1. THAAD in Korea and NE Asia
J.J. Suh (ICU)
August 2016

2. THAAD in Korea & Northeast Asia
What?
Who?
When?
How?
Where?
Why?
Consequences

3. What? THAAD: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense
사드 포대 = 발사대 3개 + 발사통제통신체계 + AN/TPY-2 레이다 + 24발 요격 미사일

4. THAAD Interceptor Missile

5. THAAD Test ( )
October 5, A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor is launched during the system's first operational test at 1:56 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time Oct. 5 at the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Kauai, Hawaii. The test was conducted by the Ballistic Missile Defense System Operational Test Agency with the support of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. During the test the THAAD system engaged and simultaneously intercepted two ballistic missile targets. Learn more at 

7. Who Wants THAAD? Blue House Saenuri Party? The Democratic Party?
Non-Park?
Pro-Park?
The Democratic Party?
U.S. Defense Contractors
U.S. Government
White House
Department of Defense

8. Rockheed Martin Marketing (2013)
Riki Ellison, the founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance said the x-band radar attached to the THAAD system would be able to track missiles over a large area, offering protection not just for South Korea but also for Japan and the U.S.
Riki Ellison, the founder of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance said the x-band radar attached to the Thaad system would be able to track missiles over a large area, offering protection not just for South Korea but also for Japan and the U.S.

9. U.S. Defense Scapparotti, Commander, USFK Winnefeld, VC of the JCS
“[THAAD in Korea] is a U.S. initiative, and in fact, I recommended it as the commander.” (2014.6)
Winnefeld, VC of the JCS
North Korea poses a threat to the US. “We are not betting on Dennis Rodman as our deterrent against a future North Korean (intercontinental ballistic missile) threat” (2014.5)

10. When?
1999 U.S. Defense Report
Based on Rumsfeld Report (1998)
2013
March: Cancel the 4th Stage Europe Missile Defense Plan
Adds more ground-based interceptors in Fort Greely (Alaska)
Deploys THAAD in Guam
Decides to add an X-band radar in Japan
2014
April U.S.-ROK Summit: “interoperable missile defense systems” and “trilateral information sharing”
May Wall Street Journal “The U.S. has conducted a site survey…for a THAAD battery”
May James Winnefeld (VC JCS): weighing a plan to deploy THAAD
June Scapparotti “initial consideration”
June Kim Gwan-Jin (Min Def) : “do not object”
September Robert Work (DS Def): “Considering to deploy a THAAD battery in Korea” “consulting with the Korean government”
October US Missile Defense Agency: To deploy an X-band radar in Japan by end of the year
December Trilateral Information Sharing MOU
2015
February John Kirby (Spokesperson, Def) “continue to consult with the Korean side”
February Tony Blinken (DS, State) “No Decision, No Substantive Consultation”
Mark Lippert (Amb, Korea) : “no official consultation channel with the Korean government”

11. How? U.S. Pentagon studies (1999~) USFK THAAD training (2011~)
U.S. Pentagon contracts THAAD (2013~)
U.S.-ROK Summit 2014
USFK land survey (2014)
Trilateral Info Sharing MOU (2014 December)
Consultation with ROK (2014~)

12. Where? Candidates

13. Seongju Covers: Osan-Pyeongtaek Daegu Busan
Away from the North’s long-range artilleries
Radar range is over 2000km

14. Why? North Korean Nuclear Missile “Threat” To Defend SK?
NK launches ‘Eunha-3’ 2012 December
Panetta (SecD) : “It’s an intercontinental ballistic missile, for God sakes. That means they have the capability to strike the United States.” (2013 Jan)
US taking Countermeaures from 2013
Director, Missile Defense Agency 2014
Blinken, DS, State 2015
To Defend SK?
To Defend USFK?
To Monitor China?
To Defense CONUS

15. To Defend ROK – Rockheed Martin (2013)

16. THAAD Intercept Range (terminal)

17. Impossible to Defend ROK!
US DOD(1999)
Low Tier Defense Systems needed to defend northern areas including Seoul
Dean Wilkening (2000)
520 THAAD missiles needed to defend against 100 SCUD missiles from the North
Stimpson Center (2010)
Questions the Effectiveness of Upper Tier Missile Defense Systems

18. Nodong Missile Trajectories

19. To Defend USFK? Multi-tiered Defense Missile Defense Ineffective
Upper Tier
THAAD
Lower Tier
Patriot-3
Missile Defense Ineffective
Short range missiles and long range artilleries
Dummy missile heads
Defective missile bodies
IBRD flies over THAAD

20. Multi-Tiered Defense

21. THAAD Radar Range

22. To Defend U.S. Con Guam and Okinawa Northern Trajectories
2 X-band radars in Japan
Aegis systems in the seas
Ground based interceptors in Alaska
Ground based interceptors in California
Southern Trajectories
Integrated missile defense systems
No defense
Revised Integrated MD?
THAAD in South Korea
마틴 뎀프시 미 합참의장 2015녀 3월 한미 합참의장 회담 “통합미사일방어 등 다양한 한ㅁ동맹의 성과에 대해 논의했다.”

24. ICBM Northern Trajectories

25. ICBM Southern Trajectories

27. Integrated Missile Defense

28. Figure 1. The land-based radar sensor network for the U. S
Figure 1. The land-based radar sensor network for the U.S. BMDS spans the northern hemisphere.  Aegis radars on ships and at Aegis Ashore sites are not shown.  Missile Defense Agency figure.[11]

30. Notional Interceptor Range - liquid fuel ICBM
Black arrows = fly-out velocity of 4.5km/s
Yellow arrows = fly-out velocity of 6km/s
Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense, National Research Council (2014)
SM-3 IIA has velocity of 4.5km/sec (jointly developed with Japan) (SM-3 IIB 5-5.5km/sec, but cancelled in )

31. Notional Interceptor Range - solid fuel ICBM
The kill vehicle of THAAD flies at 10km/s. THAAD’s response time = 130 seconds
Jong-dae Kim, Disputing the Phantom: The Deployment of THAAD to South Korea, EAF Policy Debates No. 14 ( ).

32. Postol, How Strategic Anti-Missile Defense of the United States Could Be Made to Work, 2011.

33. ICBM Height and Distance
Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense, p. 47

34. THAAD Intercept Range (ascend)

35. THAAD Radar + KEI

36. Consequences Economic Costs Security Costs
1~3 trillion Won per battery * 2~4 batteries=?
Worst outcome for the most expensive
‘China cost’
Security Costs
Korean Peninsula
US-China
SK-Japan-US vs. NK-China-Russia?
사드 1개 포대 도입 비용 = 카타르 1조원 ~ 아랍에미리트 3조원
한미방위비분담금협정 = 한국 분담금 매년 9200억원

37. Korean Peninsula THAAD and Kill Chain New Stage in Arms Race
Preemptive Strike or First Strike?
New Stage in Arms Race
US nuclear vs. NK asymmetric capabilities
US nuclear first strike vs. NK nuclear
US nuclear first strike + missile defense
Defense is Offense within Deterrence
 NK nuclear first strike?

38. X-Band Radar’s Reach

42. Kill Chain Elements

43. Theoretical Questions
Bourdieu: “Doxa”
Foucault: “governmentality”
Sovereignty
Krasner: “hypocrisy”
Anderson: “imagined community”
Polanyi: “double movement”s
Globalization & Neoliberalization
Brexit
Pivot to Asia
New Kind of Big Power Relationship

44. THANK YOU!