1. Welcome and overview of the Skills Summit
David Wells
Chief Executive
Freight Transport Association

2. The Driver Crisis a year on
David Wells -Chief Executive

3. Update on the driver shortage
FTA CEO – David Wells
Welcome
Update on the driver shortage
Progress since last years’ event

4. Where we were a year ago 60,000 drivers short
Recruiting 20,000 drivers a year
Half of all driving tests were not passed
The age profile worsening the problem

5. LGV drivers and employment growth
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey Employment status by occupation, tables EMP04 and EMP16 Q Q2 2015
In Q according to the ONS Labour Force Survey, there were 299,217 people employed as LGV drivers, compared with 323,530 professional drivers 10 years earlier (a reduction of 7.5 per cent). At the same time trends in general employment indicated that there were a total of over million jobs in August 2015 compared to million 10 years earlier, which is an increase of 7 per cent.

6. LGV vs Drivers

7. There is no 'unemployed' pool of drivers
Source: Labour Market Statistics January 2015
The number of LGV drivers claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance was 720 in December 2015, down 44.6 per cent from 1,300 a year ago. This is the second lowest figure recorded during the last 10 years and is 95.3 per cent lower than the peak of 15,255 in March 2009 during the economic downturn.

8. Ageing driver population
Average age of an LGV driver is 48 years rising from 45.3 years in 2001
Source: Quarterly Labour Force Surveys, (Q2 for each year)

9. The age profile stands out …
Data on age from the Labour Force Survey (2015) revealed that over 64 per cent of LGV drivers are 45 years or older.5 This is vastly different to the economy-wide demographics, where the population aged 45 years or older in employment is around 46 per cent. Only 1 per cent of employed drivers are under 25, whereas 10 per cent of the total employed population is under 25.
Source: Quarterly Labour Force Survey, April - June, 2015

10. Apprenticeship uptake …
Increase of 23 per cent in people starting apprenticeship programmes learning to drive goods vehicles in 2014/15 compared to 2013/14.
Source: Skills Funding Agency and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, October 2015
Latest figures published in October 2015 by the Skills Funding Agency and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills indicated that 4,930 people started apprenticeship programmes learning to drive goods vehicles in 2014/15. This is an increase of 23 per cent compared to 2013/14 ending a period of falling numbers. However, the number of participants starting such apprenticeships is 35 per cent lower than 2011/12.
Note: the figure for 2014/15 was restated from 4,920 to 4,930 in the latest update January 2016

11. An increase in DQC initial qualification
Pro rata 35,790
Initial DQC projected to increase 19 per cent by March 2016 compared to the previous year
The figures for drivers acquiring DCPC through the initial qualification (which represents new entrants to the industry who did not hold a Cat C licence prior to 10 September 2009)
Assuming new qualifications do not follow any significant seasonal variation, the number of DCPC initial qualifications for the period from April 2015 to March 2016 is projected to be around 35,790 which would be around 19 per cent up on the previous annualised period.
Source: DVSA December 2015

12. Driving tests up but still only half are passed…
Pro rata: 66,485
Source: DfT 2015 Practical large goods vehicles (LGV) test pass rates (DRT05)
In the first nine months of 2015, there were a total of 49,864 tests conducted which is a 33 per cent increase on the 37,401 tests carried out during the same period in Extrapolating this increase to the end of 2015 yields a projected number of tests of 68,535 for the whole year.

13. FTA survey shows problems recruiting drivers
Source: FTA Quarterly Transport Activity Survey (QTAS) January 2016
According to FTA’s Quarterly Transport Activity Survey (QTAS) January 2016, FTA members reported less difficulty in recruiting drivers in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the third. In Q however, just over 20 per cent of respondents had problems recruiting LGV drivers, this has now increased to around 75 per cent at the end of last year

14. We are about 45,000 drivers short
Summary
45,000 drivers short
An improvement in driver employment and apprenticeships
Half of all driving tests taken are not passed
The age profile still worsening the problem
We are about 45,000 drivers short
And there has been an improvement in driver employment and uptake of apprenticeships
But half of all driving tests taken are still not being passed
The age profile still says the problem will get worse

15. Progress since last year …
1. Loans for licence acquisition developed with DfT, BIS & Treasury
2. New money for licence acquisition in Wales
3. DVLA speeding up driver medical decisions
4. DVSA reducing waiting time for driving tests
5. Sponsorship of Think Logistics to engage with sixth formers
6. Partnership with DWP to help jobseekers
7. Work with the CTP to promote logistics jobs to service leavers
8. Launching new vocational qualifications for transport managers
9. Continued support and sponsorship of Everywoman project
10. Initiated a review of driver facilities by Highways England and by Transport Focus

