1. Childfree?
Or happy family?

2. Why such a big difference in family size between the religious and the non-religious (in Switzerland) ?
Dr Marion Burkimsher

3. Structure of presentation
Switzerland compared to other European countries
Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials
Who are the religious ‘nones’?
Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness
Different expectations by religiosity
Who succeeds in having a child they say they want?
Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia
Outstanding questions

4. Structure of presentation
Switzerland compared to other western European countries
Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials
Who are the religious ‘nones’?
Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness
Different expectations by religiosity
Who succeeds in having a child they say they want?
Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia
Outstanding questions

5. Number of children by religiosity, women aged 25-40
Attenders
Affiliated, non-attenders
Nones
(Attenders-nones)
United Kingdom
1.61
1.20
1.34
0.27
Sweden
1.60
1.17
1.23
0.37
Netherlands
1.58
1.42
1.09
0.49
France
1.93
1.37
1.35
0.58
Germany
1.38
1.04
0.75
0.62
Spain
1.31
0.83
0.65
0.66
Austria
1.74
1.16
0.98
0.76
Switzerland
2.08
1.27
0.97
1.11
Russia
-0.11
European Social Survey 2006

6. Structure of presentation
Switzerland compared to other western European countries
Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials
Who are the religious ‘nones’?
Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness
Different expectations by religiosity
Who succeeds in having a child they say they want?
Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia
Outstanding questions

7. Introduction to Swiss context
A third of adults aged ~30 born outside Switzerland:
bordering countries
former Yugoslavia
Spain & Portugal
Eastern European countries
Total fertility rate (TFR): 1.38 in > 1.54 in 2014
Mean (and median and mode) age at 1st birth > 30 years, ongoing rise which depresses the TFR measure
Actual average family size ~ 1.7 projected for 1980 cohort of women
20% of women remain childless, > 30% if tertiary educated

8. Trends for 1952-1977 cohort aged 22-47 in 1999; 32-57 in 2009, n=2000-3000
Frequent prayer: prays outside church >= once/week
Regular attender = participation in religious services >= monthly
No religion = religious affiliation ‘none’
Swiss Household Panel

9. Religious affiliation and attendance, M&W aged 40-60
11%
25%
Family & Generations Survey 2013

10. Religious affiliation and attendance, M&W aged 21-357%
16%
Family & Generations Survey 2013

11. Religious affiliation and attendance and number of children M&W aged 40-60
11%
1.8
2.0
25%
1.9
1.5
Family & Generations Survey 2013

12. Structure of presentation
Switzerland compared to other western European countries
Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials
Who are the religious ‘nones’?
Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness
Different expectations by religiosity
Who succeeds in having a child they say they want?
Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia
Outstanding questions

13. Religious ‘nones’ Religiously active
in order of importance
Religiously active
Parents divorced
Parents stayed married
French-speaking areas (esp. Geneva)
Rural
Only child
3+ siblings
Single
Married
Born abroad
Born in Switzerland
Struggle to pay unexpected bill of $2000
Could pay unexpected bill of $2000
Tertiary educated
Low education
Male
Female
Higher income
Middle or low income
Binary logistic regression, likelihood of being a religious none Family & Generations Survey 2013

14. Structure of presentation
Switzerland compared to other western European countries
Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials
Who are the religious ‘nones’?
Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness
Different expectations by religiosity
Who succeeds in having a child they say they want?
Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia
Outstanding questions

15. Differentials in desire for children, partnering, childlessness
Family & Generations Survey 2013
‘Wants no kids’ from sample of childless M&W aged 21-35
Never married/partnered and childless from sample M&W aged 36-80

16. Differentials in desire for children, partnering, childlessness
Family & Generations Survey 2013
‘Wants no kids’ from sample of childless M&W aged 21-35
Never married/partnered and childless from sample M&W aged 36-80

17. Differentials in desire for children, partnering, childlessness
Family & Generations Survey 2013
‘Wants no kids’ from sample of childless M&W aged 21-35
Never married/partnered and childless from sample M&W aged 36-80

18. Differentials in desire for children, partnering, childlessness
Family & Generations Survey 2013
‘Wants no kids’ from sample of childless M&W aged 21-35
Never married/partnered and childless from sample M&W aged 36-80

