1. 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell:
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Winter 2016
January 19, 2016
Balance and Changing the Balance: The Earth-Sun-Space system in energy balance, role of the atmosphere and role of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and climate; Past variability and historical context; Carbon dioxide budget

2. Class Information and News
Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16
Record of course
Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site
A tumbler site to help me remember

3. Resoures and Recommended Reading
Radiative Balance
Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (2005) Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Chapter 1
From class website
Executive Summary
Chapter 1: Radiative Forcing

4. Outline: Class 3, Winter 2016 Definition and focus on “systems”
In the language of science
In the language of problem solving
Earth-Sun system
Role of the Atmosphere
Fundamental role of greenhouse gases
Other greenhouse gases of high importance
Past behavior
Carbon dioxide budget
Balance and Changing the Balance: The Earth-Sun-Space system in energy balance, role of the atmosphere and role of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and climate; Past variability and historical context; Carbon dioxide budget

5. Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Break into pieces  “granules”
Problem Solving
Unification
Integration
(perhaps not unique)
Reduce, Simplify, Organize, Structure, etc. Perhaps apply a technique from scientific investigation to a complex problem.
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary

6. Problem Solving Brings Focus to System
System (Dictionary Definitions):
a set of connected things or parts forming a complex whole
a set of interacting or interdependent components forming an integrated whole
has: Structure, Behavior, Interconnection
Systems Engineering: study, understanding (analysis), design, management of systems

7. Systems, Scientific Method and Earth’s Climate
First steps in studying system
Defining the system
Breaking down the system to allow understanding
We will use principles of scientific investigation to break down into pieces.
Observations
Theory … Draw a Picture
Prediction
Evaluation

8. EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE
Sun-Earth System
SUN: ENERGY, HEAT
EARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

9. Sun-Earth System CO2 is making the blanket thicker SUN EARTH
PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH
CO2 is making the blanket thicker
FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE
EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

10. The sun-earth system (What is the balance at the surface of Earth?)
If we do an accounting of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F).
But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F).
Earth

11. The atmosphere is hugely important
Earth and its warmth
That in the absence of the atmosphere the temperature would be about -18 C or 0 F
The atmosphere is hugely important
Why? In the absence of solar heating it still gets cold. Seasons there is no solar heating at the pole. It’s like a big spring trying to bring the temperature back down. Phase changes of water. Understanding cold winters. Likely to have air more or less as cold as it has every been.

12. Greenhouse gases (GHG)
Earth's most abundant greenhouse gases
water vapor (H2O)
carbon dioxide (CO2)
methane (CH4)
nitrous oxide (N2O), commonly known as "laughing gas"
ozone (O3)
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
Ranked by their contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most important ones are:
water vapor, which contributes 36–70%
carbon dioxide, which contributes 9–26%
methane, which contributes 4–9%
ozone, which contributes 3–7%
What are the atmospheric lifetimes of the GHGs?

13. Some attributes to hold in mind
We are increasing CO2 – there is a lot of it and it is easy to release. We like fire.
There is an immense amount of water on Earth and it cycles between its different phases.
There is a lot of methane on Earth.
Nitrous oxide is wrapped up in agriculture and fertilizers.
Manufacturing makes very potent greenhouse gases.

14. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas
Data and more information

15. Web links to some CO2 data
NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division
Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gas
Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
NOAA/PMEL CO2 and Ocean

16. This is called “paleoclimatology.”
Let’s look to the past
This is called “paleoclimatology.”
NOAA’s Paleoclimatology Branch
Ice Core Portal
Vostok Data
Petit, Nature, 1999
Koshland Science Museum

17. Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide
Times of high temperature associated with CO2 of < 300 ppm
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
Times of low temperature have glaciers, ice ages (CO2 <~ 200 ppm)
This has been extended back to > 700,000 years
A primary reference for this data is Petit et al. (Nature, 1999). There is a remarkable amount of information in this figure. A good exercise would be to describe the variability in the plot, then to analyze what the plot may or may not be telling you about co2 and temperature as well as global warming. It is also interesting to think about human enterprise and this plot. I would call this one of three canonical figures that needs to be understood for participation in the climate change debate. Models are used here to convert isotopes to temperature, that is a model. Models are pervasive in science.
During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

18. Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide
There has been less than 10,000 years of history “recorded” by humans (and it has been relatively warm)
It’s been about 20,000 years since the end of the last ice age
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
During this period, temperature and CO2 are closely related to each other

19. So what are we worried about?
460 ppm
CO2 2100
So what are we worried about?
390 ppm
CO2 2010
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
Carbon dioxide is, because of our emissions, much higher than ever experienced by human kind
Temperature is expected to follow
New regimes of climate behavior?
Humans are adapted to current climate behavior.
The change is expected to happen rapidly ( years, not 1000’s)

20. Are we saving civilization?
460 ppm
CO2 2100
Are we saving civilization?
360 ppm
CO2 2005
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
If the normal pattern were to continue, without additional carbon dioxide, what would we expect?

