How Cuban Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba

How Cuban Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba
The 2016 FIU Cuba Poll: How Cuban Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba Slide 1: Before we start, I would also like to say thank you, to Dean Stack and President Rosenberg for supporting our research and to the other units at FIU who contributed funding. (Next Slide)

The 2016 Cuba Poll Sponsors:
Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs Office of the President Cuban Research Institute Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center The Division of External Relations The College of Communication, Architecture and the Arts Telephone surveys of 1,000 randomly selected Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County. Interviews completed in August 2016. Margin of error is plus or minus 3.1%. 12th in the series of Cuba Polls conducted since 1991. Results weighted to be representative of the Cuban-American community of Miami-Dade County as a whole. Slide 1: Before we start, I would also like to say thank you, to Dean Stack and President Rosenberg for supporting our research and to the other units at FIU who contributed funding. The Cuban Research Institute, the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Studies Center, the Division of External Relations and the College of Communication, Architecture and the Arts. And of course my colleague and co-investigator since the beginning of the poll, Hugh Gladwin. This is the twelfth edition of the FIU Cuba Poll and this poll, like the others in their time, offers us a snapshot of some of the political and social concerns of the Cuban-American community in South Florida. We have used the same methodology and the same core questions since 1991 so when you put this snapshot together with the other snapshots we get a glimpse at some of the changes that the community has undergone in twenty five years and the patterns the trends of those changes. I’ll get right into it. We’ll have time for questions at the end.

The 2016 Cuba Poll We sweat the detail of our methodology, as Hugh knows. Here you have a snapshot showing how representative our sample is, when compared to the Census count of Cuban-Americans living in Miami-Dade County. The bottom line is that we feel very confident that the poll is reflecting the views of the Cuban-American population in our area.

Categories used in presentation
The answers to each question are presented in the following order: The percentage breakdown of the answers of the Total Population The percentage breakdown of the answers by time of departure from Cuba. Before 1980 From 1980 to 1994 From

Categories used in presentation
The percentage breakdown of the answers by where the respondents were born In Cuba or outside of Cuba The percentage breakdown of the answers by age of respondents The percentage breakdown of the answer by voter registration status

When will major political change occur in Cuba?
15.4% Now or Within 1 Year 13% 2–5 Years 11.5% 6–10 Years 19.1% Over 10 Years 41% Never Now or Within 1 Year 15.4% 2–5 Years 13% 6–10 Years 11.5% Over 10 Years 19.1% Never 41%

11 8 7 17 57 14 10 16 49 22 12 21 35 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 Analyzed by year left Cuba now or within 1 yr 2-5 yrs in 6-10 yrs over 10 yrs never 10 26 21 23 20 16 9 18 46 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba Analyzed by where born now or within 1 yr 2-5 yrs in 6-10 yrs over 10 yrs never

18 22 14 20 26 15 11 16 37 17 10 5 51 9 6 12 67 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older Analyzed by Age now or within 1 yr 2-5 yrs in 6-10 yrs over 10 yrs never 12 14 20 42 28 13 7 40 60 80 100 percent Yes No Analyzed by Registered to vote now or within 1 yr 2-5 yrs in 6-10 yrs over 10 yrs never We pose this question at the beginning of our survey and have done so for over 25 years. It gets people thinking about how they feel about the ability of Cuba to change. The rest of the survey, of course, is about how they view specific dimensions of that possible change. It is not an overly optimistic view, as you can see. Still, people voice a variety of opinions about specific policies that might bring about change.

The Embargo and Economic Relations
For those of us in the 305 that suffer from “Embargoitis” let’s get to the meat of the question.

How Well Has the Embargo Worked?
6.3% Worked Very Well 12.3% Worked Well 21.3% Not 60.2% Worked Not At All Very Well 6.3% 5.8% Worked Well 12.3% 11.4% Not Very Well 21.3% 19.4% Not At All 60.2% 55% Don’t Know 7.4% NR 1.2% Note the right hand side of the table. This column includes the Don’t Knows and the No Responses. The column on the left are the percentages of respondents who actually express and opinion. No responses are very small usually but don’t know I believe can actually BE an opinion so we’re including it. The pie chart is the total of respondents who express an opinion.

