1. R. Kolli, B. Nyenzi and L. Malone World Climate Programme Dept.
WMO CLIPS PROJECT : A GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR SEASONAL FORECAST APPLICATIONS
R. Kolli, B. Nyenzi and L. Malone
World Climate Programme Dept.
World Meteorological Organization
Geneva, Switzerland
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

2. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Climate Application
Climate information used for more than just curiosity value
Climate information that influences decision making
Climate information that is effectively converted into ‘climate knowledge’
Unless the information provided positively influences at least one decision it has NO VALUE
Thanks to: Holger Meinke
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

3. Value of Climate Information and Services to Society
the nature of the dependence of socio-economic activities on climatic factors
reliability of climate products including awareness of the associated uncertainties and their implications to decision-making
accessibility of credible and useful climate information for decision making
liaison between users and climate information providers
the ability of users to act on the basis of climate information
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

4. World Climate Applications and Services Programme (WCASP) & CLIPS
WCASP & CLIPS aim to provide an essential link between climate prediction/information and their applications:
Primary objectives:
to develop the capacity of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to take advantage of recent advances in the science of climate and in the processing and dissemination of climate information, and
to pass on the benefits of the improved climate services to the user community.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

5. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
CLIPS : need for inter-programme coordination recognized right from the beginning
Congress requested the Secretary-General and the president of CCl to take appropriate action to ensure interprogramme coordination of the development of the Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) project within the framework of CCl in coordination with the Joint Scientific Committee for WCRP and with necessary interaction with other constituent bodies of WMO and GCOS. Congress emphasized the need for provision of required data and other necessary information in order to ensure optimal development and global dissemination of climate prediction services…(Paragraph , Report of the 12th Session of the World Meteorological Congress, 1995)
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

6. Climate Products, Information and Services
Databases of information gathered over many years
Predictions of climate variability over the next season or two (seasonal to inter-annual forecast)
Climate information is just one of the elements in the decision making matrix
The term “services” refers to the delivery of climate information and predictions from the scientific sources to end-users
A service is a service only when it is used; our goal is to make people use climate services in real-world context
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

7. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
CLIPS Main Tasks
Enhance capacity of NMHSs in SIPs and their applications
Develop guidelines and methodologies on SIPs and applications on climate sensitive sectors and systems
Provide users with information based on new scientific understanding and establish links between providers of and users of SIPs
Work closely with international research community, especially WCRP, to exploit latest research advances as well as to address research needs.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

8. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Capacity Building
Establish CLIPS Focal Points;
Global/regional networking of CLIPS Focal Points;
CLIPS Training Workshops;
Development of CLIPS training Curriculum;
Engaging end-users through workshops, projects and Regional Climate Outlook Forums.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

9. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
CLIPS Focal Points
A global network of experts specially trained in climate science, statistical modelling and prediction, applications and project management.
CLIPS Focal Points ensure national and regional coordination of climate information and prediction products.
Reporting of CLIPS activities by CLIPS Focal Points, and sharing the reports through WMO portal.
Close coordination of CLIPS activities through regional working groups on climate related matters (WGCRMs)
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

10. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Applications
Coordination of demonstration and pilot projects;
Involvement of Focal Points in demonstration and pilot projects;
Assessment of impacts of climate services on applications;
Examination of data requirements and tailored climate products.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

11. Infrastructure and Forecasting
Facilitate access to products of Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of long-range forecasts;
Development of Regional Climate Centres (RCCs);
Examination of forecast presentation/ communication methods;
Best practices;
Downscaling/Empirical Tools/Regional Climate Models;
Sustained Regional Climate Outlook Forum sessions;
Joint activities with research programmes such as WCRP.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

12. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
A component of CLIPS
First established in 1996 (Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe), just before the major 1997–1998 El Niño event
Regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of climate forecasts and outlooks
Bring together providers of and users of SIPs; facilitate partnership approach.
Constitute an important vehicle, particularly in developing countries, for providing advance information on the likely climate features of the upcoming season, and for preparing a consensus product from amongst the multiple available individual predictions.
RCOFs stimulate the development of climate capacity in the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the area, and do much to generate decisions and activities that mitigate adverse impacts of climate and help communities adapt to climate variability.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

13. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
RCOFs
RCOFs active in several regions where NMHSs meet to develop regional consensus on SIP.
Typically involve a PRE-COF session to jointly work towards the consensus outlook, and COF session to disseminate and assist in user interpretation.
More than 40 forums held throughout the world.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

14. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
RCOFs Worldwide
West Coast of South America
Caribbean
West Africa
Southern Africa
Greater
Horn of Africa
Southeastern South America
Pacific
Asia
Central America
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

15. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
CCl-XIV OPAG 3: CLIPS
ET 3.1 Research needs: intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual prediction
Sector-specific needs, verification and assessment of capabilities
Methodologies for creation and presentation of prediction products
Support to user decision process
ET 3.2 CLIPS Operations, Verification and User Liaison
Assess skill of climate predictions and potential to meet user requirements
Guide to best operational practices
Requirements of NMHSs, RCCs and users for verification information
Costs and benefits of of climate products and services; user needs
ET 3.3 El Niño/La Niña
Definitions and indices; Atlas of regional impacts; WMO Updates
Rapporteurs on Agrometeorology and on Hydrology
Coordinate with WCRP, AREP, CBS, CAS, DPM, Space/GEO, RCD (LDCs and more), Global Producing Centres of LRF, and with OPAG 4
AREP: Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme
Programme sur la recherche atmosphérique et l’Environnement
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

