1. CariCOF Climate Outlook and September-October-November 2016
June-July-August 2016
and September-October-November 2016
Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck
Participating territories
Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

2. Regional Climate Outlook Forums CariCOF - FCAC

3. rainfall

4. JJA Rainfall O month lead (ML)

5. CPT probabilistic JJA rainfall forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Apr (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Apr
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , May initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JJA
Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over JJA (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , May initialisation).
Besides the major control of ENSO (here represented by Pacific tropical SST anomalies) and tropical north Atlantic SSTs on Caribbean rainfall variability, these experiments take the contrast between Pacific and Caribbean/tropical N Atlantic SSTs into account, as those factors are regarded as the most important drivers of rainfall throughout the Caribbean.

6. CPT probabilistic JJA Rainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:3
Initial :468
Values : 20
Index : 0.221
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 5
Used : 430
Stations : 10
Moderate
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Experiment 2
CCA modes:4
Initial : 468
Index :0.201
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 6
Y modes : 6
Experiment 3
CCA modes:2
Index : 0.305
Used : 429
Good
CFSv2
Y modes : 2
Experiment 4
Index :0.285
Fair

7. CPT probabilistic JJA Rainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:2
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index :0.241
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
Used : 430
Stations : 10
Moderate
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes :2
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
Index :0.268
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 7
Used : 429
Fair
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 2
Experiment 7
Index :0.278
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 6

8. SON Rainfall 3 month lead (ML)

9. CPT probabilistic SON rainfall forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Apr (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Apr
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , May initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON
Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over SON (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, May initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON.

10. CPT probabilistic SON Rainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:2
Initial :468
Values : 20
Index :0.130
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 5
Used : 435
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes :4
Experiment 2
CCA modes:3
Initial : 468
Index :0.129
90-20W & 30-0N
Experiment 3
Index :0.181
X modes : 4
Used : 432
CFSv2
Y modes : 3
Experiment 4
Index :0.176
X modes : 6
Y modes : 4

11. CPT probabilistic SON Rainfall forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes:2
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index :0.241
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
Used : 430
Stations : 10
Moderate
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Y modes : 2
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
Index :0.197
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 3
Used : 432
!Limited!
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 3
Experiment 7
CCA modes:4
Index :0.187
90-20W & 30-0N
Y modes : 4

12. CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) June-July-August 2016

13. CariCOF Objective Rainfall Outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2016

14. precipitation outlooks

15. Supporting probabilistic precipitation forecasts
Nine data sources (incl. GPCs):
IRI multi-model probability forecast (only multi-model forecast that recalibrates & weights the models based on past performance);
UK Met Office GCM (UKMO) probability forecast;
European Center for Mid-range Weather Forecast GCM (ECMWF) and EUROSIP (multi-model) probability forecasts;
APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi=model probability forecasts;
WMO Lead Centre for LRF – MME.
CFSv2 model
MétéoFrance Arpège model.
JMA model
Environment Canada CMC model
Rainfall outlooks are generated next to T2m outlooks (see Appendix).
Rainfall tendencies from supporting models and local expertise:
El Niño peaked in November 2015 and has weakened to a moderate state by the end of April (Niño 3.4 SST anom. ~1.1°C). Most models suggest a rapidly weakening El Niño, likely disappearing by MJJ 2016, with an estimated overall confidence of ENSO neutral conditions being 55-75% for MJJ. It is expected that either neutral or La Niña conditions will prevail during ASO, with 50-65% probability for La Niña, versus 30-40% for neutral. Tropical North Atlantic SSTs tend to be warmer than average after an El Niño, and are currently above average to the north of the Caribbean Islands. However, SSTs in the southern Caribbean Sea and eastwards in the North Atlantic are near-average due to stronger than average trade winds, but are expected to warm somewhat into MJJ. A cold SST anomaly will likely develop around the equatorial east Atlantic during the MJJ period.
Warm SSTs north and east of the islands may lead to above-average humidity for MJJ and ASO throughout the region. However, perhaps because of the cooling further out in the Atlantic around the equator and west of Africa during MJJ, a pattern of drier air may be observed to reach into the Eastern Caribbean towards July.
Global models are in disagreement as to the expected rainfall during MJJ and ASO, with the exception of the Guianas, which tend to retain a shift to below-normal rainfall in most models.

