1. The impact of human-centric design on the adoption of information systems: A case study of the spreadsheet
Christopher Scaffidi
Center for Applied Systems and Software
School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR, United States

2. Motivation
"Despite tools’ potential, auditors keep using spreadsheet to execute most of the work"
"The most relevant tool in the context of statutory auditors daily work is Spreadsheets, which is mentioned by 45.5% as the most relevant in their work, by 41.8% as the second most relevant, and is mentioned by 98.2% as one of the 3 most important tools in statutory auditors’ work"
--Pedrosa, Costa, Laureano (CISTI'2015)
Let's learn from spreadsheets so that we can achieve similar adoption success with our future information system tools!!!

3. Methodology Case study Other possible methods
Weighs the evidence for and against propositions
Qualitative method
Analysis of publications about the subject of interest (spreadsheets)
Other possible methods
Interviews and surveys
Except many important people who influenced spreadsheets are now deceased
Also questionable whether they would remember accurately
Quantitative analyses
Data sets do not exist for the most important questions (e.g., what usability attributes of spreadsheets affected adoption?)

4. Propositions
Not all quality attributes played an equal role in driving adoption of this information system
To determine: reliability? reusability? usability? performance?
What factors appear to have caused adoption?
Redwine-Riddle maturation model applies to the adoption of this information system

5. Stages of the Redwine-Riddle maturation model (with stage criteria)
Stage 1, Concept formulation:
Appearance of key technology idea addressing articulated problem
- Informal circulation of ideas
- Convergence on a compatible set of ideas
- General publication of solutions to part
Stage 2, Development and extension:
Definition via seminal papers and/or demonstration systems
- Trial, preliminary use of the technology
- Clarification of the underlying ideas
- Extension of general approach to broader solution
Stage 3, Enhancement & exploration:
Usable capabilities exist; usage shifts outside development group
- Major extension of approach to other domains
- Development of training materials
- Stabilization and porting of the technology
- Use of the technology to solve real problems
- Derivations of results indicating value
Stage 4, Popularization:
Substantial evidence of value and applicability
- Production-quality, supported versions
- Commercialization and marketing
- Propagation of technology through community

6. Stage 1, Concept formulation
Basic research and concept formulation
Mattessich's work, beginning in the 1960's
Appearance of key idea and articulation of the problem
The need for periodic operating budgets
The need for formalization of budgetary accounting
The potential benefits of computational modelling
Elements of Redwine-Riddle maturation model
Informal discussion, compatible ideas, publications

7. Stage 2, Development and extension
Definition via seminal papers and/or demonstration systems
Early attempts at optimization included linear programming, dynamic programming, distribution sampling
Limited adoption
By 1976, only 39% of firms claimed to have modeled the "total company"
Tended to be "satisficing" (as Mattessich proposed) rather than optimizing
Elements of Redwine-Riddle maturation model
Preliminary trials, clarification of the idea, extension of the approach

8. Stage 3, Enhancement and exploration
Usable capabilities become available
Dan Bricklin, 1979, VisiCalc
Ledger and backward-looking analyses
Soon grew into usage for forward-looking analyses (simulations, predictions)
Shift to usage outside of development group
Explosive commercial success
Features attuned to usability: apparent simplicity, and responsiveness
Elements of Redwine-Riddle maturation model
Application to another problem domain, training manual, ported, application to real problems, many people obtaining value

9. Stage 4, Popularization Substantial evidence of value/applicability
Appearance of copmetitors (Lotus, Microsoft)
Appearance of complements (HAL, PUP)
Widespread adoption (over 30% of US computer users in 1997, 60% in 2001)
Appearance of derivatives (NoPumpG, Penguims, Forms/3)
Elements of Redwine-Riddle maturation model
Production-quality, supported systems, commercialization and marketing, propagation of the technology

10. Discussion: Lessons and implications
Lengthy, collaborative timeline of information system innovation
Over 20 years (similar to other technologies that Redwine-Riddle discuss)
Multiple forms of evidence that are important
Sales-minded validation was very important; some laboratory studies
Importance of usability over optimality
Spreadsheets are not optimal; firms today still struggle with optimizing
The risk of success
Sub-optimality and unreliability of spreadsheets are now a threat to us all

11. Conclusions
Confirmed: Not all quality attributes played an equal role in driving adoption of this information system
Sources very often discussed usability in the context of adoption
Flexibility (using technology for many different purposes) was also mentioned
Mostly confirmed: Redwine-Riddle maturation model applies to the adoption of this information system
Caveats: Difficulty of pinpointing exact moment of transition from Enhancement/exploration to Popularization; even then, difficult to estimate stages of popularization in terms of proportions of the population

12. Thank you… To CISTI for this opportunity to present
To you for your feedback and questions