How Well Has the Embargo Worked? (By Year Left Cuba)
8 10 18 65 5 12 17 66 7 14 21 59 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 worked very well worked well not very well worked not at all

How Well Has the Embargo Worked? (By Where Born)
5 13 32 51 7 12 19 62 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba worked very well worked well not very well worked not at all 80%ish agree it has not worked.

How Well Has the Embargo Worked? (By Age)
6 15 28 51 11 21 63 8 10 19 7 13 65 20 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older worked very well worked well not very well worked not at all Again, the differences are at the margins of failure.

How Well Has the Embargo Worked? (By Registered to Vote)
6 12 21 60 5 16 17 63 20 40 80 100 percent Yes No worked very well worked well not very well worked not at all ditto

Favor or Oppose Continuation of Embargo?
36.8% Continue Embargo 63.2% End Embargo Continue Embargo 36.8% 31.6% End Embargo 63.2% 54.3% Don’t Know 9.4% No Response 4.7% Slide A majority of Cuban-American residents of Miami-Dade County oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba. Sixty-three percent of the respondents who express an opinion oppose continuing the embargo. This position remains the majority opinion even when nonresponses are included in the calculations (54%). Opposition to the embargo rises to 72% among Cuban Americans ages 18 to 59. Similarly, 79% of those arriving since 1995 oppose continuing the embargo. Among registered voters, 58% oppose the continuation of the embargo

Favor or Oppose Continuation of Embargo? (By Year Left Cuba)
55 45 38 62 20 80 40 60 100 percent Pre-1980 continue embargo end embargo These are the numbers of those who expressed an opinion.

Favor or Oppose Continuation of Embargo? (By Where Born)
40 60 36 64 20 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba continue embargo end embargo

Favor or Oppose Continuation of Embargo? (by Age)
28 72 45 55 65 35 20 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older continue embargo end embargo

Favor or Oppose Continuation of Embargo? (by Registered to Vote)
42 58 24 76 20 40 60 80 100 percent Yes No continue embargo end embargo

Opinions on the maintenance of the embargo over time (1997-2016)
22 78 37 63 35 65 43 57 55 45 44 56 52 48 20 40 60 80 100 percent 1997 2000 2004 2007 2008 2011 2014 2016 End embargo Continue embargo

Should U.S. companies doing business with Cuba expand, maintain or stop their activities?
21.7% Keep the Same 21.3 Stop Expand 57.0 54.0 Keep the Same 21.7 20.6 Stop 21.3 20.1 Don’t Know 5.3 A majority of the respondents favor increasing economic relations with the island. The expansion of business ties receives support from 57% of the sample and 90% of new arrivals support the expansion or maintenance at current levels of economic activity between the two countries

Should U.S. companies doing business with Cuba expand, maintain or stop their activities? (By Year Left Cuba) 36 24 41 55 21 73 19 8 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 Expand Keep The Same Stop

Should U.S. companies doing business with Cuba expand, maintain or stop their activities?(By Where Born) 59 22 19 57 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba Expand Keep The Same Stop

Should U.S. companies doing business with Cuba expand, maintain or stop their activities? (By Age)
74 17 8 60 22 18 43 25 33 36 40 20 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older Expand Keep The Same Stop

Should U.S. companies doing business with Cuba expand, maintain or stop their activities? (By Registered to Vote) 51 23 26 72 17 10 20 40 60 80 100 percent Yes No Expand Keep The Same Stop