16. Probabilistic JJA rainfall forecast map

17. Probabilistic SON rainfall forecast map

18. 2m Mean temperature

19. JJA Temperature O month lead (ML)

20. CPT probabilistic JJA 2m Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Apr (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Apr.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , May initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JJA.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over JJA (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , May initialisation).

21. CPT probabilistic JJA 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 4
Initial :74
Values : 20
Index : 0.230
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 52
Stations : 10
Moderate
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 7
Experiment 2
CCA modes: 3
Initial : 74
Index : 0.183
90-20W & 30-0N
!Limited!
Y modes : 4
Experiment 3
Index : 0.258
X modes : 3
Used : 51
Fair
CFSv2
Experiment 4
Index : 0.216
X modes : 4

22. CPT probabilistic JJA 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 74
Values : 20
Index : 0.140
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes : 2
Used : 52
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
Index : 0.240
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 7
Used : 51
Moderate
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 2
Experiment 7
Index : 0.242
90-20W & 30-0N
Y modes : 4

23. SON Temperature 3 month lead (ML)

24. CPT probabilistic SON 2m Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Apr (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Apr.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , May initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over SON (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , May initialisation).

25. CPT probabilistic SON 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Initial :74
Values : 20
Index : 0.160
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 7
Used : 50
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 7
Experiment 2
CCA modes: 1
Initial : 74
Index : 0.091
90-20W & 30-0N
!Very Limited!
Y modes : 4
Experiment 3
Index : 0.190
X modes : 2
Used : 49
CFSv2
Y modes : 2
Experiment 4
Index : 0.183

26. CPT probabilistic ASO 2m Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 74
Values : 20
Index : 0.140
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes : 2
Used : 52
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.238
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 49
Moderate
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 7
Experiment 7
Index : 0.230
90-20W & 30-0N
Fair
Y modes : 3

27. CariCOF Objective Mean T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) June-July-August 2016

28. CariCOF Objective Mean T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2016

29. Temperature outlooks

30. Probabilistic JJA 2m Temperature forecast map

31. Probabilistic SON 2m Temperature forecast map

32. Maximum and Minimum 2m temperature

33. JJA Max. Temperature O month lead (ML)

34. CPT probabilistic JJA 2m Max. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Apr (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Apr.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , May initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JJA.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over JJA (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , May initialisation).

35. CPT probabilistic JJA 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
Initial :51
Values : 20
Index : 0.224
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 6
Used : 39
Stations : 10
Moderate
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 7
Experiment 2
Initial : 51
Index : 0.194
90-20W & 30-0N
!Limited!
Y modes : 5
Experiment 3
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.230
X modes : 4
CFSv2
Y modes : 4
Experiment 4
Index : 0.208

36. CPT probabilistic JJA 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 51
Values : 20
Index : 0.130
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes : 2
Used : 39
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.214
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 7
Moderate
NMME
Y modes : 8
Experiment 7
Index : 0.204
90-20W & 30-0N

37. SON Max. Temperature 3 month lead (ML)

38. CPT probabilistic SON 2m Max. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Apr (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Apr.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , May initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over SON (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , May initialisation).

39. CPT probabilistic SON 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Initial :51
Values : 20
Index : 0.175
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 39
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 2
Experiment 2
Initial : 51
Index : 0.086
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 7
!!Very Limited!!
Experiment 3
Index : 0.211
X modes : 4
Moderate
CFSv2
Y modes : 7
Experiment 4
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.176
Used : 38

40. CPT probabilistic SON 2m Max. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 51
Values : 20
Index : 0.130
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes : 2
Used : 39
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
Index : 0.275
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 38
Fair
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 6
Experiment 7
CCA modes: 4
Index :
90-20W & 30-0N
Moderate
Y modes : 7

41. CariCOF Objective Maximum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) June-July-August 2016

42. CariCOF Objective Maximum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2016

43. Probabilistic JJA 2m Maximum Temperature forecast map

44. Probabilistic SON 2m Maximum Temperature forecast map

45. JJA Min. Temperature O month lead (ML)

46. CPT probabilistic JJA 2m Min. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Apr (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Apr.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , May initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over JJA.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over JJA (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over JJA (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , May initialisation).

