1. CariCOF Climate Outlook November-December 2014/January 2015 and February-March-April 2015
Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck
Participating territories
Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

2. Regional Climate Outlook Forums CariCOF - FCAC
XLII FCAC – Ciudad de Guatemala, 09/

3. RAINFALL

4. NDJ rainfall

5. CPT probabilistic NDJ rainfall forecast
CCA experiments:
1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over September (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library)
2) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over September
3) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , August initialisation)
4) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic
5) Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library)
Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/trop. N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.

6. Experiment 1

7. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = August SST observations E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. Tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library]
Predictand = OND rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 1
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 1
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 123 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !!0.082 Very Limited!!

8. ROC area maps

9. CCA modes

10. Experiment 1 NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

11. Experiment 2

12. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = September SST observations W and 0-30N
(i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library]
Predictand = NDJ rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 5
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 6
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 6
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.118 Limited!

13. ROC area maps

14. CCA modes

15. Experiment 2 NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

16. Experiment 3

17. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = NDJ simulated SST E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, September initialisation]
Predictand = NDJ rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 7
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 8
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.100 limited!

18. ROC area maps

19. CCA modes

20. NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 3
NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

21. Experiment 4

22. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = OND simulated SST 90-20W and 0-30N
(i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, September initialisation]
Predictand = OND rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 8
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 4
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.152 Limited!

23. ROC area maps

24. CCA modes

25. NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 4
NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

26. Experiment 5

27. CPT rainfall forecast Data:
Predictor = NDJ simulated rainfall W and 5S-35N
(i.e. broader Caribbean) [Source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble 24 – from IRI data library]
Predictand = NDJ rainfall for 156 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
X modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
Y modes: max = 5; optimum = 1
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 143 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !0.129 Limited!

28. ROC area maps

29. CCA modes

30. NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 5
NDJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

31. FMA rainfall

32. CPT probabilistic JFM rainfall forecast
CCA experiments:
1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Sep (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from theIRI data library)
2) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over FMA (data source: NOAA CPCFSv2, Sep(initialisation)

33. Experiment 1

34. CPT FMA rainfall forecast
Data:
Predictor = Sep SST observations E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library]
Predictand = FMA rainfall for 165 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 3
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 6
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 7
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 133 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = ! Limited !

35. ROC area maps

36. CCA modes

37. Experiment 1 FMA Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

38. Experiment 2

39. CPT FMA rainfall forecast
Data:
Predictor = FMA simulated SST E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, sep initialisation]
Predictand = FMA rainfall for 165 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 5
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 8
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 7
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 153 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = ! Limited!

40. ROC area maps

41. CCA modes

42. FMA Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 2
FMA Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

43. Supporting probabilistic rainfall forecasts
CARICOF national/sub-regional expert views:
Puerto Rico & USVI: NDJ A = 56% ; N = 28% ; B = 16% FMA A = 50% ; N = 30% ; B = 20% Note: CPT CCA showed limited skill. Under El Niño conditions, a wetter forecast could be expected across PR and USVI during the dry season.
Guadeloupe: NDJ A = 35% ; N = 35% ; B = 30% Martinique : NDJ A = 32% ; N = 36% ; B = 32% French Guiana: NDJ A = 30% ; N = 38% ; B = 32% French Northern Antilles: NDJ A = 35% ; N = 35% ; B = 30% Note: For the Lesser Antilles there is an agreement between several dynamic models (Eurosip, JMA) ) for a drier than normal forecast in NDJ But the statistic SST/RR models (with low skill on the leeward islands) show above terciles. (predictor stay SST over tropical North Atlantic and Pacific, with a low but positive ENSO anomaly). Over French Guiana : The statistic model has good skill and says above. The dynamic models exhibit a drier than normal forecast. Over JAS, the drought situation was: Normal on St. Barth’s and very dry in St. Martin, normal to dry in Guadeloupe, normal (windward side) to extremely dry (leeward side) in Martinique. Wet to exceptionally conditions in French Guiana.
Barbados: NDJ A = 34%; N = 34% ; B = 32% FMA A = %; N = % ; B = % Note: CPT CCA with ERRSTs and CFSv2 SSTs showed limited skill and poor discrimination with ROCs around ECMWF Prognostic map is indicating normal rainfall for the Eastern Caribbean. A slight indicator for above normal rainfall is noted over the northern half of the island chain.
St. Maarten: NDJ A = 33%; N = 35% ; B = 32% Note: Global models are not all in agreement this time around similarly, my experiment do not all give the same indication. Goodness Index was poor except in the case of predicted ssts.

