1. Climate Change: A Real Threat to Middle East Security

2. Background About FoEME
FoEME study region- Egypt, Israel, Palestinian Authority (PA), Jordan, southern Lebanon
Climate Change impacts on water security and regional stability.

3. Background The Middle East-a politically volatile region
Israel/Egypt Peace Treaty but cold peace
1994 Jordan/Israel Peace Treaty including agreement over the sharing of common water resources
Interim agreements with PA and Israel but water sharing left to final status
No Peace Treaty or water agreements with Lebanon and Syria

4. Background
Study region characterized by water scarcity: most of the water sources are shared between neighboring countries

5. Background
Agriculture of key economic importance to Egypt, PA and lesser extent Jordan
Population
GDP $US (% Agric- ulture)
Water resources (m2 /capita year
Surface Area (sq. km.)
Egypt
74,032,884
15 %
859
1,001,450
Israel
6,923,600
1-2 %
276
22,070
Palestinian Authority
3,626,000
9-25 % 52
6,020
Jordan
5,473,000
3-4%
179
88,780

6. Security Implications of Climate Change
Fewer Water Resources Available for Existing Agreements
Israel/Jordan more difficult to comply with Jordan River water sharing arrangement - 50 mcm/pa
Jordan/Israel more difficult to comply with Yarmouk River water sharing arrangements – 27 mcm/pa
Israel still to provide Jordan with additional 50 mcm/pa – never fulfilled
Israel/PA future needs recognized mcm/pa. In final agreement PA demands will be higher.
Desertification: previously agriculturally productive and ecologically ‘green’ (forest, woodlands, bushlands) area to become arid/semiarid, this could include the whole of northern Israel
Decrease in water supplies: a compounding outcome of reduced groundwater percolation, a shorter rainy season, increased rates of evapotranspiration of up to 10%, together with reduced precipitation
Sea level rise -> loss of coastal lowlands and flooding

7. Security Implications of Climate Change
Fewer Water Resources Available for Future Agreements
Israel/Lebanon sharing of the Jordan River tributaries
Israel/Syria sharing of the Jordan and sources of the Sea of Galilee
Desertification: previously agriculturally productive and ecologically ‘green’ (forest, woodlands, bushlands) area to become arid/semiarid, this could include the whole of northern Israel
Decrease in water supplies: a compounding outcome of reduced groundwater percolation, a shorter rainy season, increased rates of evapotranspiration of up to 10%, together with reduced precipitation
Sea level rise -> loss of coastal lowlands and flooding

8. Security Implications of Climate Change
Less rainfall impacts the economy
PA economy heavily dependent on rain fed agriculture for income and employment
Jordan Valley bread basket of Jordanian food production and rural support backbone of Kingdom’s political stability
Israeli agricultural lobby powerful across political divide
Desertification: previously agriculturally productive and ecologically ‘green’ (forest, woodlands, bushlands) area to become arid/semiarid, this could include the whole of northern Israel
Decrease in water supplies: a compounding outcome of reduced groundwater percolation, a shorter rainy season, increased rates of evapotranspiration of up to 10%, together with reduced precipitation
Sea level rise -> loss of coastal lowlands and flooding

9. Security Implications of Climate Change
Sea Level Rise will impact the Israel PA coastal aquifer
Further increase salinity of drinking water for Gaza
Further contaminate Israel’s coastal aquifer
Desertification: previously agriculturally productive and ecologically ‘green’ (forest, woodlands, bushlands) area to become arid/semiarid, this could include the whole of northern Israel
Decrease in water supplies: a compounding outcome of reduced groundwater percolation, a shorter rainy season, increased rates of evapotranspiration of up to 10%, together with reduced precipitation
Sea level rise -> loss of coastal lowlands and flooding

10. Sea Level Rise will heavily impact Egyptian economy
Security Implications of Climate Change
Sea Level Rise will heavily impact Egyptian economy
Read out figures on top right hand corner of each map

11. Socioeconomic Impacts
Severe water shortages
Agricultural losses
Migration in search of resources
Refugees from inundated lands
Economic crisis
Agricultural losses: Reduction in agricultural productivity, due to a reduction in crop productivity in temperatures increased over 2 °C, shorter crop growing seasons, loss of agricultural lands to coastal inundation, desertification, salinisation; saltwater encroachment into groundwater aquifers, increasingly common bad harvests due to pests and disease
Disease and health impacts: increase of cold sensitive diseases-Leishmaniasis, tick-borne diseases, Reduced efficiency of water drainage systems-> malaria (breakdown of climatic barrier between Egypt and Israel), cholera (expected to increase particularly with longer hotter summers), dysentery, West Nile virus fever, giardiasis, bilharzia. Also an increase in climate related illnesses due to increased extreme weather events and greater seasonal variation; particularly in elderly and children. Increase in respiratory disorders due to increased dust storms

12. Political Ramifications
Increased tension between countries sharing water resources
Difficulties for governments to provide for their country’s needs-> internal instability, likelihood of failed states
Exacerbated marginal living conditions- foster extremist and radical ideologies and conflicts – General Anthony Zinni
CNA report conclusion - Climate change- a threat multiplier for human security