47. CPT probabilistic JJA 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 4
Initial :51
Values : 20
Index : 0.150
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
X modes : 5
Used : 40
Stations : 10
!Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 4
Experiment 2
Initial : 51
Index : 0.147
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 7
Y modes : 6
Experiment 3
CCA modes: 3
Index : 0.194
X modes : 4
CFSv2
Experiment 4
Index : 0.164

48. CPT probabilistic JJA 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 51
Values : 20
Index : 0.075
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes : 4
Used : 40
Stations : 10
!!Very Limited!!
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
Index : 0.195
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 39
!Limited!
NMME
Y modes : 8
Experiment 7
Index : 0.185
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 7
Y modes : 2

49. SON Min. Temperature 3 month lead (ML)

50. CPT probabilistic SON 2m Min. Temperature forecast
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Apr (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Apr.
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv2 , May initialisation).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON.
Predictor is predicted T2m over the Caribbean over SON (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , May initialisation).

51. CPT probabilistic SON 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes:4
Initial :51
Values : 20
Index : 0.038
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 41
Stations : 10
!Very Limited!
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 5
Experiment 2
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 51
Index : 0.004
90-20W & 30-0N
Y modes : 4
Experiment 3
X modes : 3
Used : 39
CFSv2
Y modes : 6
Experiment 4
Index : 0.062
X modes : 5

52. CPT probabilistic SON 2m Min. Temperature forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 5
CCA modes: 3
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 51
Values : 20
Index : 0.075
100-40W & 35N-5S
X modes : 5
X modes : 4
Used : 40
Stations : 10
!Very Limited!
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5
Experiment 6
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 4
Index : 0.142
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 39
!Limited!
NMME
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 7
Experiment 7
Index : 0.118
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes :4
Y modes : 3

53. CariCOF Objective Minimum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) June-July-August 2016

54. CariCOF Objective Minimum T2m outlook for the Caribbean (National + Regional Ensemble) September-October-November 2016

55. Probabilistic JJA 2m Minimum Temperature forecast map

56. Probabilistic SON 2m Minimum Temperature forecast map

57. Drought outlook

58. Drought
outlook
MAMJJa

59. CPT probabilistic MAMJJA
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Apr (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over Apr.
Predictor is predicted rainfall totals over the Caribbean over MJJA (data source: ECHAM4.5 ensemble24, obtained from the IRI data library).

60. CPT probabilistic MAMJja Drought forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 2
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index : 0.234
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 432
Stations : 10
Moderate
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 2
Experiment 2
Index : 0.179
90-20W & 30-0N
X modes : 5
! Limited !
Experiment 3
CCA modes: 3
Index : 0.238
100-40W & 35N-5S
ECHAM4.5
Y modes : 5

61. Drought
outlook
djFMAMjjason

62. CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON
CCA experiments:
Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Apr (data source: NOAA ERSSTv3b, obtained from the IRI data library).

63. CPT probabilistic DJFMAMJJASON Drought forecast
Maximum
Optimum
No. of Stations
Missing Y data
Goodness Index
Experiment 1
CCA modes: 5
CCA modes: 4
Initial : 468
Values : 20
Index : 0.236
140E-20W & 30N-20S
X modes : 8
Used : 404
Stations : 10
Moderate
ERSSTv3b
Y modes : 8
Y modes : 5

64. CariCOF Drought Outlook
By the end of August 2016
Coordination – CIMH – Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck
Participating territories
Antigua & Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haïti, Jamaica, Martinique, Puerto Rico, St. Barth’s, St. Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Maarten/St. Martin, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago and the US Virgin Islands

65. Drought Outlook March to August Areas under immediate drought concern?
Current Outlook
Current update (May 2016):
Drought concern has lifted for the region but remains for southern Haïti and west-central Belize.
Previous Outlook

