1. 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell:
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Winter 2016
January 14, 2016
Framing the System: Glimpse into the climate change problem using observations and projections; How is science-based knowledge generated? Relation of climate change to global issues: energy, economics, population, consumption; Organizing our response to global warming: Mitigation – Adaptation

2. Class Information and News
Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16
Record of course
Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site

3. Required Reading and Response
Assignment on CTools Site
Paris_Agreement_2015_Final.pdf

4. Resources and Recommended Reading
Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming
And in particular two subsections
Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect:
Simple climate models
Note specific assignment on Ctools site
Rood .mp4 Introductory Lecture

5. A (very) Little History and the Conclusion
Outline: Class 2, Winter 2016
A (very) Little History and the Conclusion
Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem
What is (and is not) “science?”
The scientific method applied to climate
Relation to Energy, Population, Consumption
Response Framework

6. Some history (see Weart, AIP)
The first calculations of the ability of water vapor and carbon dioxide to warm the Earth’s surface are often attributed to Fourier ( ). (I will call this the greenhouse effect.)
Significant improvements to the quantification of the warming due to greenhouse gases is attributed to Tyndall ( )
Arrhenius in the late 1800s made estimates of the impact of doubled carbon dioxide
Water vapor introduced. Water the most important greenhouse gas. Approximately 2/3 rds of warming.
Water is largely saturated. Carbon dioxide is second largest warming. There is a carbon dioxide window, which we are closing.

7. Starting point: Scientific foundation (1)
The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on fundamental principles of the conservation of energy, momentum, and mass.
The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on an enormous and diverse number of observations.

8. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion
Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe that with virtual certainty
The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface has increased due to the addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface. The increase in greenhouse gases is due to human activities, especially, burning fossil fuels.
We are a geological force

9. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion
Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict with virtual certainty
The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface will continue to rise because due to the continuing addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface. The increase in greenhouse gases is due to human activities, especially, burning fossil fuels.
Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt.
Sea level will rise.
The weather will change.

10. Climate science is observationally based
Scientific Approach
Climate science is observationally based
Climate change is computational science
Relies on models

11. Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem

12. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas
The Economist
on 400 ppm
Data and more information

13. The yearly cycle of CO2

14. IPCC 2001
Note: There is
consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C)
This is a remarkable opportunity. We have knowledge, with a high degree of confidence, what is likely to happen in the future.

15. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
Polar amplification:
Why are North (Arctic) and South (Antarctic) different?
Physical geography. Ocean can transport heat to the pole. Atmosphere can transport heat to pole.
Antarctic continent blocks ocean, and topography, order 2 km, blocks atmosphere. Note “band” around Antarctica.
temperatures relative to
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001

16. Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008 http://data. giss. nasa
base period
This is observation from a single year.
Anomaly calculated from 1951 – 1980
Note this is noisier, especially in the tropics. Note high warming in Arctic. This is seen year after year. If you were to average over several years, which is the definition of climate, then Arctic warming would be the most prominent part of the figure.
See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, , 2006

17. IPCC 2013: Observed Temperature

18. IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years
Figure SPM.3. Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature, (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All changes are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961–1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal average values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c). {FAQ 3.1, Figure 1, Figure 4.2, Figure 5.13}

19. Quick Summary: IPCC(2013)

20. IPCC (2007) projections for the next 100 years
Note: From one IPCC assessment to the next, there is no fundamental change in sign and range.
Figure SPM.5. Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980–1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th century simulations. Shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range of individual model annual averages. The orange line is for the experiment where concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values. The grey bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios. The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the grey bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and observational constraints. {Figures 10.4 and 10.29}

21. That’s a glimpse into climate change
We’ve seen this carbon dioxide curve, with carbon dioxide increasing.
I’ve told you that carbon dioxide holds heat close to the surface.
I showed curves and graphs of global averaged surface temperature, past, present, and future.
Showed sea level and snow melt.

22. What parameters/events do we care about?
Temperature
Water
Precipitation
Evaporation
Humidity
Air Composition
Air quality
Aerosols
Carbon dioxide
Winds
Clouds / Sunlight
Droughts
Floods
Extreme Weather
The impact of climate change is
Water for Ecosystems
Water for People
Water for Energy
Water for Physical Climate

23. What is (and is not) “science?”
The Scientific Method

24. Scientific investigation of climate change
What is scientific investigation?
Scientific method
How do we get started?

25. What is science, the scientific method?
Elements of the scientific method
Observations of some phenomenon
Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of suppositions, followed by hypotheses
In principle, hypotheses are testable:
Experiments: cause and effect
Prediction instead of experiments?
Development of constructs, theory, which follow from successful hypothesis.
Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like?
Development of tests, experiments that challenge the hypotheses and predictions.
Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is constructed.
This is a classic definition of the scientific method. Science is use of this method to investigate the subjects of our interest. At a very real level, science is a belief system, where the belief is that this is the way to investigate and generate knowledge. The concept of controlled experimentation is central to the scientific method. However, often it is not possible to develop controlled experiments to investigate a particular field of study. This is mostly true in the study of weather and climate. In this case, it is essential to develop observational campaigns to isolate processes and allow the extraction of cause and effect and to support and refute hypotheses. There are several ingredients to this type of investigate. Models are an important ingredient. With thought models can be used in controlled experimentation to evaluate (verify, validate) our understanding of processes and to make and validate predictions. Models also help us to manage the complexity present in the climate system.

