1. Agriculture and Growth in Uganda
Nathan Fiala
Assistant Professor
University of Connecticut
14 September 2017

2. Growth 1982 to 2015
This and other graphs from EPRC report: Uganda’s Agricultural Sector at Crossroads: Is it a myth or a reality?

3. Challenges to agriculture sector growth
A large contributor to GDP, and growth
But farmers are not using modern techniques
This makes their production lower
And they are very susceptible to weather and other shocks

4. Input quality remains a major issue
An average bag of fertilizer in Uganda contains 30% of the nitrogen it should (Bold et al. 2017)
Only 50% of hybrid maize seeds are authentic
The return to using fertilizer and improved seeds is negative
Farmers and experts do not know what is being planted (Ilukor et al. 2017)
Massive underestimation of the prevalence of improved seeds
By 55pp for improved and 66 pp for hybrid
But average purity levels are low (63% on average)
Where is the breakdown happening?
Ongoing work focusing on identifying priority areas for policy/regulatory along the supply chains

5. Kenyan input manufacturing
Much more trusted internationally, especially in Uganda
Kenya has addressed many of the key issues with production
Incentives to make better seeds and fertilizers are in place
Monitoring is extensive and well facilitated
Farmers are more aware of different quality systems
And farmers can generally see the returns, thus increasing demand
But importing from Kenya is difficult
Import certification harder than current national certification programs

6. Some solutions to input issues in Uganda
E-verification, Kakasa, Blue tags for certified seeds, green tags for quality declared seeds, AgVerify
Some are subsidized, but still expensive for farmers
Significant lack of knowledge of the systems among farmers
Demand and willingness-to-pay for certified inputs is low
District ordinances
Districts are passing laws about selling fake seeds
But its hard to determine what is fake
Community monitoring
Recent evidence from NUSAF2 suggests that communities can be empowered to monitor quality and act on this
But needs to be well targeted with clear power to act

7. Water access and climate change
Timing of planting is becoming difficult
Some new, relatively untested ideas are emerging
Trans African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO)
Local measurements with satellite data
Create localized short-term forecasts
Swaziland reservoirs and water tanks
Water tanks to households
Rehabilitation of water reservoirs for
community crop irrigation

8. Small-scale irrigation solution in Rwanda
Ready to use 1ha, 5ha, and 10ha sprinklers, drip and rain-gun kits
Portable diesel/petrol pump-units and pipes
Rain-water harvesting through tanks (plastic and concrete), treadle pump and dam sheet technologies
Cost about $1,500 per hectare, but are subsidized up to 50%
Individual farmers, but also groups apply for the subsidy

9. Farmer training and beliefs in new products
Extension workers can improve practices, but are not present
Targeting networks and multiple people per village in Malawi (Beaman et al. 2015)
But heterogeneity in returns makes learning difficult (Suri 2011)

10. Consumer and export demand
Enabling smaller farmers/farmer groups to meet requirements to supply large buyer contracts
Issues with quality, quantity and consistency of supply
In the coffee value chain, farmers are unable to afford costly standards certification
Without extension services, large buyers and traders are integrating backwards to provide these services themselves
Exports require good neighbors, or transport systems to good neighbors
Business networks are hard to develop, and producers need help making these

11. Some promising options to improve markets
Farmer linkages
Increase bulk purchasing (IFAD and Swaziland Ministry of Agriculture)
Improve farmer contracting (Casaburi and Macchiavello 2016)
E-markets
Improve information to farmers through SMS messaging in Uganda (UC San Diego and Makerere)
Provide market information in Niger (Aker 2010)
Improve insurance contracting (Kenya, Casaburi and Willis 2017)

12. Summary of policy recommendations
Increase use of modern techniques
Increase input quality (seeds and fertilizer) by enforcing laws and empowering citizens
Improve water access and rain forecasting through small and large infrastructure investment and forecasting
Increase facilitation for extension workers to spread better methods
Support better market linkages and contracts
Improve information farmers have on markets
Increase trust farmers have in market and government solutions
More learning about what is not working, and what can be done better. Experiment so solutions are impactful.