1. THE BRICS IN AFRICA: RECONFIGURATION OR RE-ESCALATION OF DEPENDENCY?

4. • Expansion of infrastructure, growth in BRICS’s manufacturing sectors and a greater demand for food led to an increase in commodity prices

5. This boom in commodity prices lasted nearly 10 years and drove the “Africa Rising” narrative

7. WHAT DID “AFRICA RISING” DO?
• Prowess in manufacturing led to price competition in industrial goods - good for African consumers - bad for African manufacturers
Share of manufacturing in Africa’s GDP - 15% in 1990  now 10%

9. The African Transformation Report looks at “ACET 15” (Senegal, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda, Cameroon, Zambia, Botswana, South Africa, Mozambique, and Mauritius)
These countries comprise (of SSA):
70% of SSA population
76% of GDP
85% of manufacturing value added
80% of exports
Plus “Early Transformers” (Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam)

12. DIVERSIFYING DEPENDENCY?
• Oil-exporting countries have grown > 300% faster than non-oil exporting countries
Average index of export diversification in SSA is 2.2
(0 = perfectly low; 100 = perfectly high)
• Exports to the 3 large emerging markets (Brazil, China, and India) were dominated by natural resources, particularly oil = 70% of all African exports to the three countries

15. And when the party’s over……? 2014 2020 2025 Energy 119.6 105.3 97.2
PRICE INDICES IN REAL 2010 US$
2014
2020
2025
Energy
119.6
105.3
97.2
Non-energy commodities
92.6
85.4
79.2
- Agriculture
96.8
88.1
81.0
- Beverages
77.4
71.3
66.2
Food
103.3
90.5
81.2
- Fats and oils
101.4
78.8
- Grains
115.1
100.5
89.9
- Other food
95.3
84.6
76.5
Raw materials
90.7
91.0
88.2
- Timber
100.4
105.2
104.5
- Other raw materials
80.1
75.4
70.4
Fertilizers
88.0
77.3
Metals and minerals (a)
82.9
79.5
75.5
Base metals (b)
82.3
74.9
Precious metals
102.2
92.2
83.9

17. World Bank scenarios for African growth assuming slowdown in BRICS (with average per capita growth rate at 2.3% between )

19. Questions?