1. Systems Thinking and Activities Involved in Disaster Preparedness and Response
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2. Overview Part 1: Introduction to Systems Thinking Part 2:
Applying Systems Thinking to Evacuation Planning
Part 3: Case Study: Using Systems Thinking to Assess Evacuation Planning Effectiveness
Part 4:
Case Study: Group Reflection and Discussion
Part 5:
Conclusion
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3. Introduction to Systems Thinking
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Part 1:
Introduction to Systems Thinking

4. Systems Thinking
Used to create an understanding of the dynamic and interrelated nature of the entire human-environment system

5. Systems Thinking

6. Applying Systems Thinking to Evacuation Planning
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Part 2:
Applying Systems Thinking to Evacuation Planning

7. Population in the Process of Evacuation Population that Reached Safety
A Linear Approach to
Evacuation Planning
Population
Under Threat
Population in the Process of Evacuation
Population that Reached Safety

8. Population in the Process of Evacuation Population that Reached Safety
A Systems Approach to
Evacuation Planning
Danger Recognition
Acceptance
Concern Rate
Total Conditions
Social Factors
Evacuation
Flood Warnings
Knowledge of Refuge Places
Total Population
Inundation of Refuge Routes
Evacuation Orders +
( – )
( + ) –
Population
Under Threat
Population in the Process of Evacuation
Population that Reached Safety

9. Causal Loop Diagramming
Key to a Systems Approach
Population
Under Threat
Population that Reached Safety
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HYPOTHESIS:
As the population that reaches safety goes UP,
the population under threat goes DOWN.

10. Causal Loop Diagramming
Key to a Systems Approach
Population
Under Threat
Population that Reached Safety
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HYPOTHESIS:
As the population that reaches safety goes UP,
the population under threat goes DOWN.

11. Causal Loop Diagramming
Key to a Systems Approach
Population
Under Threat
Population that Reached Safety
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But what if things don’t go as expected?
HOW CAN CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS HELP?

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Part 3:
Case Study: Using Systems Thinking to Assess Evacuation Planning Effectiveness

13. How Can Causal Loop Diagrams Help with the Unexpected?
Population
Under Threat
Population that Reached Safety
What if this group has not yet reached safety?
Do they realize that they should be evacuating?
Is their evacuation route blocked?
Have they decided not to evacuate?
Perhaps our Causal Loop Diagram needs to be a bit more complex if we want to address these questions?

14. Capturing Complexity with Causal Loop Diagrams
Population
Under Threat
Population in the Process of Evacuation
Population that Reached Safety
What if we add a loop that captures the moment when
individuals make the decision to evacuate?

15. Evaluating a Revised Causal Loop Diagram
Population
Under Threat
Population in the Process of Evacuation
Population that Reached Safety
HYPOTHESES:
1.) As the Population in the Process of Evacuation goes UP, the Population Under Threat goes DOWN.

16. Evaluating a Revised Causal Loop Diagram
Population
Under Threat
Population in the Process of Evacuation
Population that Reached Safety
HYPOTHESES:
1.) As the Population in the Process of Evacuation goes UP, the Population Under Threat goes DOWN.
2.) As the Population in the Process of Evacuation goes UP, the population that reaches safety goes UP.

17. Case Study: Group Reflections and Discussion
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Part 4:
Case Study: Group Reflections and Discussion

18. Whole Group Brainstorming
HYPOTHESIS #2
As the population that reaches safety goes UP, the Population in the Process of Evacuation goes UP.
Imagine that our hypothesis ends up being untrue. The Population in the Process of Evacuation is not Reaching Safety. What are some possible reasons for this?

19. Small Group Brainstorming
HYPOTHESIS #1
As the Population in the Process of Evacuation goes UP, the Population Under Threat goes DOWN.
Imagine that our hypothesis ends up being untrue. The Population Under Threat is not beginning the Process of Evacuation. What are some possible reasons for this?

20. Case Study: Conclusion
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Part 5:
Case Study: Conclusion

21. Final Notes About Causal Loop Diagrams
There is no one “correct” or “finished” Causal Loop Diagram (CLD).
They contain the collective knowledge of those who create them.
They are created as hypothesis about why a system is acting the way it is.
New stakeholders would provide new knowledge and a different perspective how they system operates.
As new knowledge is obtained, the CLD can be modified.
The main benefit of the creation of the CLD is not the diagram itself, but the discussions that arise during its development.

22. Thank you!
Swathi Veeravalli