1. U.S. and Texas Politics and Constitution The Presidential Election Process March 24, 2015
j. Bryan Cole
POLS 1336

2. Announcements
Chapter 9 Learn Smart module is due this Sunday, March 29, 2015 at 11:59pm
Extra credit opportunity will soon be available on Blackboard
Midterm II
Next Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Same format as Midterm I
Sign up for a CASA reservation
Study guide now available on Blackboard

3. Presidential Election Process: A Timely Subject!
US Senator Ted Cruz formally announces his candidacy for the Republican nomination for President
Could Ted Cruz pull a Barack Obama? From CNN.com. March 23, 2015.

4. Selecting the U.S. President
Remember:
The Constitution only talks about the Electoral College
The U.S. presidency hasn’t always been the leader of the free world
The rest of the process has evolved gradually since then, particularly during the 20th century
Do you think that this process is adequate for selecting the leader of the free world?

5. History of the Nomination Process
Primaries came about as part of the Progressive Era around the early 20th century
Initially, these were limited to state and local contests, but spread to presidential contests
These contests are actually to select delegates to attend the parties’ national conventions

6. Obligations of Delegates Democratic Superdelegates
The Delegates
Obligations of Delegates
Democratic Superdelegates
Pledged to support one candidate
But they can change their minds if their chosen candidate drops out
At-large delegates (no one votes for them)
Became very controversial in 2008

7. Caucuses and Primaries
People go to vote for delegates to attend the conventions
Secret ballots
A short, simple process
People go to meetings to adopt party platforms and select candidates
No secrecy
Long process

8. 1968 Democratic National Convention - Chicago
Eugene McCarthy had won a large number of primaries, but the delegates nominated Hubert Humphrey
McGovern-Fraser Commission institutes reforms which (unintentionally) allowed the Iowa Caucuses to gain influence

9. Iowa Caucus Overview
Iowa has layered caucuses, so the delegates aren’t formally selected until much later:
Initial contests in precincts
County caucuses
Congressional district caucuses
Statewide convention
McGovern-Fraser Commission opens up participation to rank-and-file members and requires greater transparency in delegate selection (which means that delegates can’t get selected more than a year before the convention)

10. The 1976 Presidential Election and the Accident of the Iowa Caucuses
A then-unknown Southern governor comes in 1st place in the Iowa caucuses (28%), though 37% were uncommitted
The modern-day Iowa caucus is born!

11. How Caucuses Work (and Generate Controversy)
Example using stick figures
Example from a Des Moines Precinct During the 2008 Caucus
Turnout
Often about 6 percent; was a record 12 percent in 2008
Who turns out?
Is Iowa representative of the nation as a whole?

12. Recent Iowa Caucuses Democrats: Obama
2008
2012
Democrats: Obama
Republicans: Mike Huckabee (Fmr. Arkansas Governor)
Democrats: Obama (uncontested)
Republicans: Rick Santorum (Fmr. Pennsylvania Senator) barely defeated Romney

13. Primaries Off to New Hampshire!
More like traditional elections, but there are sometimes restrictions concerning who is allowed to participate
Types of primaries
Open primaries (Texas) – allow for strategic voting (ex. some McCain supporters voted for Obama in 2008 because they thought McCain could more easily defeat Obama than Clinton
Semi-open primaries – you can request a ballot for either party, but it will a matter of public record
Closed primaries – you have to be registered officially with a given political party in order to vote in its primary

14. Recent New Hampshire Primaries
2008
2012
Democrats: Hillary Clinton
Republicans: John McCain
Democrats: Obama (uncontested)
Republicans: Romney

15. Advantages of Caucuses Advantages of Primaries
Caucuses v. Primaries
Advantages of Caucuses
Advantages of Primaries

16. Advantages of Caucuses Advantages of Primaries
Caucuses v. Primaries
Advantages of Caucuses
Advantages of Primaries

17. Which approach do you support for selecting presidential nominees?
Primaries
Caucuses
Not sure

18. Frontloading
Frontloading: moving caucuses and primaries up in order for your state to have more say in who the nominees will be
Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire are first
2008 problems with frontloading

19. General Remarks about the Primaries/Caucuses
Parties have lots of control over how these are conducted and how the delegates are allocated:
Winner-take-all
Proportional representation
GOP usually done with this stage much faster (but not during 2012!)

20. The Conventions Very great suspense Select the parties’ nominees
Historically
In Recent Years
Very great suspense
Select the parties’ nominees
Announcements of VP candidates and acceptance speeches by both candidates
Setting party platforms
Now, these events are just formalities
Gives each party a week in the spotlight
Still feature acceptance speeches and setting of party platforms

21. George W. Bush and Debates
“I had seen enough politics to know you can’t really win a debate. You can only lose by saying something stupid or looking tired or nervous…I made my case confidently and avoided any major gaffes,” (p. 54)
Bush commenting on his 1994 gubernatorial debate with incumbent Ann Richards

22. Debates in 2012
For each election, the parties and candidates must agree on the terms of the debates
Debates are often a draw, though Obama is widely said to have “lost” the first 2012 debate
Highlights from the 2nd 2012 Presidential Debate

23. Agree or disagree: I found the 2012 presidential debates to be informative.
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
Didn’t watch/didn’t watch enough to say
Don’t know

24. Toward Election Day After the debates:
Final push for ads and winning over the (by now) very small number of “undecideds”
GOTV activities begin, especially in states with early voting
Election Day on the 1st Tuesday after the 1st Monday in November

25. The Electoral College Meets
Electoral College meets on the 1st Monday after the 2nd Wednesday in December
2012 Results: for Obama

26. Small Group Readings and Discussions
Do you think that the presidential nomination/election process should be reformed? Why/why not? How?
Form groups of 4 and read over your assigned article/op-ed.
Be prepared to state to the class:
What is the author(s)’s point?
Do you agree? Why/why not?

27. Articles and Op-eds
Primaries, Caucuses and Conventions...Oh My! (PDF; read only the first 3 pages)
Fix the Primaries: The American Plan
Column: why we should kill the Iowa caucuses
Iowa serves the presidential nomination process well (PDF)
Five myths about the electoral college
In Defense of the Electoral College

28. The Electoral College should be abolished and replaced with the popular vote.
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
Didn’t watch/didn’t watch enough to say
Don’t know