26. What is science, the scientific method?
Science is a process of investigation
The results of scientific investigation are the generation of
Knowledge within a prescribed levels of constraints
Uncertainty: How sure are we about that knowledge?
Science does not generate a systematic exposition of facts
Facts are, perhaps knowledge, whose uncertainty is so low, that we feel certain.
Theories develop out of tested hypotheses.
Theory is NOT conjecture
Theory is subject to change
There is constant challenge and testing
Science requires validation
Requires that hypotheses and theories are testable
Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests.
This is a classic definition of the scientific method. Science is use of this method to investigate the subjects of our interest. At a very real level, science is a belief system, where the belief is that this is the way to investigate and generate knowledge. The concept of controlled experimentation is central to the scientific method. However, often it is not possible to develop controlled experiments to investigate a particular field of study. This is mostly true in the study of weather and climate. In this case, it is essential to develop observational campaigns to isolate processes and allow the extraction of cause and effect and to support and refute hypotheses. There are several ingredients to this type of investigate. Models are an important ingredient. With thought models can be used in controlled experimentation to evaluate (verify, validate) our understanding of processes and to make and validate predictions. Models also help us to manage the complexity present in the climate system.

27. What is science, the scientific method?
Science is a process of investigation
Requires transparency so that independent investigators can repeat tests and develop new tests.
Do you feel that scientific investigation of the climate is “transparent?”
Do you feel that independent investigators affirm basic conclusions?
This is a classic definition of the scientific method. Science is use of this method to investigate the subjects of our interest. At a very real level, science is a belief system, where the belief is that this is the way to investigate and generate knowledge. The concept of controlled experimentation is central to the scientific method. However, often it is not possible to develop controlled experiments to investigate a particular field of study. This is mostly true in the study of weather and climate. In this case, it is essential to develop observational campaigns to isolate processes and allow the extraction of cause and effect and to support and refute hypotheses. There are several ingredients to this type of investigate. Models are an important ingredient. With thought models can be used in controlled experimentation to evaluate (verify, validate) our understanding of processes and to make and validate predictions. Models also help us to manage the complexity present in the climate system.

28. Science, Scientific Method
Scientists DO impart their personalities and beliefs onto their results
But the fact that it is independently testable, ultimately, challenges this potential prejudice.

29. Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
PREDICTION

30. Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
PROCESSES
MODELING

31. Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT

32. Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Problem Solving
Unification
Integration
(perhaps not unique)
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary

33. What is science, the scientific method?
We always have these attributes in the scientific method
Observations of some phenomenon / phenomena
Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like?
How do we affect “control?”
What is “control?”
We are seeking cause and effect.
Validation, can I predict the behavior?
Can I describe this well enough for someone else to repeat it?
This is a classic definition of the scientific method. Science is use of this method to investigate the subjects of our interest. At a very real level, science is a belief system, where the belief is that this is the way to investigate and generate knowledge. The concept of controlled experimentation is central to the scientific method. However, often it is not possible to develop controlled experiments to investigate a particular field of study. This is mostly true in the study of weather and climate. In this case, it is essential to develop observational campaigns to isolate processes and allow the extraction of cause and effect and to support and refute hypotheses. There are several ingredients to this type of investigate. Models are an important ingredient. With thought models can be used in controlled experimentation to evaluate (verify, validate) our understanding of processes and to make and validate predictions. Models also help us to manage the complexity present in the climate system.

34. Relation to Energy, Population, Consumption

35. Climate Change Relationships
We have a clear relationship between energy use and climate change.
CLIMATE CHANGE
ENERGY
The impact of renewables is significant. Without them, the emissions would be even higher.
There are other greenhouse gases.
There are other sources of greenhouse gas emissions.
The build up of carbon dioxide is directly related to combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, natural gas. The vast majority of or energy comes from burning fossil fuels.

36. Climate Change Relationships
Consumption // Population // Energy
ENERGY
CLIMATE CHANGE
POPULATION
SOCIETAL SUCCESS
CONSUMPTION

37. Societal Success and Energy
Low
High
High
This is what we know.
Consumption
Low
High
Low

38. Energy and Economic Success
What countries are missing from this figure?
What has changed since 2005?
The Bottomless Well:
Huber and Mills (2005)

39. Response Framework

40. Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework
Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2
It’s not an either / or argument.
Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere.

41. Summary Class 2, Winter 2016
Greenhouse effect, importance of water and carbon dioxide to Earth’s climate known more than 200 years
Climate Change / Global Warming as a societal issue is primarily motivated by release of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. Warming and consequences have been observed and more is on the way.
Framing the System: Glimpse into the climate change problem using observations and projections; How is science-based knowledge generated? Relation of climate change to global issues: energy, economics, population, consumption; Organizing our response to global warming: Mitigation – Adaptation

42. Summary Class 2, Winter 2016
Scientific investigation is observation based, and relies on evaluation of testable hypotheses.
Generates knowledge and associated uncertainty
Framing the System: Glimpse into the climate change problem using observations and projections; How is science-based knowledge generated? Relation of climate change to global issues: energy, economics, population, consumption; Organizing our response to global warming: Mitigation – Adaptation

43. Summary Class 2, Winter 2016
Climate change / global warming follows from use of fossil fuels as energy and the consumption of energy to improve standard of living
Historically, relatively small portion of population
Future, larger portion of population seeking improved standard of living
The framework for responding to global warming is
Mitigation: don’t do the things that cause warming
Adaptation: respond to warming
Framing the System: Glimpse into the climate change problem using observations and projections; How is science-based knowledge generated? Relation of climate change to global issues: energy, economics, population, consumption; Organizing our response to global warming: Mitigation – Adaptation

44. Thanks
All of this will be discussed in more detail during the course.