Other Policies and Policy Recommendations

Support for new policies initiated by U.S. government
44.0% Strongly Favor 20.3% Mostly Favor 9.8% Mostly Oppose 25.9% Strongly Strongly Favor 44.0% 38.2% Mostly Favor 20.3% 17.6% Mostly Oppose 9.8% 8.6% Strongly Oppose 25.9% 22.5% Don’t Know 6.5% No Response 5.2%

Support for new policies initiated by U. S
Support for new policies initiated by U.S. government (By Year Left Cuba) 24 14 12 50 43 17 15 25 65 3 8 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Support for new policies initiated by U.S. government (By Where Born)
34 26 15 25 46 19 9 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Support for new policies initiated by U.S. government (By Age)
56 24 9 11 49 23 8 20 33 15 14 39 10 50 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Support for new policies initiated by U. S
Support for new policies initiated by U.S. government (By Registered to Vote) 35 20 12 32 63 25 7 4 40 60 80 100 percent Yes No strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Support for the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations
31.0% Oppose Support 65.3% Oppose 29.4% Don’t Know 5.3% A large majority (69%) supported the decision to open diplomatic relations with Cuba, with younger respondents strongly backing the policy shift (87%). Support for the reestablishment of diplomatic ties maintains a solid majority among all age groups up to age 76 and above, after which it drops to a 43% of the population supporting the policy. Those arriving since 1995 favor the policy shift by 91%. A majority of registered voters express support—61%. This figure balloons to 87% among nonregistered voters (Figure Cluster 6). 69.0% Favor

Support for the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations (By Year Left Cuba)
43 57 65 35 91 9 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 Support relations Oppose relations

Support for the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations (By Where Born)
68 32 69 31 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba favor relations oppose relations

Support for the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations (By Age)
87 13 74 26 55 45 42 58 20 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older Support relations Oppose relations

Support for the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations (By Registered Voters)
61 39 88 12 20 40 60 80 100 percent Yes No favor relations oppose relations

Support for Cuban Adjustment Act
47.3% Strongly Favor 14.2% Mostly Favor 13.4% Mostly Oppose 25.1% Strongly Oppose Strongly Favor 47.3% 46.2% Mostly Favor 14.2% 13.9% Mostly Oppose 13.4% 13.1% Strongly Oppose 25.0% 24.4% Don’t Know 2.3% The Cuban Adjustment Act receives strong backing from the respondents. Sixty-one percent strongly or mostly support the policy that has been applied to Cuban arrivals on U.S. soil since Eighty-four percent of post-1995 arrivals favor the policy while 40% of the pre-1980 support the policy. Fifty-three percent of registered voters support the policy (Figure Cluster 7). Support for the policy has declined rapidly in recent years. The 2014 poll measured an 86% support for the Cuban Adjustment Act among Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade County. Ten point dip in support by registered voters (61% in 2014 to 53% in this poll)

Support for Cuban Adjustment Act (By Year Left Cuba)
29 11 17 44 46 14 16 24 69 15 7 9 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Support for Cuban Adjustment Act (By Where Born)
34 16 21 28 50 14 12 24 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Support for Cuban Adjustment Act (By Age)
54 17 14 15 52 12 22 37 13 16 35 20 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Support for Cuban Adjustment Act (By Registered to Vote)
39 14 16 31 62 12 7 19 20 40 60 80 100 percent Yes No strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Support for requiring proof of political persecution before receiving government assistance
53.3% Strongly Favor 12.1% Mostly Favor 14.9% Mostly Oppose 19.8% Strongly Strongly Favor 53.3% 50.5% Mostly Favor 12.1% 11.4% Mostly Oppose 14.9% 14.1% Strongly Oppose 19.8% 18.8% Don’t Know 4.7% No Response 0.5% Sixty-five percent of the respondents support changes in the Cuban Adjustment Act, requiring entrants to provide proof of political repression before becoming eligible for government assistance. The post-1995 arrivals express the most support for this change in the existing law (71%) as do 61% of registered voters

