Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
1
Demographic Transition
3
Demographic Transition
Shows how population changes over time Knowing where a country falls on the model lets you know what kind of economy that country has & much more!
4
It’s a crystal ball! If country currently falls in stage 2, the model can be used to predict how its population will change over time and how much it will grow
5
The world falls in an early stage 3
Knowing this we can estimate a population projection that the planet’s population has only reached about two-third’s of its potential If we are currently at 6.9 billion, then we can expect once global populations level off in stage 4, our population will be somewhere around 10 billion. This could happen around 2060!!!
6
Let’s Break it down Stage by Stage!
7
Stage 1 Characterized by pre-agricultural societies engaged in subsistence farming and transhumance Subsistence- growing enough to feed your family Transhumance- seasonal migration for food and resources
8
Stage 1 Birth and death rates fluctuate
9
Why high birth rates? Children were an expression of a family’s productivity and status Status of women Because of high infant mortality rates
10
Why high death rates? Overall population has a very low life expectancy Lack of modern medicine and health care Limited sanitation Low nutritional standards Famine War
11
Stage 2 Typically agricultural-based economies
Difference from stage 1? Its usually agriculture for trade, instead of subsistence Rate of natural increase goes up significantly, as birth & death rates grow apart…, so as a country advances the population explodes
12
Birth rate in Stage 2 When you move to a more formalized agricultural based economy children are even more important as a source of labor on farms Role of women has not changed
13
Death Rates in Stage 2 Seasonal migrations decreases, with people permanently settling to farm (reduces death from excessive labor and travel by foot) Larger food supply available because of trading in agricultural goods
14
NIC’s- Stage 2 & 1/2ish Newly Industrialized Countries
Ex. Brazil, Mexico, India You see recent changes from agricultural economy of stage 2 to a manufacturing based economy in stage 3 Rapid population growth- part where birth and death are furthest apart Rapidly increasing rate of urbanization
16
Remember: it’s a theoretical model and not all countries fit the model
Ex. China is an NIC, but due to its one-child policy, appears far more advanced, compared to other NIC’s
17
Stage 3 industrialized or manufacturing based economies
Birth rates decrease, death rates decrease and level off
18
Birth Rates in Stage 3 Decrease due to effects of urbanization
As families move to cities they have less time, less need and most importantly less space for children Access to health care increases & leads to family planning, contraceptives Female employment Education of women
19
Death Rates in Stage 3 Access to health care & nutrition continues to increase life expectancy, which decreases the death rate But eventually death rates bottom out. Why? We are all going to die… at some point you just cant stop people from dying. Life expectancies can go up more later in stage 4, but death rate stays about the same
20
Stage 4 In stage 4, birth and death rates come back together to result in limited population growth and sometimes even decline Here we find our First World countries, they are now “industrialized” But, keep in mind most of these economies are moving toward service industry economies Highly urbanized countries with long life expectancies
21
Birth Rates Birth rates bottom out Roles of women have changed
Women are heavily engaged in business, social & political activities and are far less likely to have kids Low fecundity (- state of being fertile) DINKS- double income no kids
22
Death Rates Still Low!
23
How would it compare with population pyramids?
24
Stage 5? The original Demographic Transition model has just four stages; however, some theorists consider that a fifth stage is needed to represent countries that have sub- replacement fertility (that is, below 2.1 children per woman). Most European and many East Asian countries now have higher death rates than birth rates.
Similar presentations
© 2024 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.