1. Demographic Characteristics and Trends
Texas
Demographic Characteristics and Trends
Texas Association of State Senior College and University Business Officers
October 19, 2010
San Antonio, TX
Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

2. 25 Million Reasons to be Proud of Texas (among a few more)
Demographic Highlights
TEXAS is:
big.  The population of Texas is the second largest in the United States, approaching 25 million people (estimated population of 24.8 million people in 2009).7
young.  Approximately 28% of Texas’ population is under 18 and only 10% of the population is older than 65 years.1  Webb County in Texas, has the youngest population in the U.S. with children younger than 5 comprising 12.8% of the population.7
embracing of culture and diversity.  Approximately 9 million or 38% of Texans are of Hispanic descent,  2.8 million or 12% are African Americans, and 1 million or 4% are other (non-Anglo mainly of Asian descent).1  In about a decade, it is expected that Texas’ population will have more persons of Hispanic descent than any other racial or ethnic group.4
a desired place to live and work.  Net in-migration to Texas accounts for almost half of the population growth in recent years.1 More than 171,900 college graduates moved into Texas each year between 2006 and 2008, placing Texas as 2nd in the Nation by this measure.
urban. Texas has three of the top 10 largest cities in the Nation.3 Several of the metropolitan areas in Texas are among the most rapidly growing in the Nation.5
rural. Texas is the second largest state in the Nation in terms of square miles (268,601) and approximately 17% of the population lives in rural areas.1 
a working state. Texas has a civilian labor force of more than twelve million workers and an unemployment rate lower than in most States.6
family oriented.  Texas ranks 3rd among states for the percent of households which are married-couple families with children (24.4%).2
multigenerational.  Texas ranks 3rd among states for percent of households which are multigenerational (4.5%).2
growing – fast.   Texas gained more population than any other state in the last estimate year (between July 1, 2008 and July 1, 2009), adding 478,000 people.7   Among cities over 100,000 population in the U.S., 4 of the 10 fastest growing areas are in Texas ( change).7  
The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to ensuring that our policy makers, state and local government agencies, businesses, and the general public have ready access to information about our greatest asset: our people. Our mission is to help our constituents to understand the population characteristics and trends that are relevant to their areas of responsibility and interest and to present that information in a way that is easily understood. Toward this end, we are working over the coming months to craft products and informational interfaces that will target the informational needs of our constituents. We are also very committed to providing timely responses to our constituents specific informational needs. This slide provides a number of relevant demographic facts about our State’s greatest asset.
Data sources: 1. Texas State Data Center, Population Estimates; 2.  U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; 3. U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 4. Texas State Data Center, Population Projections; 5. U.S. Census Bureau,  Metropolitan Statistical Area Estimates; 6. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; 7. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

3. Texas Demography
This testimony will begin by describing basic demographic characteristics and dynamics in Texas and then will focus on issues related to the geographic distribution of our population.

4. Fastest Growing States, 2000-2009
Population*
2009
Numerical
Change
Percent
Texas
20,851,820
24,782,302
3,930,484
18.8
California
33,871,648
36,961,664
3,090,016
9.1
Florida
15,982,378
18,537,969
2,555,130
16.0
Georgia
8,186,453
9,829,211
1,642,430
20.1
Arizona
5,130,632
6,595,778
1,465,171
28.6
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,380,884
1,334,478
16.6
Virginia
7,078,515
7,882,590
803,542
11.4
Washington
5,894,121
6,664,195
770,052
13.1
Colorado
4,301,261
5,024,748
722,733
Nevada
1,998,257
2,643,085
644,825
32.3
* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2009.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states and is fourth in terms of rate of growth among these states as indicated by percent change between 2000 and 2009.

5. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009
Percent Change Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
Percent
1950
7,711,194 --
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
1,754,652
113,831
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
1,402,683
214,370
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
1,260,794
1,771,667
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
1,815,670
941,649
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
1,919,281
1,946,029
22.8
49.65
50.35
2009
24,782,302
3,930,484
2,124,124
1,781,785
18.8
54.04
45.33
* All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 is for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors.

6. Natural Increase in Texas (Births minus Deaths)
Birth Rate: per 1,000 vs for US (2nd highest)
Death Rate: per 1,000 vs. 8.3 for US (5th lowest)
Natural Increase: 10.0 per 1,000 vs. 5.7 for US (3rd highest)
Texas is young:
Median Age: vs for US (2nd lowest)
Texas has a high total fertility rate (Children per woman)
2.34 vs for US (4th highest)
Texas has a high birth rate and a low death rate, resulting in a high rate of natural increase relative to other states. The high birth rate is in part a function of Texas having a young population in child-bearing years and Texan women having, on average, more children over their child-bearing years (as indicated by the total fertility rate). Also, because the population of Texas is young, we tend to have a lower death rate than most other states.
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics Data,

7. Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009
Migration into Texas has made very significant contributions to our population growth for the past few decades. International migration is estimated to have made significant contributions this decade. Generally, international migration is regulated and tends not to vary substantially from year to year. Internal (state-to-state) migration is estimated to have increased significantly in the middle of this decade and has remained relatively high though with the economic downturn, internal migration into Texas is likely slowed. Internal migration is not regulated by the government and is largely driven by the presence or absence of jobs and economic opportunity. Therefore, internal migration tends to be variable and dependent upon economic fluctuations.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates

8. Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
This map demonstrates DOMESTIC, or internal, migration made up largely of persons who are citizens or legal residents of the United States. International migrants are not included on this map. Generally, western counties had U.S. residents and citizens moving out and the areas around urban cores had U.S. residents and citizens moving in. Note that Dallas and Harris county have net out domestic migration indicating that persons from these counties may be moving to more suburban adjacent counties.
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

9. Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population
This map demonstrates in migration of INTERNATIONAL migrants. Domestic migrants are not included on this map. It is estimated that international migrants made significant contributions to population growth in large urban counties and along the border. Note that Dallas and Harris counties experienced substantial international migration resulting in a positive net in-migration to those counties.
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, Map produced by the Texas State Data Center

10. Estimated Number and Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
White
Hispanic
Black
Other
Total
Net domestic migration
Number of migrants
371,150
238,866
195,024
43,663
848,702
Percent of Total
44%
28%
23% 5%
International migration
224,820
469,591
73,140
165,532
933,083
24%
50% 8%
18%
595,970
708,457
268,163
209,195
1,781,785
33%
40%
15%
12%
This table presents the estimated number and percent of migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by race/ethnicity and type of migrant (domestic and international). The majority of domestic migrants to Texas were non-Hispanic Anglo (White) followed by persons of Hispanic descent and non-Hispanic African Americans (Black). Persons of Hispanic descent made up about half of all international migrants to Texas during this period, followed by non-Hispanic Anglo persons. More than half of the population change attributable to migration in Texas over this period is attributable to international migration.
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau

11. Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Population by State of Residence: January 2009 and 2000
The question of unauthorized migration often arises in the context of discussing migration in Texas. The Department of Homeland Security estimates that there were approximately 1.68 million unauthorized migrants residing in Texas in This number may have declined some because of the downturn in the economy. Texas is second to California in terms of number of unauthorized migrants.
Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

12. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other.
In 2009, it is estimated that about 47% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 37% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census count and 2009 Population Estimate

13. Number of Texas Counties by Percent Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2009
% of Population
Non-Hispanic Anlgo
Non-Hispanic Black
Non-Hispanic Other*
Hispanic
2000 %
2009
0-10% 6
2.4% 7
2.8%
196
77.2%
194
76.4%
253
99.6%
252
99.2% 58
22.8% 34
13.4%
10-25% 15
5.9% 14
5.5% 53
20.9% 57
22.4% 1
0.4% 2
0.8% 93
36.6%
103
40.6%
25-50% 32
12.6% 52
20.5% 5
2.0% 3
1.2%
0.0% 69
27.2% 68
26.8%
50+%
201
79.1%
181
71.3% 49
19.3%
Total
254
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census count and 2009 Population Estimate
* Other includes: American Indian and Alaska Native Alone, Asian Alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Alone, and two or more races
A majority of Texas counties (an estimated 181) are more than 50% Non-Hispanic Anglo in According to Census Bureau estimates, there were 20 counties that were more than 50% Non-Hispanic Anglo in 2000 and were not 50% or more Non-Hispanic Anglo in There was a slight increase in the number of counties that were between 10-25% Black between There was little change in percent categories for the Non-Hispanic Other group. There were 15 additional counties that were more than 50% Hispanic in 2009 compared to The trend appears to be that fewer counties are more than 50% Non-Hispanic Anglo and an increasing number of counties are more than 50% Hispanic.

14. Geographic Patterns
The following slides/pages present information about the geographic distribution and change in the State by county to provide a sense of the geographic specifics of our populations dynamics.

15. Total Population in Texas Counties, 2009
This map demonstrates the estimated number of people living in each county in The Census Bureau has released total county estimates, but not yet race/ethnic specific estimates for Darker colored counties are those with more people. Rural west and north west Texas counties tend to have small populations except for those counties that have urbanized areas. Areas of population concentration and density are in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex area, the Houston, Beaumont area, and the San Antonio, Austin, I35 corridor. Additionally the Brownsville, McAllen, and Laredo border area and El Paso have large and more concentrated populations.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

16. Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2009
Population increase for
Texas was almost 19%
during this period
This map demonstrates the percent change in population over an eight year period. Percent change is one indicator of the speed of population change but is not always an indicator of the absolute change in numbers. For example, county A with 100 people added 100 people, and has a 100% increase. Meanwhile county B with 1,000 people added 100 people and has a 10% increase. County A is growing at a more rapid rate than county B, but in terms of total numbers, they grew by the same amount.
The State of Texas is estimated to have grown by almost 19% between 2000 and 2009.
The darker green colors on this map indicate counties with greater percentage change. The counties that are white mostly experienced negative change, or population decline. Thus, many of the more rural, less populated counties have experienced declines in population over the past nine years. Most counties experienced increases within 25%, while a smaller number of counties surrounding urbanized areas experienced significant growth beyond 25%.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

17. Estimated Percent Non-Hispanic Anglo, 2009
In examining racial and ethnic geographic distribution, this map demonstrates the percent of the population of each county that is Anglo. Most counties in the State are at least 50% Anglo. Counties on the southern border and far west Texas tend to have populations that are less than 50% Anglo.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

18. Estimated Percent Hispanic, 2009
This map demonstrates the percent of each county’s population that is of Hispanic descent. Most counties along the south western border are more than 50% Hispanic. Few counties have less than 10% of their population composed of persons of Hispanic descent.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

19. Estimated Percent Non-Hispanic Black, 2009
This map demonstrates the percent of each county’s population that is African American. The African American population in Texas is most concentrated in counties in the eastern part of the state.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

20. Estimated Percent Non-Hispanic Other, 2009
The other category includes mostly persons of Asian descent and to a lesser number, persons of American Indian, Alaska Native, and Pacific Islander descent. Persons in the “other” category tend to be more concentrated in major urban areas and also along the northern Gulf coast counties (however, the gradations in this map do not demonstrate the Gulf coast populations).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

21. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040
This graph represents variable population projections for the State under different migration scenarios. The base (brown dashed line) is the assumption of no migration. Under this scenario, the State will grow as a function of natural increase (births-deaths). The ½ scenario (the red split line) is the most conservative. The and scenarios reflect estimates of migration for those two periods and suggest more rapid population growth. Under any scenario, even no migration, Texas will continue to grow.
Year
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

22. Projected Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040
Similar to the previous map, this map indicates projected percent change in the population of counties between 2008 and The Texas State Data Center population projections indicate the trends in population growth and decline we have seen this past decade will continue. Major metropolitan areas will continue to increase as will the southern border region. More rural, less populated counties will likely be stable or will lose population.
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Estimates

23. Percent of Population Growth and Projected Population Growth by Race/Ethnicity, Texas
Examining racial and ethnic groups contributions to Texas’ population growth, we can see that the Anglo population has been contributing less and is expected to contribute proportionately less into the future, while the Hispanic descent population has been and is expected to be contributing increasingly more to our State’s population growth.
Source: U.S. Census Counts, and Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Scenario

24. Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040
The migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015.
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , Migration Scenario

25. Percent of the population 5 and over who speak English less than well by state, 2008
Texas is second to California for having the largest percent of the population who speak English less than well. Most of the population in Texas who speak English less than well, speak Spanish as their first language.
Source: American Community Survey, 2008

26. Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Projecting graduation rates of the labor force forward and comparing this with education attainment in 2000, the labor force in Texas may have a higher percentage without a high school diploma and smaller percentages with increasing levels of education.

27. Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2009
In 2009, about 92% of the non-Hispanic white population in Texas had graduated from high school or had more education. For the Hispanic population, 74% had graduated from high school or had more education.
Source: American Community Survey, 2009

28. Percent of 7-12 Grade Students Dropping Out by County, 2008
The percent of middle and high school aged youth dropping out was variable across the State. Some urban counties had higher drop-out percentages and some rural counties did as well.
Source: Texas Education Agency

29. Percent of 7-12 grade Hispanic dropping out by county, 2008
For Hispanic youth, the percent of students who drop out is greater than for all youth.
Source: Texas Education Agency

30. Major Points
Texas’ population will continue to grow, driven by both natural increase and net migration (internal and international)
The Hispanic origin population contributes significantly to overall growth of Texas’ total population
The population will continue to increase in major urbanized areas and along the south Texas border, with declining population in most rural areas.
The Hispanic population in Texas is growing relative to non-Hispanics and Hispanics tend to have lower graduation rates.
In summary, we have every reason to expect that Texas’ population will continue to grow driven by both natural increase and net migration .
The population dynamics of the Hispanic origin population, higher natural increase and higher net migration, results in Latino's continuing to contribute significantly to overall grow of the Texas’ total population.
The major urbanized areas and along the south Texas border are and will continue to be the areas with growing population while the population in most rural areas of the State is stable or is in decline.

31. Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office:
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
We hope this testimony reviewing the population characteristics and dynamics of our State is useful to your committees in the significant and challenging work that you have in front of you. The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas. This concludes our prepared testimony. If you have any questions or needs for additional information please do not hesitate to contact us. We thank you for the opportunity to testify before your committees.