1. Hilya Arini Tim Bedford, John Quigley, Calvin Burns
DEVELOPING A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF TRUST BEHAVIOUR IN EMERGENCY EVACUATION: A COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY IN CANADA AND INDONESIA
Hilya Arini
Tim Bedford, John Quigley, Calvin Burns

2. Outline
Background
Research Objectives
Research Methods

3. If the fire alarm in this room suddenly rings, what would you do?

4. Quickly run and find the emergency exit without considering what other people do
Run and find the emergency exit in a group after being asked by the leader in this room to evacuate
Run and find the emergency exit after your friends started to evacuate
Do nothing (Not evacuate)

5. Trust is “a psychological state comprising the intention to accept vulnerability based upon positive expectations of the intentions or behaviour of another” (Rousseau et al., 1998, p. 395).

6. Natural Disaster in Indonesia
Indonesia sits along a volatile seismic strip called the ‘Ring of Fire’ in the Pacific. Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes occur regularly, which can present a potential threat of tsunamis.
Fig 1. Aceh Tsunami
Fig 2. Yogyakarta Earthquake
Fig 3. Merapi Eruption

7. Volcano Eruption in Indonesia
Mount Merapi has erupted more than 80 times. This is the biggest eruption since 1832. 
In its 2010’s eruption, according to data from Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management, 277 people died and 186 people injured.

8. Emergency Evacuation in Indonesia

10. Research Questions
To identify and distingusih the current role of government and an influential non-government persons during emergency evacuation in Canada and Indonesia.
To develop a conceptual model of trust behaviour before building Agent Based Modeling (ABM).

11. Agent-based Modeling (ABM)
ABM is a computer simulation technique adopting bottom-up approach to understand and predict the system by simulating individual behaviour and interactions, and capture collective or emergent behaviour resulted from individual interaction in a dynamic system (North and Macal, 2007)
The Interface of ABM Simulation by Wagner & Agrawal (2014)

12. Agent-based Modeling (ABM)
The general steps include:
model conceptualization/design,
implementation,
validation/verification, and
analysis of data.

13. Behavioural aspect in ABM
According to North and Macal (2007), the behaviours of agents are the heart of ABM. Properly specified and valid agent behaviours as well as their interactions in conceptual model are required to obtain a useful ABM in emergency evacuation.
The oversimplification of agents’ behaviour from reality enables to result in questionable theory and an ill-conceived basis for the efficacy of model (Eden, 1989).

14. Problem Structuring Methods in ABM
Modeling Agent System based on Institutional Analysis (MAIA) framework by Ghorbani & Schrauwen (2013)
As PSM, this framework is believed that enables to structure qualitative data through an ethnographic process served to build conceptual model as input to ABM.

15. Five interrelated structures in MAIA
The collective structure actors to define agents by capturing their characteristics and decision criteria based on expert’s perception and goals,
The constitutional structure to show agent’s roles and institutions,
The physical structure to reflect the non-social environment that the agent are embedded in,
The operational structure to present an action arena with different situations in which agents interact as they are affected by the environment,
The evaluative structure to explain the concepts with the help of which the modeller can indicate what patterns of interaction, evaluation, and interested outcomes.
Ghorbani & Schrauwen (2013)

16. Research Methods Develop interview guidance Conduct pilot study
Conduct semi-structured interview and workshop
Document result and building conceptual model
Validate conceptual model by Focus Group Discussion

17. The UML class diagram for the MAIA meta-model (Ghorbani et al. 2013)

19. Contributions
Provide theoretical contribution by focusing on behavioural theory prior to develop decision analysis model in emergency evacuation.
Provide a methodological contribution through the application of problem structuring approach to collect qualitative data for building a conceptual model in ABM.
Provide an empirical contribution through an empirical interviews with evacuation specialists and key people involved in managing evacuations in Canada and Indonesia.
Provide a practical contribution through a conceptual model that can be used as the basis to model people trust behaviour during emergency evacuation with ABM. At the end, the ABM can help decision maker to develop an effective communication strategy during emergency evacuation situation in Canada and Indonesia.

20. Cultural Theory of Risk
The Four Groups in Cultural Theory

21. The Role of Trust in Emergency Evacuation
Paton et al. (2010) stated that the emergency evacuation decision can also be influenced by the different cultures and countries.
Stoyan, Niedzwiecki, Morgan, Hartlyn, & Espinal (2014) who conducted a research about institutional trust added that different countries can have different institutional trust level. Citizens in countries with high institutional trust level will be more participating on institutional engagement e.g. emergency evacuation.