1. Rain or shine? Understanding public perceptions of weather and climate risk
Dr Andrea Taylor
Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School
Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment

2. University of Leeds Prof Wӓndi Bruine de Bruin Prof Suraje Dessai University College London Dr Carmen Lefevre Carnegie Mellon University Prof Baruch Fischoff Dr Kelly Klima London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Dr Sari Kovats

3. Funding

4. Climate change is a concept that can be difficult to understand
Linking it to specific types of weather events may make it more concrete and personally relevant
- Weber and Stern (2009)

5. Why is this important to explore this?
Awareness
Mitigation
Adaptation

6. Local warming
Climate change concern amongst US public influenced by local temperatures.
However, not all countries experience frequent hot summers.
(e.g., Deryugina, 2013; Egan & Mullin, 2012; Hamilton & Stampone, 2013; Risen et al., 2011)

7. Residents in temperate regions may even look forward to the prospect of warmer summers (Bruine de Bruine et al., 2016; Lefevre et al., 2015 Palutikof et al., 2004)

8. However, increased temperatures are not the only projected impact of climate change The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment projects an increase in rainfall and flooding
Rochdale Town Centre, Boxing Day 2015.
Photographer: Chris Birtles

9. Studies 1 and 2 (Taylor et al., 2014; Lefevre et al, in review)
To what extent are perceptions of weather linked to beliefs about climate change amongst UK residents?
Gordon Hatton
John Brightley
Robert Wade

10. Study 1
A lot more frequent
No change
At lot less frequent
“Do you think that the following have become more or less frequent over your lifetime” (n=2007: Survey conducted by Ipsos MORI, 2013)

11. Relationship between perceived change in weather climate change concern
Regression (β)
Wet weather
.28***
Cold weather
.02
Hot weather
.15***
*Sig at p≤.05 **Sig at p≤.01 ***Sig at p≤.001
Note: OLS regression model (β) controlled for demographic variables

12. Explanations
For UK residents extreme wet weather is easier to recall
Availability Heuristic: Threats judged to be riskier when they are easily recalled (Tversky and Kahneman, 1973)
For UK residents hot weather is often felt to be pleasant
Affect Heuristic: Threats judged to be more risky when they (Slovic et al., 2004)

13. Experiential Reasoning:
Limitation: This study only looked at perceptions at one point in time. We can’t tell what causes what.
Experiential Reasoning:
Motivational Reasoning:
Climate
concern
Perceived
weather
Climate concern
Perceived weather
(e.g. Myers et al., 2012; Weber, 2010)

14. *Sig at p≤.05 **Sig at p≤.01 ***Sig at p≤.001
Study 2: A national UK sample was presented with the same questions as Study 1 at three points during 2013/14
Perceived change in…
Oct 2013 Regression (β)
April 2014 Regression (β)
July 2014 Regression (β)
Wet weather
.47***
.43***
.40***
Cold weather
-.04
-.00
Hot weather
.15***
.13**
*Sig at p≤.05 **Sig at p≤.01 ***Sig at p≤.001
Note: OLS regression model (β) controlled for demographic variables

15. Motivational reasoning was found for wet and hot weather.
Experiential reasoning was only found for wet weather.
Conclusions
For UK residents concern about climate change leads to greater perceived experience of wet and hot weather.
However, only perceived experience of wet weather leads to greater climate change concern.
Attributable to the greater “availability” of wet weather, and the positive “affect” evoked by hot weather.

16. Study 3 (Taylor et al., in review) What are UK residents expectations and priorities with respect to the future impacts of climate change?

17. PREPARE (Ipsos MORI, 2013: n=2007)
Each participant randomly shown 10 out of 19 impacts.
Impacts included opportunities as well as threats.
Participants rated expected likelihood, expected concern and willingness to allocate resources.
We compared concern with expert assessments of severity (Climate Change Risk Assessment, 2012)
Taylor et al. (IN REVIEW)

18. Threats perceived as more likely that opportunities
Public expectations not always consistent with expert assessment.
Wet weather and flooding perceived as most likely (and most concerning).
Concern about specific impacts predicted willingness to allocate resources.

