1. The Scottish difference
Date here
The Scottish difference
Mark Thomson 1

2. Only a year ago… Premium Organic Values Eating out
Prompted awareness higher:
Females (69% vs 61% males)
18-34s (71%) and 35-44s (70%) vs 53% of 45+s
ABC1s (70% vs 64% C2DEs)
Those living in Aberdeen/Dundee (78% vs 65% Edinburgh and 55% Glasgow)

3. And now… Value Planning ahead Stability Eating in
Prompted awareness higher:
Females (69% vs 61% males)
18-34s (71%) and 35-44s (70%) vs 53% of 45+s
ABC1s (70% vs 64% C2DEs)
Those living in Aberdeen/Dundee (78% vs 65% Edinburgh and 55% Glasgow)

4. So what has been the overall impact?
A couple of housekeeping points before I continue,
Firstly, the methodology is mainly focussed on our purchasing panel of households when focussing on Retailer share and consumer dynamics
I’ll also use the usage panel for elements of the presentation
Price inflation
The fixture
The consumer

5. Average Inflation across 75,000 items is 9.1%
Dry Pasta %
Eggs %
Cooking Oils +26.0%
Butter %
Flour %
Bread %
Average Inflation across 75,000 items is 9.1% 5

6. 12% of Grocery net growth
(total Discounters)
Discounters have attracted +92,786 shoppers over the last year in Scotland alone.
Prompted awareness higher:
Females (69% vs 61% males)
18-34s (71%) and 35-44s (70%) vs 53% of 45+s
ABC1s (70% vs 64% C2DEs)
Those living in Aberdeen/Dundee (78% vs 65% Edinburgh and 55% Glasgow)

7. What are the Options – “I need to reduce spend”
Buy less categories No
Trading Down Retailers
Yes
Spending less Money
Buy on Offer
Yes
Trade down price tiers
Yes

8. What do Scottish households spend more money on?
Fresh Vegetables
Fresh Fruit
Wine
Fresh Milk
Spirits
Cheese
Beer & Lager
Chilled Ready Meals
Chocolate Confectionery
Cooked Meats
Bread
Fresh Poultry
Fresh Beef
Breakfast Cereal
Morning Goods
Wine
Spirits
Fresh Vegetables
Fresh Fruit
Fresh Milk
Chilled Ready Meals
Chocolate Confectionery
Beer & Lager
Cooked Meats
Cheese
Bread
Fresh Beef
Fresh Poultry
Morning Goods
Breakfast Cereal
(X10)
And there has been a shift amongst children. Imagine the longer term impact which current media coverage may have in-store from Jamies School Dinners.
TNS Worldpanel – 52 W/E 10th August 2008
Ranked on total spend (£)

9. Rolling source of change – Fresh Fruit in Scotland
Fewer shoppers purchasing less volume of Fresh Fruit in Scotland moving into 2008.
Rolling source of change – Fresh Fruit in Scotland
TNS Worldpanel - 52 W/E 10th August 2008

10. Portions of Fruit and Vegetables per day
Scotland – decline driven by adults …although children are under-performing vs the GB average
Portions of Fruit and Vegetables per day
5 a day fruit & veg defined as…
Vegetables: fresh seed, fresh leaf, prepared, salad, fresh continental, fresh root (exc potatoes), tinned tomatoes, baked beans & variations
Fruit: tinned/vacuumed, frozen, fresh soft, fresh medium, dried
Fruit & Vegetable Juices GB
Scotland
Total Consumption – 12 m/e May periods

11. Health not top of Scottish consumers minds
Index of Scotland v GB

12. So what is the main difference to the last recession in the early 1990’s?
OK - this map shows the obesity map produced by the UK Government’s Foresight report indicating the trends in obesity observed over the last 18 years.
Many commentators have suggested that the speed with which obesity levels have changed in the population indicates rapid changes to the way that we live our lives.
The prevalence of obesity (BMI>30kg/m2) in Scotland has increased over the past two decades, reaching 22% in men and 24% in women in 2003.
Obesity in children is now common. In Scotland, nearly one in five (18%) boys and over one in ten (14%) girls aged 2–15 years are obese.
Women in Scotland are more likely to be obese than women in England but levels of obesity among
Scotland has one of the highest levels of obesity among OECD countries, second only to the United States of America. (Grant, et al )
Prevalence of obesity (BMI > 30) in UK women
Tackling Obesities: Future Choices

13. Scottish obese less likely to choose for health reasons
% of occasions chosen for health

14. Buying local now more important in Scotland than ever….an avenue?
% of all respondents who agree to the Statement ‘I Try To Buy Local Produce Whenever I Can’
(X10)
And there has been a shift amongst children. Imagine the longer term impact which current media coverage may have in-store from Jamies School Dinners.
TNS Worldpanel – 52 W/E 9th September 2007
() - % change v 2006

15. Little steps are more achievable Moderation
Trading down within markets
Little steps are more achievable
Moderation
Kids and families are more open to change
Emotions have more connection
Icons can work