19. Proportion childless of those aged 45-54
Women
Born in Switzerland
Secondary educated
Catholic or Protestant
18% childless
Swiss census 2000

20. Proportion childless of those aged 45-54
Women
Born in Switzerland
Secondary educated
Catholic or Protestant
18% childless
Women
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
No religion
44% childless
Swiss census 2000

21. Proportion childless of those aged 45-54
Women
Born in Switzerland
Secondary educated
Catholic or Protestant
18% childless
Women
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
No religion
44% childless
Women
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
No religion
Married
29% childless
Swiss census 2000

22. Proportion childless of those aged 45-54
Women
Born in Switzerland
Secondary educated
Catholic or Protestant
18% childless
Men
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
Catholic or Protestant
17% childless
Women
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
No religion
44% childless
Women
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
No religion
Married
29% childless
Swiss census 2000

23. Proportion childless of those aged 45-54
Women
Born in Switzerland
Secondary educated
Catholic or Protestant
18% childless
Men
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
Catholic or Protestant
17% childless
Women
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
No religion
44% childless
Men
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
No religion
32% childless
Women
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
No religion
Married
29% childless
Swiss census 2000

24. Proportion childless of those aged 45-54
Women
Born in Switzerland
Secondary educated
Catholic or Protestant
18% childless
Men
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
Catholic or Protestant
17% childless
Women
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
No religion
44% childless
Men
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
No religion
32% childless
Women
Born in Switzerland
Tertiary educated
No religion
Married
29% childless
Men and women
Muslim
5% childless
Swiss census 2000

25. Structure of presentation
Switzerland compared to other western European countries
Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials
Who are the religious ‘nones’?
Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness
Different expectations by religiosity
Who succeeds in having a child they say they want?
Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia
Outstanding questions

26. Different expectations and worries of religious and nones
Ability to do what you want day-to-day
Professional life
Financial situation
Friends’ opinions of you
Joy and satisfaction with life
Closeness to your partner
Closeness to your parents
Sex life
Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?...
Much better
Better
Neither better nor worse
Worse
Much worse
Family & Generations Survey 2013

27. Different expectations and worries of religious and nones
Ability to do what you want day-to-day
Professional life
Financial situation
Friends’ opinions of you
Joy and satisfaction with life
Closeness to your partner
Closeness to your parents
Sex life
Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?...
Much better
Better
Neither better nor worse
Worse
Much worse
Family & Generations Survey 2013

28. Different expectations and worries of religious and nones
Ability to do what you want day-to-day
Professional life
Financial situation
Friends’ opinions of you
Joy and satisfaction with life
Closeness to your partner
Closeness to your parents
Sex life
Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?...
Much better
Better
Neither better nor worse
Worse
Much worse
Family & Generations Survey 2013

29. Different expectations and worries of religious and nones
Ability to do what you want day-to-day
Professional life
Financial situation
Friends’ opinions of you
Joy and satisfaction with life
Closeness to your partner
Closeness to your parents
Sex life
Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?...
Much better
Better
Neither better nor worse
Worse
Much worse
Family & Generations Survey 2013

30. Relative likelihood of expecting greater life satisfaction
Binary logistic regression with control variables + * ** *
Childless from sample of M&W aged 22-35
Those with 1 or 2 children from sample M&W aged 22-43
Family & Generations Survey 2013

31. Relative likelihood of expecting greater life satisfaction
Binary logistic regression with control variables + * ** *
Childless from sample of M&W aged 22-35
Those with 1 or 2 children from sample M&W aged 22-43
Family & Generations Survey 2013

32. Relative likelihood of expecting greater life satisfaction
Binary logistic regression with control variables + * ** *
Childless from sample of M&W aged 22-35
Those with 1 or 2 children from sample M&W aged 22-43
Family & Generations Survey 2013

33. Relative likelihood of expecting greater life satisfaction
Binary logistic regression with control variables + * ** *
Childless from sample of M&W aged 22-35
Those with 1 or 2 children from sample M&W aged 22-43
Family & Generations Survey 2013

34. Different expectations and worries of religious and nones
Ability to do what you want day-to-day
Professional life
Financial situation
Friends’ opinions of you
Joy and satisfaction with life
Closeness to your partner
Closeness to your parents
Sex life
Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?...
Much better
Better
Neither better nor worse
Worse
Much worse
Family & Generations Survey 2013