16. CCl-XIV OPAG 4: Climate Applications and Services
ET 4.1 Climate and Health
Heat-Health Warning Systems
Health-related information & early warning systems; infectious diseases; Health and climate change
ET 4.2 Climate and Energy
Climate services for energy development and operations
Climate aspects of renewable energy sources
ET 4.3 Climate and Tourism
Role of climate in touristic frequentation/destination
Sustainable tourism
ET 4.4 Urban and Building Climatology
Urban and building climate science; Education and Training
Urban modelling;
Partnership building; Guidelines; Technical Notes
Coordination with OPAG3 – CLIPS;
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

17. WCASP/CLIPS activities continue
Congress XV (2007) endorses continuation of WCASP/CLIPS; calls for an Implementation Plan for future evolution of CLIPS.
Capacity building; training workshops
RCOF sessions; extension to more regions
WMO Conference on « Living with Climate Variability and Change: Understanding the Uncertainties and Managing the Risks », July 17-21, 2006, Espoo, Finland; integration of outcomes into CLIPS future plans.
Development of CLIPS webpages + Curriculum
Expansion/revitalization of the CLIPS Focal Point Network
RCC development; WMO designation process underway
Guidance documents on topical issues (heat-health warning systems; verification of LRF, best practices in user-liaison, …)
TNs: Energy; Urban climatology; Socio-Economic benefits
Partnership building, especially for Health/Energy/Tourism
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

18. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
The Espoo Conference
WMO Conference on "Living with Climate Variability and Change: Understanding the Uncertainties and Managing the Risks ", co-sponsored by Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

19. Main Espoo Outcomes (1/4)
The roles of climatic processes are often not recognized in human crises, leading to inappropriate decisions; e.g., the conflict in Darfour, Sudan.
The main conclusion from Espoo is that, to reduce the risk of bad choices made in situations where there is a strong interaction between climate and societal processes, it is necessary to adopt a more systematic approach.
It was proposed that all components of the Society dealing with risk management (Governments, NMHSs, communities, civil security, etc…) make a typology of risks they face, of exposed entities, and of possible responses, in order that the vulnerabilities of Society can be analysed and mapped.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

20. Main Espoo Outcomes (2/4)
Every major social, economic and environmental sector is sensitive to climate variability and change, both of which are significant factors in each sector's sustainable development.
Policy formulation and operational decision-making in climate sensitive sectors will be improved by more widespread use of climate knowledge and information in managing risks and exploiting opportunities (referred to as climate-related risk management), resulting in better preparedness.
There is a need for efforts to assemble disparate knowledge, to identify good practices, and to assess the value of, and give visibility to, climate-related risk management.
Implementation of climate-related risk management is complex, requires multidisciplinary structures, collaborations and the free and cross-disciplinary exchange of datasets.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

21. Main Espoo Outcomes (3/4)
The practice of climate-related risk management is not widespread within many sectors and there is a lack of awareness of climate-related risk management opportunities among numerous communities that would benefit.
The process of developing effective climate-related risk management works best if it is:
driven by the needs and requirements expressed by relevant decision sectors
developed within real-world decision contexts
enabled through facilitating institutions and policies
based on environmental, sectoral and socio-economic data
based on tailored climate information
supported by local capacity
included in planning strategies that incorporate incentives
supported by sector-specific services from NMHSs and related institutions.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

22. Main Espoo Outcomes (4/4)
These mechanisms could promote:
evaluation of current climate-related risk management in all relevant sectors
better assessments of the value of climate-related risk management
establishment of data sets necessary to inform decision making
research to improve climate-related risk management
development of decision-support tools
capacity building in climate-related risk management
on-going evaluation of outcomes
the use of suitable financial mechanisms in support of climate-related risk management.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

23. Climate Prediction : Uncertainty issues
SIP as well as climate scenarios are probabilistic by nature. Multi-model ensemble approaches allow for the uncertainties in model formulation to be integrated into the estimation of probabilities associated with such predictions/projections.
Methods are available for estimating the value of SIP based on cost-benefit approach
Performances of SIP models generally well known from “hindcasts”.
Espoo conference showed that, possibly unknown to several NMHSs and even the climate community, economists and policy makers have developed advanced tools for decision making under uncertainty (risk management).
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

24. Risk Management and Climate Change: COP12 Outcomes
The 12th session of the COP to the UNFCCC, (Nairobi, 6-17 November 2006), welcomed statements and relevant papers by WMO and the IPCC regarding their possible contributions (including those of NMHSs) to the implementation of the 5-year programme of work on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change.
That means that NMHSs should be proactive in the establishment of national plans for adaptation to climate variability and change in cooperation with socio-economic sectors and government representatives, on the basis of:
the WMO Concept Paper presented at UNFCCC/COP12 (a real commitment of WMO and NMHSs)
WMO
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

25. WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain
Concluding Remarks
WCASP/CLIPS will continue to promote the development of climate services with a major focus on SIP.
CCl Expert Teams are charged with re-focused strategies to help develop the regional/national capacities in developing climate services.
Networking between climate information providers, researchers, users and other stakeholders will be essential.
Local ownership of SIP products crucial for their effective use; enhancement of regional capacities in research/operations need to be proactively pursued, particularly in developing countries.
Expansion of RCOFs
There is a clear need for close coordination between SIP research community (WCRP/CLIVAR/TFSP/WGSIP) and WCP/WCASP/CLIPS to optimize SIP applications in real world context.
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

26. Thank You.
Dr. R. Kolli
Chief, World Climate Applications and CLIPs Division
Tel:
Fax:
WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop, 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain