1. Impacts of Climate Change: National Security
Andrew Cachiaras, Tyler Richman, Joseph Sanz, and Daniel Selzer
CPSG101 Science & Global Change First Year Colloquium II
April 26, 2015
Introduction (Creating a Strain):
As climate change occurs, there will be errancies in weather patterns
Droughts, hurricanes, and wildfires are among these errancies
Governments have to care for their people in such emergencies
Even the U.S. a fairly prepared government, faltered at Katrina
The disasters will only grow in frequency and scope
Summary of Expected Effects in IPCC 2007 Report:
Unprepared Government:
Climate change was a major factor in causing the Arab Spring
Climate Change caused farmland and bodies of freshwater to dry up
Severe food and water shortages in the Middle East resulted
War then broke out over in part, the lack of resources
Phenomenon and Direction of Trend
21st Century Likelihood
Over most land areas, warmer and fewer cold days and nights, warmer and more frequent hot days and nights
Virtually certain
Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency increases over most land areas
Very Likely
Heavy precipitation events. Frequency increases over most areas
Area affected by drought increases
Likely
Intense tropical cyclone activity increases
Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excluding tsunamis)
IPCC Interim Working Group Report 1, April 2007; IPCC Synthesis Report, November 2007
Protesters wave Egyptian flags during a protest in Tahrir square. Digital image. 8 Apr Web. 5 Apr
Phillip, David J. Homes remain flooded to the roof by flood waters from Hurricane Katrina. Digital image. 5 Sept Web. 5 Apr
Conclusion:
Climate change is an increasing threat to more refugee flows and conflict over resources
National security repercussions are seen throughout all different types of countries
Tensions may increase from water scarcity, food shortages, natural resource competition, and underdevelopment
Benefits:
Factoring in societal stresses provided by climate change can be used to assess potential for state stability
National security policies that are constructed with resilience in mind will build extra stability
Climate change must be analyzed in order to determine other countries’ transformations in energy systems or competition for Arctic resources
Katrina:
The Cost $80 billion in damages
1,800 people dead
270,000 displaced
More than 70,000 soldiers were mobilized
Bibliography:
Malone, E.L Climate Change and National Security. Weather, Climate, and Society 5: doi: /WCAS-D
J. Bubsy, Climate Change and National Security. CSR 32: 1-40.
Anonymous Findings from Select Federal Reports: The National Security Implications of a Changing Climate. The White House. Accessed 28 March 2016.
Werrell, C.E., Femia F The U.S. Asia-Pacific Rebalance, National Security and Climate Change. The Center For Climate and Security.
Werrell, C.E., Femia F The Arab Spring and Climate Change. The Center For Climate and Security.
Picture Citiations:
Hamill, Paul. Climate Change & National Security 1. Digital image. 16 Oct Web. 5 Apr
Hamill, Paul. Climate Change & National Security 2. Digital image. 16 Oct Web. 5 Apr