19. Conclusions
Concern about specific impacts rather than broader climate concern is linked to greater willingness to expend resources.
However, residents may be less well prepared for future increases in hot weather than future increases in wet weather

20. Study 4 (Taylor et al., in preparation)
How accurate are UK and US residents perceptions of recent temperature and rainfall?
Do UK and US residents differ in the extent to which they link perceived experience of temperature and rainfall to personal threat from climate change?

21. Perceived seasonal temperatures: UK and US residents
“Warmer than normal”
“About normal”
“Colder than normal”
US=488 participants, UK=462 participants

22. Perceived seasonal rainfall: UK and US residents
“Wetter than normal”
“About normal”
“Drier than normal”
US=488 participants, UK=462 participants

23. Key findings
Recalled national conditions did not always match observations, and appear to be driven by prominent events.
Peoples appear to generalise perceived experience of to national and global conditions (“attribute substitution”).
Amongst US residents perceived hot summers linked to greater perceived threat from climate change.
Amongst UK residents wet winters linked to greater perceived threat from climate change.

24. Study 5 (Klima et al., in preparation)
Do UK and US residents differ in the extent to which they are prepared to take steps to adapt to different types of climate change impact?

25. Expectations about future weather
US=474 participants, UK=607 participants

26. Willingness to adapt
US=474 participants, UK=607 participants

27. Note: OLS regression model controlled for demographic variables

28. Key findings
US residents more willing to adapt to increases hot than wet weather.
UK residents more willing to adapt to increases in wet than hot weather
For both UK and US residents expectations about future weather predicted willingness to adapt.

29. Conclusions
Concern about climate change and its impacts linked to “availability” and “affect”.
Perceptions of weather can drive climate change concern, but climate change concern also drive weather perceptions
Public recollections and expectations do not always match expert observations and projections.
Willingness to adapt may be driven more by concern about specific impacts than general concern about climate change

30. Implications for communication
Mitigation
Be aware that the impacts that people associate with climate change varies between regions.
While weather experience can drive concern, concern may also influence perceived weather experience.
Adaptation
Focusing on specific impacts rather than general climate concerns may be more effective in increasing preparedness.

31. Climate Change Adaptation Group

32. Thank you!

33. ‡p< .10 ; *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001
Jul
Jul
Jul
Experiential path
Motivational path
Note: Covariance paths and control variables are omitted for presentation purposes.
‡p< .10 ; *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001

34. ‡p< .10 ; *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001
Jul
Jul
Jul
Experiential path
Motivational path
Note: Covariance paths and control variables are omitted for presentation purposes.
‡p< .10 ; *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001