Support for requiring proof of political persecution before receiving government assistance (By Year Left Cuba) 68 11 10 63 12 13 38 18 34 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Support for requiring proof of political persecution before receiving government assistance (By Year Left Cuba) 51 18 16 54 11 15 21 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Support for requiring proof of political persecution before receiving government assistance (By Age)
38 15 16 30 55 9 20 60 12 67 8 40 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Support for requiring proof of political persecution before receiving government assistance (By Registered to Vote) 58 13 12 17 52 4 19 25 20 40 60 80 100 percent Yes No strongly favor mostly favor mostly oppose strongly oppose

Personal Engagement

Support for Unrestricted Travel for All Americans
73.5% Allow Travel 26.5% Do Not Allow Allow Travel 73.5% 71.4% Do Not Allow 26.5% 25.7% Don’t Know 2.9%

Support for Unrestricted Travel for All Americans (By Year Left Cuba)
50 73 27 93 7 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 allow travel do not allow

Support for Unrestricted Travel for All Americans (By Year Left Cuba)
71 29 74 26 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba allow travel do not allow

Support for Unrestricted Travel for All Americans (By Age)
87 13 80 20 62 38 49 51 40 60 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older allow travel do not allow

Support for Unrestricted Travel for All Americans (By Registered to Vote)
67 33 95 5 20 40 60 80 100 percent Yes No allow travel do not allow

Attitudes toward unrestricted travel over time (1997-2016)
77 23 47 53 52 48 45 55 33 67 43 57 31 69 26 74 20 40 60 80 100 percent 1997 2000 2004 2007 2008 2011 2014 2016 Do not allow Allow unrestricted travel

Send remittances to family or friends
Send Money 46.9% 46.6% Do Not Send Money 53.1% 52.7% 46.9% Send Money 53.1% Do Not Send Money

Send remittances to family or friends (By Year Left Cuba)
25 75 51 49 72 28 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 send money do not send

Send remittances to family or friends (By Where Born)
26 74 51 49 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba send money do not send

Send remittances to family or friends (By Age)
58 42 57 43 32 68 27 73 20 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older send money do not send

Send remittances to family or friends (By Registered to Vote)
40 60 74 26 20 80 100 percent Yes No send money do not send

Receiving Visitors from Cuba
22.6% Had Visitors 77.4% No Visitors Had Visitors 22.6% No Visitors 77.4%

Receiving Visitors from Cuba
15 85 24 76 31 69 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 Analyzed by year left Cuba had visitors no visitors 15 85 24 76 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba Analyzed by where born had visitors no visitors 23 77 30 70 20 40 60 80 100 percent Yes No Analyzed by registered to vote had visitors no visitors

Have you traveled to Cuba?
44.9% Have traveled 55.1% Have not traveled Have Traveled 44.9% Have not Traveled to Cuba 55.1%

Have you traveled to Cuba? (By Year Left)
32 68 49 51 63 37 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 traveled not traveled

Have you traveled to Cuba? (By Where Born)
24 76 49 51 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba traveled not traveled

Have you traveled to Cuba? (By Age)
42 58 52 48 38 62 20 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older traveled not traveled

Have you traveled to Cuba? (By Registered to Vote)
42 58 70 30 20 40 60 80 100 percent Yes No traveled not traveled

Should people living in U.S.be allowed to invest in Cuban businesses?
57.4% Allow Investment 36.4% Do Not 6.2% Not with Raul/Fidel Allow Investment 57.4% 54.7% Do Not Allow 36.4% 34.7% Not with Raul/Fidel 6.2% 5.9% Don’t Know 3.3% No Response 1.4%

Should people living in U. S. be allowed to invest in Cuban businesses
Should people living in U.S. be allowed to invest in Cuban businesses? (By Year Left Cuba) 35 59 6 50 42 7 77 18 5 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 allow invest do not allow Not with Raul/Fidel

Should people living in U.S. be allowed to invest in Cuban businesses? (By Where Born) 62 31 7 57 37 6 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba allow invest do not allow Not with Raul/Fidel