44. Supporting probabilistic rainfall forecasts
CARICOF national/sub-regional expert views:
Trinidad and Tobago: NDJ A = 36% ; N = 34% ; B = 30% FMA A = 33% ; N = 36% ; B = 31% Note: Seasonal climate probabilistic models (IRI, EUROSIP-MM, NMME, ECMWF, UKMET, A) show some divergence in their forecasts for Trinidad and Tobago with IRI indicating Below Normal for NDJ; NMME, EUROSIP, UKMET and ECMWF indicating equal chances for BN, AN,N; while individual NMME models CFSV2, and GFDL favour Above Normal rainfall for NDJ near Trinidad and Tobago. [missing text] as well as Australian rainfall patterns, continue to show some El Niño-like signatures, but remain in the neutral range. ENSO remains in neutral status but the NINO 3.4 region continues to be warmer than average with some connectivity to our region through climate signals. Models suggest there still a reasonable chance for light to moderate El Nino conditions by the end of NDJ. Even though El Nino thresholds have not been met, Trinidad and Tobago rainfall patterns within recent seasons have shown El Nino-like signatures, being drier and warmer than average. SSTs in and around Trinidad and Tobago have warmed slightly but remain cooler than average for this time of the year. SSTs just east of T&T in the North Atlantic Ocean are forecast to be above average during NDJ while those further east are expected to cooler than average. The divergence among individual GPC models and the recent and forecast climatic environment reduces confidence in the NDJ _CPT results.
Jamaica: NDJ A = 34% ; N = 31% ; B = 35% Note: Through the period, the forecasts from the Global Dynamic Models indicate below normal rainfall with warmer than normal temperatures likely to continue across the Caribbean. However, findings from the CPT showed mixed results due to the very low confidence in the sea surface temperature signals. Fifteen rainfall stations were examined across the island, of which eight are likely to receive near normal to below normal rainfall, while seven stations are likely to have above normal rainfall during the period. Stations across southern parishes are indicating low forecast confidence of above normal rainfall. Pending El Niño conditions as well as drier than normal atmospheric conditions across much of the Caribbean continues to be the main reasons for forecasting below average rainfall as well as warmer than normal temperature across most areas of the island.

45. Supporting probabilistic rainfall forecasts
CARICOF national/sub-regional expert views:
Suriname: NDJ A = 62% ; N = 22% ; B = 16% FMA A = % ; N = % ; B = % Note: CPT CCA showed very limited skill (Pearson’s corr 0.35). IRI predicts 40% BN for NDJ.
Belize coast (except south) NDJ A = 40% ; N = 35% ; B = 25% Belize (south/inland) NDJ A = 35% ; N = 40% ; B = 25% Note: CPT CCA with limited skill using September ERSSTs. Forecast based on ecperiment and global models.
St. Vincent: NDJ A = 35% ; N = 34% ; B = 32% Note: CPT CCA with limited skill using ERSSTs and CFSv2 SSTs.
Curaçao: ASO A = % ; N = % ; B = % Note:
Grenada: NDJ A = 27% ; N = 32% ; B = 41% FMA A = 40% ; N = 36% ; B = 24% Note: CPT CCA with moderate to moderate limited skill for NDJ.

46. Supporting probabilistic rainfall forecasts
CARICOF national/sub-regional expert views:
Aruba: NDJ A = 30% ; N = 43% ; B = 27% FMA A = % ; N = % ; B = % Note: CPT CCA showed very limited skill for NDJ. Technical difficulties experienced in FMA experiments. Supporting info: ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model predictions indicate that the present weak El Niño will continue until early next year. The SST anomalies extended all the way along the equator will then gradually turn to an El Niño Modoki. (probability for N is suspicious, given that a correlation skill of >0.9 would be required to obtain a value of 43%)
St. Lucia: NDJ A = 25% ; N = 30% ; B = 45% FMA A = 25% ; N = 35% ; B = 40% Note: CPT CCA showed negative skill for NDJ, fair for FMA using ERSSTs.
Cayman: NDJ A = 44% ; N = 19% ; B = 37% Note: CPT CCA showed very limited to limited skill using Aug ERSSTv3b in terms of correlation skill, but good discrimination of B and A (ROC>0.8)
Dominica: NDJ A = 36% ; N = 32% ; B = 32% JFM A = % ; N = % ; B = % Note: CPT CCA with limited skill using ERSST for September and moderate skill with NDJ CFSv2’.
Guyana: NDJ A = 36% ; N = 35% ; B = 29% Note: CPT CCA with moderate skill using ERSST and CFSv2 SST and moderate to good discrimination.

47. CariCOF CPT output (background) and National/sub-regional rainfall outlooks

48. CariCOF CPT output (background) and National/sub-regional rainfall outlooks

49. CariCOF precipitation outlooks

50. Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts
Eight data sources (incl. GPCs):
IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance);
UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast;
European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts;
APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts;
WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME.
CFSv2 model
MétéoFrance Arpège model.
JMA model
Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T2m outlooks (see Appendix).
Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise:
ENSO conditions have recently been (warm-)neutral (SST anom °C). Most new model runs suggest a progression into an El Niño by NDJ 2014, with an estimated overall confidence of 67% for NDJ and 58-66% for FMA. Similarly, SSTs are slightly above average around N and E of the Caribbean, as well as further out eastward in the N Atlantic. However, this marks a small reversal in anomalies compared to previous months and may be (partly) due to weaker trade winds.associated with an unusual northward excursion of the ITCZ in late September and the first half of October as well as two periods of negative NAO. Into FMA, indications are that eastern portions of the Tropical North Atlantic could return to average SSTs.
Thanks to slightly warmer SSTs around the Atlantic during NDJ, average to above-average air moisture may be the prevalent pattern, marking a shift from a pattern of drier air observed during much of the year. Further, the suggested weak El Niño may sustain increased vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic as well as over eastern and southern Caribbean (including the Guianas).
The signals of added moisture, but possibly stronger wind shear will counteract each other in producing anomalous rainfall. Testimony to the uncertainty as to which factor will dominate is the disagreement between some global models as to NDJ rainfall, with some suggesting below- to normal over the E Caribbean, and others rather above-normal.

51. Probabilistic NDJ rainfall forecast map
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52. Probabilistic FMA rainfall forecast map
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53. 2m TEMPERATURE

54. NDJ

55. CPT probabilistic NDJ 2m temp. forecast
CCA experiments:
1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over September (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library)
2) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over September
3) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over NDJ (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , October initialisation)
4) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over NDJ
5) Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over NDJ (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library)

56. Experiment 1

57. CPT T2m forecast
Data:
Predictor = September SST observations E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. Tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library]
Predictand = NDJ T2m for 51 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 2
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 3
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 36 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = Moderate

58. ROC area maps

59. CCA modes

60. Experiment 1 NDJ T2m Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

61. Experiment 2

62. CPT T2m forecast
Data:
Predictor = September SST observations W and N
(i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library]
Predictand = NDJ T2m for 51 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 3
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 3
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 8
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 36 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = Moderate

63. ROC area maps

64. CCA modes

65. Experiment 2 NDJ T2m Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

66. Experiment 3

67. CPT T2m forecast
Data:
Predictor = NDJ simulated SST E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, Oct initialisation]
Predictand = NDJ T2m for 51 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 2
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 3
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 35 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !Limited!

68. ROC area maps

69. CCA modes

70. Experiment 3 NDJ T2m Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

71. Experiment 4

72. CPT T2m forecast Data: Predictor = NDJ simulated SST 90-20W and 0-30N
(i.e. tropical N Atl.) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, Oct initialisation]
Predictand = NDJ T2m for 51 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 4
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 6
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 7
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 35 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = Moderate

73. ROC area maps

74. CCA modes

75. NDJ T2m Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 4
NDJ T2m Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

76. Experiment 5

77. CPT T2m forecast
Data:
Predictor = NDJ simulated T2m W and 5S-35N
(i.e. broader Caribbean) [Source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble 24 – from IRI data library]
Predictand = NDJ T2m for 51 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 3; optimum = 2
X modes: max = 5; optimum = 5
Y modes: max = 5; optimum = 2
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 36 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = !Limited!