16. The Driver Crisis a year on
David Wells -Chief Executive

17. Update on the driver shortage Progress since last years’ event
FTA CEO – David Wells
Welcome
Update on the driver shortage
Progress since last years’ event

18. We were about 60,000 drivers short
Where we were a year ago
We were about 60,000 drivers short
We were recruiting about 20,000 drivers a year
Half of all driving tests taken were not being passed
The age profile suggested the problem would get worse

19. LGV drivers and employment growth
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey Employment status by occupation, tables EMP04 and EMP16 Q Q2 2015
In Q according to the ONS Labour Force Survey, there were 299,217 people employed as LGV drivers, compared with 323,530 professional drivers 10 years earlier (a reduction of 7.5 per cent). At the same time trends in general employment indicated that there were a total of over million jobs in August 2015 compared to million 10 years earlier, which is an increase of 7 per cent.

20. Based on the numbers of licensed vehicles and drivers
LGV vs Drivers
Based on the numbers of licensed vehicles and drivers
343,700 HGVs registered on O Licences
299,200 qualified drivers
44,500 drivers short
The driver shortage has reduced to 45,000

21. There is no 'unemployed' pool of drivers
Source: Labour Market Statistics January 2015
The number of LGV drivers claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance was 720 in December 2015, down 44.6 per cent from 1,300 a year ago. This is the second lowest figure recorded during the last 10 years and is 95.3 per cent lower than the peak of 15,255 in March 2009 during the economic downturn.

22. Ageing driver population
Average age of an LGV driver is 48 years rising from 45.3 years in 2001
Source: Quarterly Labour Force Surveys, (Q2 for each year)

23. The age profile stands out …
Data on age from the Labour Force Survey (2015) revealed that over 64 per cent of LGV drivers are 45 years or older.5 This is vastly different to the economy-wide demographics, where the population aged 45 years or older in employment is around 46 per cent. Only 1 per cent of employed drivers are under 25, whereas 10 per cent of the total employed population is under 25.
Source: Quarterly Labour Force Survey, April - June, 2015

24. Apprenticeship uptake …
Increase of 23 per cent in people starting apprenticeship programmes learning to drive goods vehicles in 2014/15 compared to 2013/14.
Source: Skills Funding Agency and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, October 2015
Latest figures published in October 2015 by the Skills Funding Agency and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills indicated that 4,930 people started apprenticeship programmes learning to drive goods vehicles in 2014/15. This is an increase of 23 per cent compared to 2013/14 ending a period of falling numbers. However, the number of participants starting such apprenticeships is 35 per cent lower than 2011/12.
Note: the figure for 2014/15 was restated from 4,920 to 4,930 in the latest update January 2016

25. An increase in DQC initial qualification
Pro rata 35,790
Initial DQC projected to increase 19 per cent by March 2016 compared to the previous year
The figures for drivers acquiring DCPC through the initial qualification (which represents new entrants to the industry who did not hold a Cat C licence prior to 10 September 2009)
Assuming new qualifications do not follow any significant seasonal variation, the number of DCPC initial qualifications for the period from April 2015 to March 2016 is projected to be around 35,790 which would be around 19 per cent up on the previous annualised period.
Source: DVSA December 2015

26. Driving tests up but still only half are passed…
Pro rata: 66,485
Source: DfT 2015 Practical large goods vehicles (LGV) test pass rates (DRT05)
In the first nine months of 2015, there were a total of 49,864 tests conducted which is a 33 per cent increase on the 37,401 tests carried out during the same period in Extrapolating this increase to the end of 2015 yields a projected number of tests of 68,535 for the whole year.

27. FTA survey shows problems recruiting drivers
Source: FTA Quarterly Transport Activity Survey (QTAS) January 2016
According to FTA’s Quarterly Transport Activity Survey (QTAS) January 2016, FTA members reported less difficulty in recruiting drivers in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the third. In Q however, just over 20 per cent of respondents had problems recruiting LGV drivers, this has now increased to around 75 per cent at the end of last year

28. We are about 45,000 drivers short
Summary
We are about 45,000 drivers short
And there has been an improvement in driver employment and uptake of apprenticeships
But half of all driving tests taken are still not being passed
The age profile still says the problem will get worse

29. Progress since last year …
Loans for licence acquisition developed with DfT, BIS & Treasury
New money for licence acquisition in Wales
DVLA speeding up driver medical decisions
DVSA reducing waiting time for driving tests
Sponsorship of Think Logistics to engage with sixth formers
Partnership with DWP to help jobseekers
Work with the CTP to promote logistics jobs to service leavers
Launching new vocational qualifications for transport managers
Continued support and sponsorship of Everywoman project
Initiated a review of driver facilities by Highways England and by Transport Focus