66. Drought outlook – shorter-/longer-term concern?
Current drought situation (up to the end of April 2016): (more information here)
After below-normal rainfall during 2015 resulting in long-term drought, water shortages persisted throughout the first 4 months of 2016 in many portions of the Antilles.
Nearly all island nations of the Lesser Antilles are in longer-term drought.
After a failure of the secondary wet season in the Guianas, short-term drought was alleviated in coastal areas by heavy rains in March, but persisted in the south-western areas of Guyana.
Shorter-term drought situation (till August 2016):
We expect that a shorter-term drought situation may develop in west-central Belize and southern Haïti
Longer-term drought situation (until November 2016):
El Niño peaked in strength last November and has rapidly weakened since then. The El Niño resulted in a drier early part of the year in the Lesser Antilles and a failure of the secondary wet season in the northern Guianas. This has led to drought concerns carrying through to the end of the Caribbean dry season (i.e. May 31), except in coastal areas of the Guianas.
In the islands, the wet season is expected to bring longer-term drought recovery for Barbados, Cayman, central Hispaniola, Jamaica, Leewards, Trinidad & Tobago, US C’bean Terr. and Windwards.
Fading El Niño will likely be followed by a La Niña later this year. This evolution should finally bring drought relief to the region, but may tilt the odds towards increased flash flood potential.
MONITOR DROUGHT & CONSERVE WATER !!

67. Long-term drought outlook Concerns by the end of the Caribbean wet/hurricane season (Nov 30th, 2016)?
This 12-month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations through April 2016, with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12-month SPI is ≤-1.3 (very dry or worse – ref.: CDPMN).
Impactful hydrological drought by the end of the wet season (Nov 30th) is a concern across the Caribbean (insufficient data available for Haïti).
A drought warning is issued for the ABC Islands, Antigua and Barbuda. A drought watch is issued for Barbados, central-west Belize, south Haïti, Leewards except Guadeloupe, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Windwards, and U.S. C’bean Territories.
Current Outlook
Previous Outlook

68. Drought of immediate concern
Alert level
Meaning
Action level
NO CONCERN
No drought concern
monitor resources
update and ratify management plans
public awareness campaigns
upgrade infrastructure
DROUGHT WATCH
Drought possible
keep updated
protect resources and conserve water
implement management plans
response training
monitor and repair infrastructure
DROUGHT WARNING
Drought evolving
protect resources
conserve and recycle water
release public service announcements
last minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades
report impacts
DROUGHT EMERGENCY
Drought of immediate concern
implement management and response plans
enforce water restrictions and recycling
enforce resource protection
repair infrastructure

69. Thresholds Goodness Index Skill Thresholds Negative Skill < 0
Very Limited
0 – 0.1
Limited
0.1 – 0.2
Moderate
0.2 – 0.25
Fair
Good
> 0.3
Drought
Alert Levels
Probabilities
No Concern
< 35
Drought Watch
53 – 50
Drought Warning
50 – 85
Drought Emergency
> 85
Roc
Discrimination
Thresholds No
< 0.5
Poor
Moderate
0.6 – 0.7
Fair
Good
0.8 – 0.95
Very Good
> 0.95

70. Rainfall frequency and extreme forecasts – wet days and wet spells outlooks
June to August 2016
Dr. Cedric VAN MEERBEECK1 , Wazita Scott1, Dr. Simon MASON2, Ángel MUÑOZ2, Dr. Teddy ALLEN2, Dale Destin3
1Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Barbados
2International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA
3Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services

71. Wet day frequency shifts
Forecast for: June to August 2016
USUALLY: Across the region during June-July-August, about 35 to 70 days are wet days.
FORECAST: JJA rainfall is likely to be above- to normal in many parts of the Antilles, as well as the western half of the Guianas, but below- to normal in Belize. Fewer wet days than normal (low to medium confidence) are forecast across the region.
IMPLICATION:
Increasing surface wetness;
Increasing disruption of outdoor activities (however perhaps less often than usual).