78. ROC area maps

79. CCA modes

80. NDJ T2m Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 5
NDJ T2m Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

81. FMA T2m

82. CPT probabilistic FMA 2m temp. forecast
CCA experiments:
1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SEP (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from theIRI data library)
2) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over FMA (data source: NOAA CPCFSv2, October(initialisation)

83. Experiment 1

84. CPT FMA T2m forecast Data:
Predictor = SEPTEMBER SST observations E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv3b, from IRI data library]
Predictand = FMA T2m for 51 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 2
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 3
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 36 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = Good

85. ROC area maps

86. CCA modes

87. Experiment 1 FMA T2m Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

88. Experiment 2

89. CPT FMA T2m forecast Data:
Predictor = FMA simulated SST E-20W and 30N-20S (i.e. tropical Pacific
& Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv2, Oct initialisation]
Predictand = FMA T2m for 51 Caribbean stations
Parameters:
CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 2
X modes: max = 8; optimum = 5
Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 5
Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 37 stations included in hindcast and forecast
Goodness index (transformed Y) = Good

90. ROC area maps

91. CCA modes

92. FMA T2m Forecast Tercile maps
Experiment 2
FMA T2m Forecast Tercile maps
Above
Normal
Below

93. Supporting probabilistic T2m forecasts
CARICOF national/sub-regional expert views:
Cayman: NDJ A = 74% ; N = 16% ; B = 9% Note: CPT CCA with ERSSTs showed good skill (GI 0.451) and discrimination (ROCs ~0.85).
St. Lucia: NDJ A = 50% ; N = 30% ; B = 20% FMA A = 85% ; N = 10% ; B = 5% Note: CPT CCA showed fair to good skill.
Puerto Rico & USVI: NDJ A = 55% ; N = 25% ; B = 20% FMA A = 65% ; N = 25% ; B = 10% Note: CPT CCA with ERSSTv3b for August showed limited skill.
St. Maarten: NDJ A = 75%; N = 20% ; B = 5% Note: CPT CCA with ERSSTv3b for Sep showed fair skill (GI 0.36) . Temperature will continue to be above normal.
Trinidad and Tobago: NDJ A = 56% ; N = 33% ; B = 11% (Tmax) NDJ A = 58% ; N = 29% ; B = 13% (Tmin)
Jamaica: NDJ A = 65% ; N = 25% ; B = 10%
Belize: NDJ A = % ; N = % ; B = % Note: based on global models.
St. Vincent: NDJ A = 26% ; N = 46% ; B = 29% Note: CPT CCA with fair skill using ERSSTs and good skill using CFSv2 NDJ SSTs.
Dominica: NDJ A = 48% ; N = 19% ; B = 34% Note: CPT CCA with very limited skill using ERSSTs. (climatology period )

94. Supporting probabilistic T2m forecasts
CARICOF national/sub-regional expert views:
Barbados: NDJ A = 60% ; N = 28% ; B = 12% DJF A = % ; N = % ; B = % Note: CPT CCA with Sep ERSSTs showed good skill and discrimination ROCs ~0.8. Climatology
Guyana: NDJ A = 37% ; N = 31% ; B = 32% Note: CPT CCA with Sep ERSSTs limited good skill but moderate to good discrimination.
Curaçao: SON A = % ; N = % ; B = % Note:
Grenada: NDJ A = 43% ; N = 16% ; B = 41% FMA A = 28% ; N = 15% ; B = 56% Note: CPT CCA with negative skill for NDJ and fair skill for FMA.
Suriname: NDJ A = 34% ; N = 29% ; B = 37% FMA A = % ; N = % ; B = % Note: CPT CCA with limited skill. IRI suggests 80% for AN for NDJ (but with longer climatology).
Aruba: NDJ A = 57% ; N = 35% ; B = 7% FMA A = % ; N = % ; B = % Note: CPT CCA with fair skill and good discrimination ROCs close to 0.8