21. We have gone through those figures fast
But, but, but, !!!!!!!! Whoa …
The carbon dioxide and temperature sometimes DO NOT seem perfectly related. In the past the temperature increase started before the carbon dioxide increase.
It’s pretty clear that an ice age is on the way. The climate is clearly periodic, and there is nothing we can do about it.
Temperature leads carbon dioxide, hence, current increase in carbon dioxide does not mean temperature will follow. Ice age example not relevant. What is the relation between CO2 and temperature?
Climate is periodic, and what we are observing now is just a natural period and has nothing to do with CO2 emissions.

22. Global cooling?
Why do we think that our predictions today are more robust than these predictions from the 1970s?
Did climate science and scientists loss their credibility because of the 1970s ice age concerns? What is different today? Observations, theory, prediction.

23. From the Ice Core Data: Questions?
We see a relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) and Temperature (T)
What is the cause and effect?
Why do we bounce between these two regimes?
Dynamic equilibrium?
Are these oscillations caused by something “external”?
Are there other parameters or attributes which are correlated with this behavior?
What is different from the stock market, where “past behavior does not indicate future performance?”

24. Let’s Look at the past 1000 years
We have more sources of observations.
We have better observations.
We have public records and literature and natural history.

25. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.
Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years.
Medieval warm period
“Little ice age”

26. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. {
Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record.
What is the cause of the temperature variability? Can we identify mechanisms, cause and effect? How?
This is an important point in the ultimate argument, on short time scales co2 and T are not so well correlated. T responds to other factors. These factors will be evaluated based on modeling experiments, which follow from (imperfect) observations of cause and effect as determined by observable events, e.g. volcanos.

27. What do we see from the past 1000 years
On shorter time scales the CO2 and T are not as cleanly related.
Periods on noted warmth and coolness are separated by changes in average temperature of only 0.5 F.
Changes of average temperature on this scale seem to matter to people.
Regional changes, extremes?
Recent changes in both T and CO2 are unprecedented in the past several hundred thousands of years.
And the last 10,000 years, which is when humans have thrived in the way that we have thrived.

28. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas
Data and more information

29. What about the CO2 increase?
Concept of “stabilization”
CO2 now
Stabilization as we have thought about it in the past may not be possible.

30. Carbon dioxide budget

31. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Important things in this figure.

32. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Enormous amount of carbon dioxide in the ocean.

33. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?-2
What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and ocean.

34. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Large amount of carbon dioxide in the “soil” and plants

35. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?-1
What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and “land.”

36. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Large amount of carbon dioxide in coal, oil, gas

37. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Hundreds of Years
+5.5
What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Movement of carbon dioxide by burning
Millions of Years

38. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?+1
What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Movement of carbon dioxide by land use changes

39. Net sources into the atmosphere
Were you counting?
Net sources into the atmosphere
Net removal from the atmosphere
= 6.5
2+1 = 3

40. Another view of CO2 increase
Global Carbon Project

41. CO2 from 2012 to 2013
Global Carbon Project

42. Carbon and Oceanic Exchange

43. Carbon and Terrestrial Exchange

44. Summary: Class 3, Winter 2016
Basic system for framing Earth’s climate is planet that is warmed by the Sun and that cools to space and reaches a balance.
The presence of the atmosphere means that energy is held near the Earth’s surface.
Keeping Earth’s surface warmer than it would be if the energy was not stored
About 58 F rather than 0 F
Balance and Changing the Balance: The Earth-Sun-Space system in energy balance, role of the atmosphere and role of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and climate; Past variability and historical context; Carbon dioxide budget

45. Summary: Class 3, Winter 2016
Water exists in solid, liquid and gas (vapor).
Water and its phase changes represent energy
Study of past climate reveals variability
Ice
Greenhouse gases
Temperature
Influence on humans
Influence on types of life in general
Balance and Changing the Balance: The Earth-Sun-Space system in energy balance, role of the atmosphere and role of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and climate; Past variability and historical context; Carbon dioxide budget

46. Summary: Class 3, Winter 2016
Humans are NOT required for carbon dioxide variability.
CO2 is increasing in the atmosphere and ocean.
This time it is humans altering the geology of Earth
Anthropocene
For the climate problem CO2 in the environment is increasing. It takes a long time for it to be removed, there is a lot of cycling between atmosphere, ocean and land.
What happens if ocean gets warmer?
In ocean transfer of CO2 between CO2 and calcium carbonate and carbonic acid leads to acidification.
Balance and Changing the Balance: The Earth-Sun-Space system in energy balance, role of the atmosphere and role of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and climate; Past variability and historical context; Carbon dioxide budget

47. Outline: Class 3, Winter 2016 Definition and focus on “systems”
In the language of science
In the language of problem solving
Earth-Sun system
Role of the Atmosphere
Fundamental role of greenhouse gases
Other greenhouse gases of high importance
Past behavior
Carbon dioxide budget
Balance and Changing the Balance: The Earth-Sun-Space system in energy balance, role of the atmosphere and role of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and climate; Past variability and historical context; Carbon dioxide budget