230
244
Total Elementary Enrolment
1,573
1,457
1,419
1,427
1,442
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-430
-154
-146
-131
Total Utilization Rate
77%
90%
91%
92%
Scenario 1 Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Grey Highlands SS
1,011
622
617
686
668
Total Secondary Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-389
-394
-325
-343
Total Utilization Rate
61%
68%
66%
If fully implemented, total capacity could be reduced by 314 spaces, resulting in long term utilization rates of approximately 82% for this review area
In addition, renewal needs could be reduced by more than $2.6 million with the elementary school closure 32

33. RA07 (South Bruce, Brockton South)33

34. RA07 (South Bruce, Brockton South) Status Quo Enrolment Projections
Status Quo Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Hillcrest Central School
245
106
103
101
100
Mildmay-Carrick Central School
268
144
129
109
Walkerton DSS (Elem)
445
369
328
308
305
Total Elementary Enrolment
958
619
561
518
509
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-339
-397
-440
-449
Total Utilization Rate
65%
59%
54%
53%
Status Quo Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Walkerton DSS (Sec)
468
342
328
271
256
Total Secondary Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-126
-140
-197
-212
Total Utilization Rate
73%
70%
58%
55%
Overall, the updated enrolment projections are relatively consistent with the original projections on a review area basis. 34

35. RA07 (South Bruce, Brockton South) Accommodation Decisions and Recommendations
ORIGINAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Closure of Mildmay-Carrick Central School with enrolment directed to Walkerton District (Elem).
Hillcrest Central School receives enrolment from the Lucknow PS closure (see RA04).
Monitor secondary enrolments at Walkerton District (Sec).
RECENT ACCOMMODATION DECISIONS
No recent accommodation decisions made by the Board
UPDATED RECOMMENDATIONS
No significant changes were made to original recommendations with the exception of Walkerton District (Sec)
Due to the secondary closure in RA02 (i.e. Chesley District), some enrolment has be redirected to Walkerton District Secondary School in the updated recommendations, which has resulted in an increased utilization of space at this facility. 35

36. RA07 (South Bruce, Brockton South) Scenario 1 Enrolment Projections
Scenario 1 Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Hillcrest Central School
245
106
223
213
215
Mildmay-Carrick Central School
144
Walkerton DSS (Elem)
445
369
457
417
409
Total Elementary Enrolment
690
619
680
630
623
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-339
-10
-60
-67
Total Utilization Rate
65%
99%
91%
90%
Scenario 1 Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Walkerton DSS (Sec)
468
342
471
425
405
Total Secondary Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-126 3
-43
-63
Total Utilization Rate
73%
101%
91%
87%
If fully implemented, this strategy could reduced capacity by 268 spaces, resulting in long term utilization rates of more than 89% for this review area
In addition, renewal needs would be reduced by approximately $3 million with the elementary school closure. 36

37. RA08 (Georgian Bay) 37

38. RA08 (Georgian Bay) Status Quo Enrolment Projections
Status Quo Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Beavervalley Community School
525
397
437
430
Meaford Community School
420
264
287
289
293
St. Vincent-Euphrasia Elementary School
357
311
328
326
314
Total Elementary Enrolment
1,302
972
1,051
1,045
1,038
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-330
-251
-257
-264
Total Utilization Rate
75%
81%
80%
Status Quo Projected Secondary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Georgian Bay SS
936
341
320
380
374
Total Secondary Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-595
-616
-556
-562
Total Utilization Rate
36%
34%
41%
40%
Overall, the updated enrolment projections are relatively consistent with the original projections on a review area basis. 38

39. RA08 (Georgian Bay) Accommodation Decisions and Recommendations
ORIGINAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Closure of Georgian Bay SS with enrolment directed to Owen Sound CVI and Grey Highlands secondary schools.
Attendance boundary change between Beaver Valley CS, Meaford CS and St. Vincent-Euphrasia ES.
Closure of Meaford CS and St. Vincent-Euphrasia ES with enrolment directed to a new JK-8 elementary replacement facility.
RECENT ACCOMMODATION DECISIONS
The Board recently submitted a Business Case to consolidate two elementary schools (Meaford Community School and St. Vincent-Euphrasia Elementary School) and one secondary school (Georgian Bay Secondary School) and construct a new JK-12 facility in September 2019.
In the interim, Meaford CS will close effective September All JK-3 enrolment in the area will attend St. Vincent and all grade 4-8 enrolment will attend Georgian Bay SS.
The MOE has recently approved this Business Case. 39

40. RA08 (Georgian Bay) Accommodation Decisions and Recommendations
UPDATED RECOMMENDATIONS
Board staff has worked through the original recommendations from the 2014 report and modified the recommendations made for this area in an effort to retain a secondary presence
The Board recently received approvals to consolidate two elementary schools and the secondary school and build a new grade JK-12 school as a replacement.
In addition, due to these recent accommodation decisions, the proposed boundary change with Beaver Valley Community School is no longer necessary 40

41. RA08 (Georgian Bay) Scenario 1 Enrolment Projections
Scenario 1 Projected Elementary Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Beavervalley Community School
525
397
437
430
Meaford Community School
St. Vincent-Euphrasia Elementary School
311
Total Elementary Enrolment
707
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-175
-88
-95
Total Utilization Rate
80%
83%
82%
Scenario 1 Projected JK-12 Enrolment Trends:
School/Facility
Capacity
Year 1
Year 5
Year 10
Year 15
Replacement JK-12 Georgian Bay Facility
1,033
605
934
995
981
Total JK-12 Enrolment
Total Surplus/Deficit Space
-331
-99
-38
-52
Total Utilization Rate
65%
90%
96%
95%
This strategy will eliminate 680 surplus spaces from the Board’s inventory, and result in long term utilization rates of above 90% for this review area
In addition, more than $40 million in renewal needs has been eliminated as a result of school closures in this area 41