95. CariCOF CPT output (background) and National/sub-regional T2m outlooks

96. CariCOF CPT output (background) and National/sub-regional T2m outlooks

97. Probabilistic NDJ 2m temperature forecast map
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98. Probabilistic FMA 2m temperature forecast map
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99. Drought outlook

100. Supporting probabilistic SPI forecasts
CARICOF national/sub-regional expert views:
Barbados: NDJ (SPI < -1.3) P = 6% Rel. Odds = Note: CPT CCA with poor discrimination ROC 0.56.
St. Vincent: ASONDJ (SPI < -1.3) P = 13% Rel. Odds = 1.2 Note: CPT CCA with moderate skill (GI ).
Grenada: ASONDJ (SPI < -1.3) P = 4% Rel. Odds = Note: CPT CCA with limited skill (GI 0.185) and moderate discrimination ROC 0.67.
Dominica: ASONDJ (SPI < -1.3) P = 44% Rel. Odds = ~8 Note: CPT CCA with moderate skill including two stations from Dominica and 1 from Guadeloupe (Le Raizet).
St. Lucia: ASONDJ (SPI < -1.3) P = 16% Rel. Odds = ~2.0 Note: CPT CCA with very limited skill but good discrimination ROC
Cayman: ASONDJ (SPI < -1.3) P = 16% Rel. Odds = ~2 Note: CPT CCA with limited skill but excellent discrimination ROC 0.97.

101. SPI outlook Aug to Jan – areas under immediate drought concern?
Previous month’s update: drought evolving over Belize, Dominica and Martinique; drought possible in most other areas (left inset).
This month’s update: drought evolving over SE Belize and Cayman; drought possible in most areas (below).
Drought evolving over south-east Belize and Cayman

102. SPI outlook Aug 2014 to Jan 2015 – shorter- / longer-term concern?
Current drought situation:
Haïti, the leeward side of Martinique and St. Martin are in drought and have suffered water shortages.
Recent drought conditions in Belize, Dominica and Jamaica improved.
Shorter-term:
We expect the drought situation to possibly appear some of the islands and improve over others.
Longer-term:
We expect an El Niño to happen by the end of this year. El Niño often results in a drier rainy and dry season.
Water shortages could occur in the dry season, which is our tourist season.
CONSERVE WATER!! Especially in Belize, Cayman, Haïti, Jamaica, and E Caribbean.

103. Interpreting the drought alert levels
Colour
Alert level
Meaning
Suggested action level
GREEN
No Concern
No drought concern
Business as usual
YELLOW
Drought Watch
Drought possible
Keep updated, conserve water
ORANGE
Drought Warning
Drought evolving
Be prepared, conserve water. protect
RED
Drought Alert
Drought of immediate concern
Take action, ration water, protect

104. Appendix

105. US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin

106. US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin

107. NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting

108. Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs
Caribbean & tropical Atlantic
El Niño region

109. Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs
Caribbean & tropical Atlantic
El Niño region

110. Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs

111. Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast

113. IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

114. EUROSIP – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

115. ECMWF – ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast

116. UK Met Office – probabilistic rainfall forecast
ABOVE
NORMAL
BELOW

117. NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast

118. APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

119. WMO LC for LRF-MME – Multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

120. WMO LC for LRF-MME – Individual deterministic rainfall forecast

121. courtesy of Christophe Montout
Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast ***
courtesy of Christophe Montout

122. Japan Met Agency – probabilistic rainfall forecast

123. TRMM Monthly Rainfall Climatology January, February & March

124. TRMM Monthly Rainfall Climatology April, May & June

125. TRMM Monthly Rainfall Climatology July, August & September

126. TRMM Monthly Rainfall Climatology October, November & December

127. IRI – multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

128. EUROSIP – multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

129. ECMWF – ensemble probabilistic T2m forecast

130. UK Met Office – probabilistic T2m forecast
ABOVE
NORMAL
BELOW

131. APCC – multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

132. WMO LC for LRF-MME – Multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

133. WMO LC for LRF-MME – Individual deterministic T2m forecast

134. WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range-Forecast – individual GPC models inter-model consistency

135. Japan Met Agency – probabilistic T2m forecast