2. The Mobile Industry: Today & Tomorrow
June 2004
First Korea-UK
Future Mobile Symposium
The Mobile Industry: Today & Tomorrow
Dr Walter Tuttlebee
Executive Director, Mobile VCE

3. Setting the Scene for Today’s Talks
Talk Structure
Setting the Scene for Today’s Talks
Some history – so you can understand something of how the UK’s role has evolved in this industry
Where we are today – so you can appreciate the thinking of UK industry players and government
The future – some personal perspectives, from a position at the heart of global industry R&D, on future evolution and Mobile VCE’s role in this
Later talks will focus on specific technology factors and topics – this will be an overview

4. Some History: ‘Before 3G’
GSM
Origins – CEPT 1982
Targets
Competing Technical Proposals in Europe
Europe is NOT one country, unlike the USA !
The UK role – ‘The Honest Broker’ !
Base Standards – completed 1989/90
Mandated Spectrum & Technology (Europe)
UK’s 1800 MHz initiative – ‘Phones on the Move’
Infrastructure Deployed – 1991
Handsets Available – 1992
Success Apparent – 1995
Globalisation – 1998
GSM will still be around for many, many years !

5. Some History: 3G 3G Origins – ‘RACE Mobile’ 1988 Targets - 1992
Early 3G research was commercialised pre-3G
GSM1800, diversity, microcells, etc
Base Standards – 1997/98
ITU - A “Family” of Standards
Infrastructure Deployed – Japan 2001/2, Europe 2003/4
(Decent) Handsets Available – 2003/4
Success Emerging – 2004 ?

6. Mobile Communications in the UK Today
Mobile Users
Subscribers: UK – 52m, Europe – 450m
Penetration: UK - 87%, W Europe - 84%, E Europe - 29%
Importance of the Industry to the Economy
2.3% of UK GDP
0.6% of UK Jobs
Mobile Operators
5 network operators including 1 pure-play 3G (‘3’)
MVNOs
Notably BT & Virgin, (upgrading to GPRS & 3G)
Leading Global Mobile Operators
Vodafone, Orange (both board members of Mobile VCE)

7. Transition from 2G to 3G Europe – poorly managed preparation for 3G
Late advent of polyphonic phones, colour screens
Mismanagement of user perceptions of WAP, esp UK
Market was ill prepared
Benefiting from the Downturn
Opportunity for the market to catch up
Operator rollout of 3G-type services using 2.5G
Colour screens, polyphonic phones
Cameraphones
Portals (Vodafone Live!)
Current Initiatives
Music player
Digital TV – DVB-H
BT & Vodafone (fixed-mobile)
BT & GWR (mobile-broadcast)

8. 3G Today in Europe Country markets UK 77% Population Coverage
Pioneer markets 2003 – UK, Italy – 3
Sweden, Denmark – 3
Germany,The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden – Vodafone
UK 77% Population Coverage
June >1m subscribers
Strong growth since Jan 2004
New handsets key to subscriber growth
10-20% of net adds in 1st qtr
Including the LG U8100

9. 3G Today in Europe Pioneer Markets - the UK & Italy - ‘3’
Same problems with initial take-up as DoCoMo’s FOMA in Japan, no decent handsets initially available
Problems exacerbated by need for GSM dual mode
Aggressive voice tariffs, built on lower cost-per-bit
Subscribers by 1st April 2004: UK 377,000, Italy 469,000
Vodafone – pan-European launch spring 2004
Initial focus on business, data, users – 3G/GPRS datacard
Targets high value early adopters
Consumer phones – Samsung Z105, Sony-Ericsson Z1010
Orange, T-Mobile – European launch later 2004

10. Regulation & R&D Regulation – Ofcom – a new regulator R&D
Unified regulation of communications & broadcasting
>50% digital broadcast penetration
Forward looking
Light touch approach
Spectrum trading
R&D
Most global industry players have R&D centres in the UK
Strong Industry-Academic R&D infrastructure
Mobile VCE - long-term, industry-led, research, established 1996, top UK universities – initially as a UK initiative but now global industry members & influence
Focus on long-term industry-led research

11. Mobile VCE Industry Futures Vision Day – January 2004
Who & What ?
Futures – Europe, US, Asia Views
Mobile VCE companies from around the world – inc Korea
Industry Directions
Technology Implications
Where do our industry members want Mobile VCE’s own future research to focus … ?

13. The Future: 4G or ‘Beyond Generations ?’
Origins – 1997
Mobile VCE’s ‘Vision 2010’
Published in the IEE Electronics & Communications Engineering Journal, December 2000
WSI, led to the formation of WWRF
WWRF helped focus the agenda for 6FP
Market Shifts
Developing Markets: Volume – China & India
Developed Markets: Compelling Applications
Industry Shifts
Closer RoI
Core Markets & New Opportunities
Technology Cost Base

14. The Future: 4G or ‘Beyond Generations ?’
Technology Shifts
‘New’ 3G Air Interfaces – WiMAX, Flash-OFDM, etc
Short Range – Personal Environments, Passive Services
Ubiquitous Networking, RFID Integration, M2M
Adaptive Radio & Networks
Regulatory Shifts
Technology Neutrality
but operators want standards…cf FTMC
Unlicensed Spectrum
Ultrawideband … ?
Spectrum Trading – 2006 ?
Is the industry moving ‘Beyond Generations’ ?
Are we seeing a new kind of evolution emerge ?

15. The Future: we need an ‘Industry-Efficient’ Evolution Path
GSM – Latent Market Demand Approach Driven by Politics
1992 Single European Act
Mandated European Spectrum & Technology
3G – A Period of Strong Market Growth Approach Driven by Globalisation
Harmonised Global Spectrum, but …
‘Family of Standards’ → trend to Technology Neutrality
The Future - What are the real Drivers ? What is shaping the Approach ?
Technology still a Key Enabler – but Industry must steer
Content, applications & services will drive new business models – ‘passive’ services, inter-networked applications
Common standards…but how can these fit into a technology-neutral, spectrum-market world ?
How to find an industry-efficient evolution path ?
Key technologies to enable this, and why ?

16. This week, and today, we seek to explore such issues together…
Session Themes
New & Emerging Wireless Technologies
Higher throughput, lower cost-per-bit
Network Technologies in an All-IP World
Towards IPv6 and an inter-networked world
Securing Mobile Services
What new approaches are required to security
Content, Services & Applications
New business models
How should these drive technology research ?
Spectrum – the ‘air’ of mobile comms
Regulatory change & challenges

17. Thank you… Dr Walter Tuttlebee For further information please contact:
Tel:
WWW: