1. Cooperation and synergy in ocean studies between GCR, BCCR and MSC
Helge Drange
G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, NERSC

2. Outline Bjerknes Centre G. C. Rieber Climate Institute GCR/BCCR  MSC
MSC  GCR/BCCR

3. The Bjerknes Collaboration
Institute of
Marine Research
University of Bergen
Geophysical Institute
Dept. of Earth Science
Dept. of Geography
Dept. of Botany
Nansen Environmental
and
Remote Sensing Center .

4. The Bjerknes Collaboration
2002
Institute of
Marine Research
University of Bergen
Geophysical Institute
Dept. of Earth Science
Dept. of Geography
Dept. of Botany
Nansen Environmental
and
Remote Sensing Center .

5. By far the largest climate research group in Norway
Resources
Staff
(Person-years)
70 in science
10 in technical support
4 in administration
By far the largest climate research group in Norway
Research Infrastructure
Climate time series
Climate modelling & supercomputing facilities
Ocean research vessels
Laboratories/measurement systems
Alpine research station
Expertise
Physical oceanography
Chemical oceanography
Paleoclimatology
Global/regional climate modelling
Interdisciplinary
Bridging paleo and instrumental observations, theory and modelling of the coupled physical and geochemical climate system

6. By far the largest climate research group in Norway
Resources
Staff
(Person-years)
70 in science
10 in technical support
4 in administration
By far the largest climate research group in Norway
Research Infrastructure
Climate time series
Climate modelling & supercomputing facilities
Ocean research vessels
Laboratories/measurement systems
Alpine research station
Expertise
Physical oceanography
Chemical oceanography
Paleoclimatology
Global/regional climate modelling
Interdisciplinary
Bridging paleo and instrumental observations, theory and modelling of the coupled physical and geochemical climate system

7. Core activities at GCR Climate Institute and BCCR
Past, present and future climate modelling
Coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system (Bergen Climate Model)
Atmosphere and ocean only systems (ARPEGE and MICOM, respectively)
Mainly global scale modelling
Some regional scale modelling, and then with lateral boundary conditions provided by the global system

8. Climate modelling – academic exercise or (approaching) reality?
Basic climate research  Climate impact studies
Where does the MSC enter the scene?

9. Sea surface temperature from satellite, May
Greenland
Norway
Orvik and Niiler, GRL, 2002

10. Ocean colour (SeaWifs), July 2004
Iceland
Norway UK
Ocean colour (SeaWifs), July 2004

11. The Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model
Dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice modules included
Reference pressure at the surface
24 model layers with potential density ranging from to 28.10
Stretched grids with focus in the North Atlantic-Arctic region (Bentsen et al., Mon. Wea. Rev.,1999)
Daily atmospheric forcing, using
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data
(Kalnay et al., 1996)
• No explicit use of in situ
observations
Period 1948 to present
Integrations conducted:
- 80/40/20 km resolution
- with CFC-11, CFC-12,
137Cs and SF6

12. Simulated and observed mean transports (Sv)
Nilsen et al., GRL (2003), Nilsen et al., in prog.
Passage Dir Mod Obs References
DS N Hansen & Østerhus (2000)
S HØ (2000), Fissel et al. (1988)
IFR Net HØ (2000)
FSC N Orvik & Skagseth (2003)
S HØ (2000), Turrel et al. (1988), Østerhus et al. (1999), Ellett (1998)
Passage Dir Mod Obs References
DS N Hansen & Østerhus (2000)
S HØ (2000), Fissel et al. (1988)
Passage Dir Mod Obs References
DS N Hansen & Østerhus (2000)
S HØ (2000), Fissel et al. (1988)
IFR Net HØ (2000)

13. Rockall Through temp (0-800 m)
Observations (seasonal cycle and averages removed)
Model
Model
By removing the averages and the seasonal cycles we see the observed temperature and salinity series. Treating the simulations in the same way we find a fairly good correspondence, indicating that the upstream hydrography is realistically modelled.
Upper 800m, nested model versus ICES data, modelled temperatures are 0.24 degrees to warm (9.21 degrees C)
Temperature
Salinity
Hátun/Sandø (2004)

14. Transports along Norwegian continental slope = Inflow through FSC
Observed variability
vs. simulated
Gao et al., in prep. (2004)
Orvik and Skagseth, GRL (2004)
Observed transport
7 days low pass
Transports along Norwegian continental slope = Inflow through FSC

15. Upstream effects on the northward flowing Atlantic water*B *A
Changing potential energy difference between the extratopical, A and subpolar gyre B (Curry and McCartney, 2001)
Changes in the average curlzt, (Orvik and Skagseth, 2003)
curlzt=0, i.e.vanishing Sverdrup transport
Discontinuous latitude of the North Atlantic Current (Bower et al., 2002)

16. Conceptual scheme curlzt>0 1.
Atlantic
Norw. Sea
2. As this baroclinic current encounters the European continental slope, a conversion to a barotropic slope current, the NwASC, takes place
Orvik and Skagseth, GRL (2003)

17. Transport & dispersion of 137Cs from the Sellafield reprocessing plant
137Cs Observation Kershaw & Baxter (1995)
Release point
Gao et al. (2004)

18. Observed and simulated concentration of 137Cs in the Barents Sea
5 yr
Solid line Simulated atm. fallout + Sellafield 137Cs
Dotted line Simulated atm. fallout of 137Cs
Circles Observed 137Cs
Gao et al. (2004)
Obs: Kershaw og Baxter (1995)

19. Observed and simulated 0-250 m temperature in the Barents Sea (Kola Section)
Red line Observed T
Black line Simulated T
Gao and Drange, in prep. (2004)

20. Climate modelling – academic exercise or (approaching) reality?
 Unexploited potential for bridging ocean climate observations and models to describe and to understand observed fluctuations in the marine climate system
 Next step is to use data assimilation systems to further improve the simulations; global boundary conditions are available; dynamic interpretation of observed and simulated anomalies are emerging

21. What will the climate of Europe be like in 2020?
Greenland
Coupled climate models suggest the answer may be quite sensitive to the present state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
More research needed to
Better observe the Atlantic MOC
Better understand how current state of the Atlantic MOC constrain its future evolution

22. The importance of decadal climate prediction
Greenland
‘Forecasting’ of climate change has focused on time horizons of years
The longest time horizon considered in strategic planning are generally much shorter: 1-30 years

23. From Predicate (EC FP5)
The evolution of the strength of the Atlantic MOC is relatively stable to perturbations to the system
Collins et al. (2004)

24. From Predicate (EC FP5)
 In general positive coefficient of regression (K per Sv) over northern Northern Hemisphere
Collins et al. (2004)

25. From Predicate (EC FP5)
 Proper 3-D ocean initial state is needed for properly addressing decadal scale climate prediction
Collins et al. (2004)

26. Great potential for collaboration and interaction between G. C
Great potential for collaboration and interaction between G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Bjerknes Centre and the Mohn-Sverdrup Centre