1. Climate proofing agriculture to enhance food security in eastern and central Africa
Michael Waithaka, Nelson Gerald, Timothy Thomas, Miriam Kyotalimye, Annette Kuteesa, Juvent Baramburiye, Blandine Nsombo, Bissrat Ghebru, Habtamu Admassu, Michael Makokha, Mireille Vololona, Ngoga Gislain, Abdelmoneim Taha, Carol Kilembe, Bernard Bashaasha
Climate change will cause major impacts on rain-fed agricultural systems and enhancing the adaptive capacities of the millions in eastern and central Africa who depend on agriculture will be central to assuring current and future food security.
Introduction
Agriculture looms high in the economies of ASARECA countries, making the region vulnerable to climate change related impacts (table 1). Greater variations in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines. The impacts are expected to be:
direct, on crops and livestock productivity
indirect, on availability/prices of food
indirect, on income from agricultural production
Climate change patterns to 2050
Figure 1 shows rainfall predictions to 2050 based on two global circulation models under the A1B scenario. Predictions for rainfall are generally less certain across models. There are increases in parts of western an northern DR Congo, southern Sudan, eastern Ethiopia, northern Kenya. Pockets of Sudan, DR Congo, Tanzania and Madagascar may have reductions
Figure 1. Change in average annual precipitation (mm), 2000–2050, Scenario A1B
Expected impacts on availability of food staples to 2050
Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), crops with more weight in consumption measured in thousands of tonnes were assumed to be more important in national food baskets (Figure 3). Results indicate that only Burundi (sweet potatoes, Rwanda (potatoes) and Sudan (sorghum) will have some surplus production of key food staples by 2050 (measured as net exports).
Figure 3. Net exports of ECA countries to 2050 by key food staple
The need to adapt ECA agriculture to climate change
The ASARECA region has inherent food insecurity with only Uganda having per capita kilocalories over the WHO recommended level of 2,300 kilocalories per capita. About 74% of the population in the region is employed in sectors vulnerable to climate change and coupled with some of the highest population growth rates that average 3.5%. ECA governments will be hard pressed to buffer their populations against climate change effects. An improvement in all factors that determine adaptive capacity is required to reduce the vulnerability of ASARECA countries to such impacts (see Table 1).
Table 1: Indicators of ASARECA countries’ adaptive capacity
Maps in Figure 1 and 2 assume the A1B Scenario. The top left is from CNRM-CM3 GCM; the top right is from the CSIRO-MK3 GCM
Country
2008 GDP per capita (US $)
Adult literacy (%)
Annual Population growth rate % ( )
Share of GDP
from agric.(%)
2008
Burundi
111.31
59.3
2.49 -
DRC
67.2
Eritrea
147.46
52.5
3.20
Ethiopia
189.80
35.9
3.93
42.7
Kenya
463.72
73.6
3.79
21.3
Madagascar
270.78
70.7
3.99
25.2
Rwanda
313.20
64.9
1.93
34.6
Sudan
532.12
60.9
2.99
25.8
Tanzania
362.36
72.3
3.89
Uganda
348.09
4.60
22.7
ECA
328.44
63.1
3.54
Most models predict a rise in temperature with variations in intensity across ECA. Temperatures are likely to increase by 1oC to 2oC in most parts of the region (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Change in maximum temperatures (0C), 2000–2050
Key adaptation strategies
Provision of an early warning and response system
Enhance adoption of climate-smart technologies
Enhance depth of agricultural and rural finance
Strategic food/ grain reserves (cash or in-kind)
Investment in research on climate-smart innovations
Use of index-based weather insurance
Payment for ecosystem services
Regional trade in food to enable flows from surplus areas to deficit areas
Acknowledgements
This poster is based on the IFPRI-ASARECA monograph:  Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Eastern Africa. The authors acknowledge financial support from the European Union and the Canadian International Development Agency through their support of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.