35. Expert Assessment (CCRA) Public expectations and priorities
Expert Assessment (CCRA)
Public expectations and priorities
Impact
Nature of impact
Projected “Consequence”
Likelihood
(1-5 scale)
Concern
(1-4 scale)
Resource allocation
(Out of 15)
More homes being flooded as a result of heavy rainfall (n=1019)
Threat
High
4.16 (0.78)*
3.29 (0.72)*
2.26 (1.88)*
Poor harvests, due to extreme weather, pushing up food prices (n=993)
No Rating
4.05 (0.83)*
3.46 (0.68)*
2.87 (2.11)*
Low lying coasts being permanently flooded or eroded by rising sea levels (n=977)
Medium
3.95 (0.83)*
3.20 (0.77)*
1.55 (1.52)
Some types of wildlife are lost or decline in number because they cannot relocate to where the climate remains suitable for them (n=1009)
3.95 (0.86)*
3.20 (0.83)*
1.44 (1.62)
New pests and diseases become common in the UK (n=1002)
3.76 (0.90)*
3.20 (0.80)*
1.81 (1.50)*
Public services like roads, power stations, schools and hospitals being disrupted as a result of heavy rainfall (n=1016)
3.74 (0.95)*
3.18 (0.74)*
2.52 (1.91)*
Air pollution gets worse from hotter weather, which particularly affects people with poor health or breathing problems (n=1000)
3.70 (0.95)*
3.15 (0.79)*
1.86 (1.53)*
A reduction in marine wildlife from changes in sea temperature (n=973)
3.67 (0.94)*
3.16 (0.80)*
1.15 (1.26)*
Droughts causing serious water shortages due to changes in rainfall patterns (n=992)
3.63 (0.98)*
3.26 (0.78)*
2.37 (1.80)*
New crops become more common in the UK due to a warmer climate (n=996)
Opportunity
3.56 (0.90)*
2.04 (0.88)*
0.75 (1.37)*
More people’s health suffering in extreme heat due to more frequent heat waves (n=1014)
3.46 (1.03)*
3.16 (0.78)*
1.81 (1.58)*
Increased demand for energy for cooling (e.g. air conditioning) due to a warmer climate (n=987)
3.42 (1.03)*
2.72 (0.85)*
1.07 (1.36)*
Cities and large towns, which trap heat, becoming unbearably hot due to heat waves (n=982)
Region specific
3.27 (1.07)*
2.82 (0.88)*
0.86 (1.07)*
Fewer vulnerable people dying in the cold due to milder winters (n=958)
3.14 (0.95)*
1.90 (0.93)*
0.64 (1.34)*
More people living in the UK take their holidays in the UK rather than going on holiday abroad, due to a warmer UK climate (n=985)
3.06 (1.06)
1.73 (0.80)*
1.07 (1.84)*
Disruption to trains, roads, and public transport due to more frequent heat waves (n=1006)
Low
3.04 (1.06)
2.82 (0.83)*
1.47 (1.45)
More people move to the UK because of changes in the climate of their own country (n=963)
Both
2.93 (1.06)
2.92 (0.91)*
0.31 (0.80)*
Lower demand for energy due to warmer winters (n=974)
2.92 (1.02)
1.71 (0.80)*
0.30 (0.89)*
More tourists choosing to visit the UK because of a warmer climate (n=986)
2.89 (1.00)*
1.82 (0.80)*
0.31 (0.73)*

36. Correlation (Pearson’s R)
Correlation (Pearson’s R)
Regression coefficient (standardized β) showing independent contribution to willingness to allocate resources to impacts a
Impact (ordered by strength of association between perceived likelihood and climate change belief)
Likelihood with concern
Likelihood with climate change belief
Concern with climate change belief
Expected likelihood
Expected concern
Climate change belief
A reduction in marine wildlife…
.51*
.54*
.52*
.08
.29*
-.04
More homes being flooded as a result of heavy rainfall
.50*
.42*
.11
-.05
Some types of wildlife are lost or decline in number…
.49*
.06
.21*
.03
Low lying coasts being permanently flooded or eroded…
.48*
.39*
-.01
.22*
-.06
Poor harvests, due to extreme weather, pushing up food prices
.43*
.46*
.01
.16*
-.12*
Air pollution gets worse from hotter weather…
.44*
.41*
Public services…being disrupted as a result of heavy rainfall
.47*
.14*
-.14*
Droughts causing serious water shortages…
.04
.17*
New pests and diseases… become common in the UK
.37*
Cities and large towns… becoming unbearably hot due to heat waves
.35*
.15*
Disruption to… transport due to more frequent heat waves
.40*
.31*
.34*
.13*
-.09
Increased demand for energy for cooling…
.07
More people’s health suffering in extreme heat…
.30*
.33*
.10
-.10
New crops previously grown abroad become more common in the UK…
.24*
.20*
More people living in the UK take their holidays in the UK…
.09
-.07
More people permanently move to the UK…
.23*
More tourists choosing to visit the UK…
<.01
.10*
Lower demand for energy due to warmer winters…
.02
Fewer vulnerable people dying in the cold due to milder winters…
.12*

39. For US residents perceived threat from climate change was linked to perceived experience of hot summer temperatures.

40. For UK residents perceived threat from climate change was driven by perceived experience of winter rainfall.