72. Wet spells frequency shifts
Forecast for: June to August 2016
USUALLY: Roughly 3 to 6 wet spells occur between June & August, of which 1 to 3 are very wet.
FORECAST: JJA rainfall is likely to be above- to normal in many parts of the Antilles, as well as the western half of the Guianas, but below- to normal in Belize. Fewer wet days and wet spells than normal are forecast, except for the Guianas where more wet spells are forecast (low to medium confidence).
IMPLICATION: Recharging of large water reservoirs after a prolonged drought.
JJA 2016 frequency of 7-day wet spells
JJA 2016 frequency of 7-day very wet spells

73. Extreme wet spells frequency shifts
Forecast for: June to August 2016
USUALLY: Up to 1 extreme wet spell occurs between June & August.
FORECAST: JJA rainfall is likely to be above- to normal in many parts of the Antilles, as well as the western half of the Guianas, but below- to normal in Belize. Fewer wet days and wet spells than normal are forecast, except for the Guianas where more wet spells are forecast (low to medium confidence). There is an increased chance of extreme wet spells in the Lesser Antilles (medium to high confidence), whereas no frequency shifts are forecast elsewhere.
IMPLICATION: Flash flood potential developing.
JJA 2016 frequency of extreme (top 1%)
3-day wet spells

74. June to August 2016 No. of wet days
No. of 7-day wet spells (20% wettest)
No. of 7-day very wet spells (10% wettest)
No. of 3-day extremely wet spells (1% wettest)
Climatology
Forecast
Antigua (VC Bird)
26-43
25-38
0-1
0-0.6
Aruba (Beatrix)
6-16
4-16
0-3.3
0-2.1
0-1.8
0-0.3
0-0
Barbados (CIMH)
34-51
31-45
0.9-3
1-3
0-0.9
Barbados (GAIA)
36-48
34-46
3-5.7
0-1.2
Belize (C. Farm)
33-49
29-45
1-3.5
0-1.4
0-1.7
Cayman
27-42
25-42
0.9-4
0-1.3
Cuba (Punta Maisi)
7-15
6-13
0-1.6
Dom. Republic (Las Americas)
Dominica (Canefield)
49-67
46-64
3.9-7
0-1.5
Dominica (Douglas Charles)
53-70
52-67
Grenada (MBIA)
41-51
40-53
1.1-4
Guyana_73
25-36
27-40
Guyana (Albion)
37-52
37-55
Guyana (Blairmont)
44-60
45-63
1.3-4
Guyana (Charity)
38-57
34-64
Guyana (Enmore)
41-57
41-60
3-6
Guyana (Georgetown)
51-63
48-65
1.3-3
Guyana (New Amsterdam)
46-60
43-58
4-9
Guyana (Skeldon)
45-52
44-53
0-2
Guyana (Timehri)
55-68
55-69
Guyana_Wales
50-64
50-65
Jamaica (Worthy Park)
24-38
20-36
Martinique (FDF Desaix)
48-63
3-5.6
1.2-3
Puerto Rico (San Juan)
31-52
0.8-3
St. Lucia (Hewanorra)
40-57
38-53
0.7-3
0-0.8
St. Maarten (TNCM)
27-45
25-45
St. Vincent (ET Joshua)
54-67
52-68
0-1.1
Suriname (Zanderij)
49-64
Tobago (ANR Robinson)
52-64
Trinidad (Piarco)
43-50
brown is a decrease in frequency, dark blue an increase, grey none are expected

75. June – November Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks prepared by CIMH Kathy-Ann Caesar, Chief Meteorologist Ag.; adapted by Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck, Climatologist

76. June – November 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks
an ACTIVE SEASON ?
compiled by CIMH Dr. Cédric J. Van Meerbeeck, Climatologist
&
Wazita B. Scott, Assistant Climate Forecaster
After Kathy-Ann Caesar, Chief Meteorologist
Quote from Klotzbach and Gray, “the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century. It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
From TSR – “April forecast update reinforces the TSR extended range forecast and anticipates hurricane activity in 2015 will be below norm. Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity is forecast to be about 45% below the long-term norm and about 50% below the recent year norm”

77. 2016 Hurricane Season Forecasts
Forecast Parameter and
Climatology (in parentheses)
CSU (Gray et al)
14 April 2016
Tropical
Storm Risk
27th May 2016
Weather Channel 17th May 2016
NOAA-CPC 27 May 2015 (70% likelihood ranges)
Named Storms (NS) (10) 12 17 14
(B25% - N45% - A30%)
Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 5 9 8
4-8
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 2 4 3
1-4
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
(median = 100) 90
130 -
65%-140%
Gray et al:- Information obtained through March 2014 indicates that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will likely have less activity than the median season. We estimate that 2014 will have only 3 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 9 named storms (median is 12.0), 35 named storm days (median is 60.1), 12 hurricane days (median is 21.3), 1 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (median is 2.0) and 2 major hurricane days (median is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 65 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2014 to be approximately 60 percent of their long-term averages.
We anticipate a below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of a relatively high likelihood of at least a moderate El Niño and a relatively cool tropical Atlantic.
Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

