1. Climate Stabilization and the Wedge Solution
Climate Change Solutions:
Climate Stabilization and the Wedge Solution
Nicky Phear
November 5, 2012
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011

2. How Can We Make a Difference?
“If you’re looking for your calling you will find it at the place where your
greatest joy intersects with the world’s deepest needs.”
--words of Fredrick Buechner adapted by Katherine Dean Moore
Individual and Collective Action on Climate Change Climate Change: Science and Society December 8, Nicky Phear
How Can We Make a Difference? 2

3. Climate Change
Why is climate change a problem? What solutions address this problem? How will you engage with or participate in solutions?

4. Exam #3 Questions (1) Elevator /Stairwell Talk
Explain why you think climate change is a problem,
what you think should be done about it,
and how you want to participate in/engage with solutions?
(2) Climate Stabilization and Wedge Solution
What target should we set and why?
How many wedges will this require, and which ones do you think we should be use?
*You are welcome, and in fact encouraged, to work with others to formulate your answers.

5. Climate Stabilization and the Wedge Solution
A Concept and Game
This presentation is based on the “Stabilization Wedges” concept first presented in
"Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” S. Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004
and presentation available at:

6. 2 4 8 800 = Ocean Land Biosphere (net) Fossil Fuel Burning +
billion tons go out
Ocean
Land Biosphere (net)
Fossil Fuel
Burning + 8
800
billion tons carbon
billion
tons go in
ATMOSPHERE
billion tons added every year

7. Past, Present, and Potential Future Carbon Levels in the Atmosphere
Billions of tons of carbon
“Doubled” CO2
Today
Pre-Industrial
Glacial
800
1200
600
400
billions of tons carbon
ATMOSPHERE (
ppm )
(570)
(380)
(285)
(190)

8. Historical Emissions
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16
Historical
emissions 8
1950
2000
2050
2100 8

9. Stabilization Triangle
The Stabilization Triangle
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16
Current path = “ramp”
Stabilization Triangle
Interim Goal
Historical
emissions 8
Flat path
1.6
1950
2000
2050
2100 9

10. Stabilization Triangle
The Stabilization Triangle
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Easier CO2 target 16
Current path = “ramp”
~850 ppm
Stabilization Triangle
Interim Goal
Historical
emissions 8
Flat path
Tougher CO2 target
~500 ppm
1.6
1950
2000
2050
2100 10

11. Stabilization Wedges
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16
Current path = “ramp”
Eight “wedges” are needed to build the stabilization triangle
1 wedge avoids 1 billion tons of carbon emissions per year by 2055
Goal: In 50 years, same
global emissions as today
Historical
emissions 8
Flat path
1.6
1950
2000
2050
2100
As Socolow puts it, “we decomposed a heroic challenge into a limited set of monumental tasks”. 11

13. Seven Ways to Reduce Carbon

14. 15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Energy Efficiency &
Conservation (4)
16 GtC/y
Fuel Switching
(1)
Renewable Fuels
& Electricity (4)
Stabilization
Stabilization
Triangle
Triangle
CO2 Capture
& Storage (3)
8 GtC/y
Forest and Soil Storage (2)
2007
2057
Nuclear Fission (1) 14

15. Efficiency - Transport
“E,T, H” = can be applied to electric, transport, or heating sectors, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$)
Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars
There are about 965 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055

16. Conservation - Transport
Halve the miles driven

17. Efficiency - Buildings
Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings
“E,T, H” = can be applied to electric, transport, or heating sectors, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$)
Davidson Honors College, University of Montana --$12,500 investment, 8 month pay-back
--40%+ decrease in building energy usage

18. Efficiency - Buildings
Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge
“E,T, H” = can be applied to electric, transport, or heating sectors, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$)

19. Efficiency - Electricity
Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency
Average coal plant efficiency
is 32% today
“E,T, H” = can be applied to electric, transport, or heating sectors, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$)

20. Wind – Electricity
Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity
A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30

21. Solar
A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times
Rooftop solar water and space heaters are good for the 1.6 billion people in the world without electricity

22. Biofuels Scale up current global ethanol production by 30 times
Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops

23. Forest Storage Eliminate deforestation Natural Sinks
“T, H” = can be applied to transport or heating sectors, $$=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$)
Eliminate deforestation
Natural Sinks

24. Forest Storage Plant new forests Natural Sinks
“T, H” = can be applied to transport or heating sectors, $$=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$)
Plant new forests
Natural Sinks

25. Soil Storage Use conservation tillage on all cropland Natural Sinks
Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland
“B” = biostorage sector, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$)
Natural Sinks

26. Nuclear Energy Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055
The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from

27. Fuel Switching
Substitute natural gas electric plants for coal-fired facilities; natural gas burns more efficiently and cleanly than coal
Combined cycle generation plants with natural gas achieve 60% efficiency

28. Carbon Capture & Storage
Implement CCS at
800 GW coal electric plants or
180 coal synfuels plants or
10 times today’s capacity of hydrogen plants
“E,T, H” = can be applied to electric, transport, or heating sectors, $=rough indication of cost (on a scale of $ to $$$)
There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500

29. White Roofs
White roofs reflect more sunlight and cool buildings

30. Take Home Messages
In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks
We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions
No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling
Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs

31. Fundamental Human Needs Manfred Max-Neef’s “Human Scale Development”