Should people living in U.S. be allowed to invest in Cuban businesses? (By Age) 79 14 7 61 34 5 41 53 6 30 59 11 20 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older allow invest do not allow Not with Raul/Fidel

Should people living in U.S. be allowed to invest in Cuban businesses? (By Registered to Vote) 51 43 6 82 14 4 20 40 60 80 100 percent Yes No allow invest do not allow Not with Raul/Fidel

Politics

Political Party Registration
U.S. Citizens Pre % % % TOTAL 76.0% 53.5% Republican 21.9% Democrat 24.6% Independent Republican 53.5% Democrat 21.9% Independent 24.6%

Political Party Registration (By Year Left Cuba)
70 18 12 56 19 25 30 31 39 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

Political Party Registration (By Where Born)
45 23 32 56 21 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

Party Registration (By Age)
30 22 48 52 24 61 17 74 18 8 20 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT

Political Party Registration Over Time (1997-2016)
69 16 14 67 18 15 68 66 53 27 21 56 20 23 46 30 24 22 25 40 60 80 100 percent 1997 2000 2004 2007 2008 2011 2014 2016 Republican Democrat Independent

Importance of candidate’s position on Cuba when considering vote
36.8% V ery Important 27.7% Moderately Important 15.7% Not Very Important 19.8% Not at All Important Very Important 36.8% Moderately Important 27.7% Not Very Important 15.7% Not At All Important 19.8%

Importance of candidate’s position on Cuba when considering vote (By Year Left Cuba)
38 25 14 23 37 21 18 41 30 15 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 Very Important Moderately Important Not Very Important Not At All Important

Importance of candidate’s position on Cuba when considering vote (By Where Born)
32 35 17 15 38 25 21 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba Very Important Moderately Important Not Very Important Not At All Important

Importance of candidate’s position on Cuba when considering vote (by Age)
26 38 18 28 16 37 25 22 49 17 12 20 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older Very Important Moderately Important Not Very Important Not At All Important

If election were held today… Clinton or Trump
If election were held today… Clinton or Trump? (Asked only of registered voters-July 11-August 14, 2016) 32.9% Clinton 37.4% Trump 18.8% Neither 11.0% Undecided Clinton 31.4 Trump 35.5 Neither 17.8 Undecided 10.4 NA 5.2

If election were held today… Clinton or Trump? (by Year Left Cuba)
23 52 14 11 29 36 22 47 21 10 20 40 60 80 100 percent Pre-1980 Clinton Trump Neither Undecided

If election were held today… Clinton or Trump? (by Where Born)
39 30 23 8 31 18 12 20 40 60 80 100 percent not born in Cuba born in Cuba Clinton Trump Neither Undecided

If election were held today… Clinton or Trump? (by Age)
43 21 26 10 36 33 9 28 46 14 12 22 53 13 20 40 60 80 100 percent 18-39 40-59 60-75 76 & older Clinton Trump Neither Undecided

Conclusion: There are Cubans and There are Cubans
The changing demographics of the Miami Cuban-American population is the driver for changes in attitudes. A large majority of Cubans who recently migrated to the United States and young Cuban Americans welcome the changes in U.S.-Cuba policy. Cuban Americans in Miami express strong support for policies that increase contact between U.S. citizens, including Cuban Americans, and the Cuban people.

Conclusion: There are Cubans and There are Cubans
A majority of Cuban Americans express strong support for measures that increase commercial relations between U.S. businesses and Cubans on the island for specific ventures. Current U.S. immigration policies directed at Cubans receive strong support but restrictive changes in the policy are also supported. Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade County continue to have strong ties to friends and relatives on the island. The new arrivals along with the second/third generations are reshaping the political landscape of South Florida.

2016 FIU Cuba Poll View online at cri.fiu.edu Thank you!

How Cuban Americans in Miami View U.S. Policies toward Cuba

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