78. El Niño event to be replaced by La Niña
What?
La Niña (El Niño), a periodic cooling (warming) of the equatorial Pacific waters, causes atmospheric conditions that are favourable for tropical cyclones.
What now?
The 2015/6 very strong El Niño is fading.
What next?
El Niño expected to disappear by May or June.
La Niña chances are ~70% at the peak of the Hurricane season (i.e. between August and October).

79. Warm to average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
WHAT?
Heat in the top layers of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea = fuel source for tropical cyclones.
Warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) = more active season.
WHAT NOW / NEXT?
Warm to average SSTs in the west of main development region (MDR) this year & predicted to remain on the warm side. HOWEVER, cool SSTs observed in the east of the MDR .
January to April SSTs (source: IRI, adapted from NOAA)
 more heat  enhanced tropical cyclone activity.

80. Caribbean Landfall probabilities
Klotzbach and Gray
Probability for at least one major (category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane tracking into the Caribbean (10-20°N, 60-88°W)
40% (average for last century is 42%)
TSR - Caribbean Forecast
Lesser Antilles Land falling Numbers in 2015
Possible 2 Named storm and 1 Hurricane
MDR, Caribbean Sea and Mexico (Belize)
Possible 12 Named Storms and 7 Hurricanes, incl intense hurricanes.
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 28% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 15% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 15% (average for last century is 30%)
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)
22% (average for last century is 42%)
1. Atlantic ACE Index and System Numbers Atlantic ACE Index and System Numbers 2015
ACE Index Named Tropical Storms Hurricanes Intense Hurricanes
Average Number ( )
Average Number ( )
TSR Forecasts 8 Apr
9 Dec
2. MDR, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico ACE Index and Numbers MDR, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico ACE Index and Numbers 2015
Average Number ( )
Average Number ( )
TSR Forecast 8 Apr
4. Lesser Antilles ACE Index and Landfalling Numbers Lesser Antilles Landfalling Numbers 2015
ACE Index Named Tropical Storms Hurricanes Intense Hurricanes
Average Number ( )
Average Number ( )
TSR Forecast 8 Apr

81. Disclaimer DISCLAIMER
CIMH is providing special weather interpretation of the current and forecasted tropical weather affecting the Caribbean region.
CIMH is not an official forecasting agency.

83. appendix

84. US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin

85. US Climate Prediction center – Climate Diagnostics bulletin

86. NOAA CPC NAO index monitoring/forecasting

87. Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs
Caribbean & tropical Atlantic
El Niño region

88. Explanatory variables – IRI Predicted SSTs
Caribbean & tropical Atlantic
El Niño region

89. Explanatory variables – ECMWF Predicted Tropical SSTs

90. US Climate Prediction Center – El Niño update

91. Explanatory variables – CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast

93. IRI – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

94. EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

95. ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic rainfall forecast

96. UK Met Office – probabilistic Rainfall forecast

97. NOAA CPC – probabilistic rainfall forecast

98. APCC – multi-model probabilistic rainfall forecast

99. Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast
Météo France Arpège – probabilistic rainfall forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

100. Japan Met Agency - probabilistic rainfall forecast

101. Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic Rainfall forecast
JJA 2015 (0.5 month lead)
SON 2016 (3.5 month lead)

102. IRI – multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

103. EUROSIP - multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

104. ECMWF - ensemble probabilistic T2m forecast

105. UK Met Office – probabilistic T2m forecast

106. APCC – multi-model probabilistic T2m forecast

107. Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T2m forecast
Météo France Arpège – probabilistic T2m forecast *** courtesy of Christophe Montout and Florian Gibier

108. Japan Met Agency - probabilistic T2m forecast

109. Environment Canada CanSIPS - probabilistic T2m forecast
MJJ 2016 (0.5 month lead)
ASO 2016 (3.5 month lead)

110. Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
rcc.cimh.edu.bb
Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology
TEL: (246) /3 | FAX: (246)