1. Series 13 Regional Growth Forecast
March 8, 2013

2. 2050 California Growth 50 Million by 2050
San Joaquin Valley: 25 Percent of New Growth
Nearly 50 Percent of New Growth in Southern California
6 Percent of New Growth in San Diego
Change in Total Population:
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, Report P-1 (County): State and County Total Population Projections,  Sacramento, California, January 2013.

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History of Forecasting: Model Accuracy
San Diego Population
***We can always revert back to the other one. Let’s see what people think. The other one with all the series line is chaotic, but may be easier for the average person to understand.***
Note: Boxes represents range of forecast predictions. For example, SANDAG has provided a projection for 2005 since Series 4 through Series 11. The lowest projection was 2.8 million. The highest projection was 3.3 million. The average projection was just over 3 million. The actual population in 2005 was just over 3 million as well.
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4. Population, Jobs, and Housing
Result
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Population, Jobs, and Housing
973,000 more people
479,000 more jobs
333,000 more housing units
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5. DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY
Result
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Components of Change
San Diego Population
Change calibration period on domestic migration model to take 1990-present into account (rather than 1970-present).
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6. Population: Rate of Change
Annual Rate of Change

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Assumption
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Fertility Rates
Discussion on convergence assumptions.
Recommendations for further investigation:
Convergence makes sense, but maybe not as dramatic a change.
Provide more documentation on convergence rates.
Compare to other states (e.g. Arizona) with respect to the population remaining in-state (mostly recent migrants? Mostly later generations?)
Look at changes in linguistic isolation as a marker of convergence
Check against US Census Bureau assumption about convergence
Historical source: California Department of Health, Vital Statistics (1980 data is U.S. rate from CDC)
Projection assumption: Return to pre-recession (2006) birth rates by White rate constant , other rates converge by 40% to white rate by 2050.
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Assumption
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Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy (Years)
Updated to reflect 2012 projections from U.S. Census Bureau
PANEL REQUEST: Test the model with other life expectancy assumptions (especially those from US Census Bureau projections). Some models have 4-5 year increase in life expectancy.
RESPONSE: Updated tables with new life expectancy data, now almost exactly the same as U.S. Census Bureau projections for 2050 (except where SANDAG projections are slightly higher because local survival rates are slightly higher than national average).
Historical source: California Department of Health, Vital Statistics (1990 data for Asian reflects a composite of all Asian/other records)
Projection assumption: Life expectancies updated to reflect 2012 Census projections (except where San Diego base year and future assumptions were higher than national average)
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9. Distribution of International Migrants
Assumption
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Distribution of International Migrants
International Migrants
46% male
54% female
Source: Used PUMS to get detailed age/race/sex characteristics of foreign born entered 2000 or later.
UPDATE since last meeting
Controlled distributions to published 2011 totals by race and sex.
New data from ACS shows higher % female foreign born.
Historical source: American Community Survey and 2011 American Community Survey persons “Foreign born; Entered 2000 or later”
Projection assumption: Held constant.
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10. Domestic Migration Patterns
Assumption
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Domestic Migration Patterns
Destination County
Estimated Outflow
Riverside (CA)
14,673
Los Angeles (CA)
11,234
Orange (CA)
6,926
Maricopa (AZ)
6,693
San Bernardino (CA)
3,870
Clark (NV)
2,420
San Francisco (CA)
2,313
Alameda (CA)
2,246
Pima (AZ)
2,164
Santa Clara (CA)
2,101
Origin County
Estimated Inflow
Los Angeles (CA)
16,330
Orange (CA)
9,321
Riverside (CA)
8,709
San Bernardino (CA)
4,203
Maricopa (AZ)
4,156
Santa Clara (CA)
3,640
Clark (NV)
2,200
Honolulu (HI)
2,167
Ventura (CA)
2,137
Imperial (CA)
1,874
Comments from first meeting:
Look at different states and metro areas for migration pattern assumptions. Convergence or divergence?
Double check source.
Look up Jim Chang’s work on PUMS to estimate out-migrants.
Follow up:
Revised based on new estimates of 2010 migration distribution (forward-aged the non-military population from 2000 Census, added foreign migrants, and compared with 2010 counts to reverse-estimate domestic migration)
Source: American Community Survey,
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11. San Diego Region Age Structure 2010 and 2050
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San Diego Region Age Structure 2010 and 2050
Male
Female
5 Year Age Group
Report median age for each year
Population
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Result
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Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic
32%
2010
2050
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13. Educational Attainment
Median Age = 43.6
Median Age = 41.6
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey

14. Educational Attainment
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey

15. San Diego Median Income
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey

16. Distribution of Jobs by Industry
Result
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Distribution of Jobs by Industry
% of Total Jobs
Historical source: QCEW California Employment Development Dept. (annual average)
Projection assumption: Each industry’s jobs forecast is driven by US job growth by industry and a local market index
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Result
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Median Home Price
Median Home Price (000s)
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18. Population, Jobs, and Housing
Result
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Population, Jobs, and Housing
973,000 more people
479,000 more jobs
333,000 more housing units
DRAFT - FOR EXPERT PANEL REVIEW ONLY