35. If have a child then relative likelihood of anticipating…+ + **
If have a child then relative likelihood of anticipating… +
Much worse financial situation

36. Different expectations and worries of religious and nones
Ability to do what you want day-to-day
Professional life
Financial situation
Friends’ opinions of you
Joy and satisfaction with life
Closeness to your partner
Closeness to your parents
Sex life
Imagine you have a(nother) child in the next 3 years (even if you can’t have or don’t want one). What effect would it have on different aspects of your life?...
Much better
Better
Neither better nor worse
Worse
Much worse
Family & Generations Survey 2013

37. If have a child then relative likelihood of anticipating…
Worse or much worse sex life ** * +

38. If have a child then relative likelihood of anticipating…+ + **
If have a child then relative likelihood of anticipating…
Worse or much worse sex life
Much worse financial situation ** * +
The nones (men and women) are also pretty worried about their professional life…

39. Structure of presentation
Switzerland compared to other western European countries
Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials
Who are the religious ‘nones’?
Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness
Different expectations by religiosity
Who succeeds in having a child they say they want?
Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia
Outstanding questions

40. Even though they may not have positive expectations
>85% of the ‘nones’ still say they would like to have children…
Do they have them?
Using panel data we find….

41. Who fails to have the children they say they wanted?
% M&W aged 21+ who wanted at least 1 child in but were still childless in
Religious attendance frequency in 2002 and 2012
Swiss Household Panel 2002, 2012, 2013, 2014

42. Who fails to have the children they say they wanted?
% M&W aged 21+ who wanted at least 1 child in but were still childless in
Religious attendance frequency in 2002 and 2012
Swiss Household Panel 2002, 2012, 2013, 2014

43. Structure of presentation
Switzerland compared to other western European countries
Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials
Who are the religious ‘nones’?
Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness
Different expectations by religiosity
Who succeeds in having a child they say they want?
Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia
Outstanding questions

44. Religious attendance frequency by age group in Georgia
Generations & Gender Survey 2006

45. Religiosity by educational level – Georgia Men & women aged 25-40
Generations & Gender Survey 2006

46. Fertility of women aged 38-49 in Georgia by religiosity
Number/children
% childless
Regular
1.6
19%
Occasional
15%
Never
1.9
11%
Generations & Gender Survey 2006

47. Expectation of greater life satisfaction if have a child Childless men & women aged 21/18-35
Swiss Family & Generations Survey 2013/ Georgia Generations & Gender Survey 2006

48. Expectation of being much worse financially if have a child Childless men & women aged 21/18-35
Swiss Family & Generations Survey 2013/ Georgia Generations & Gender Survey 2006

49. Expectation of worse sex life if have a child Childless men & women aged 21/18-35
Swiss Family & Generations Survey 2013/ Georgia Generations & Gender Survey 2006

50. Structure of presentation
Switzerland compared to other western European countries
Swiss context, trends and fertility differentials
Who are the religious ‘nones’?
Differential fertility desires, singleness and childlessness
Different expectations by religiosity
Who succeeds in having a child they say they want?
Comparison with a country with a very different context: Georgia
Outstanding questions

51. Outstanding questions
Why are the differentials between the religious and the ‘nones’ bigger in Switzerland than in other (similar) countries?
Does the state family support better match the choices of the religious than the ‘nones’?
Does having children make one more religious?
Does failing to partner (and so have children) make one more likely to stop attending church?
Partner (in)stability, residential mobility or social/support network: which explain the differentials between the religious and the nones?
Do the life priorities of the nones impose barriers to having a family?
Are certain personality attributes associated with religiosity and likelihood of having children?

52. Outstanding questions
Why are the differentials between the religious and the ‘nones’ bigger in Switzerland than in other (similar) countries?
Does the state family support better match the choices of the religious than the ‘nones’?
Does having children make one more religious?
Does failing to partner (and so have children) make one more likely to stop attending church?
Partner (in)stability, residential mobility or social/support network: which explain the differentials between the religious and the nones?
Do the life priorities of the nones impose barriers to having a family?
Are certain personality attributes associated with religiosity and likelihood of having children?

53. Outstanding questions
Why are the differentials between the religious and the ‘nones’ bigger in Switzerland than in other (similar) countries?
Does the state family support better match the choices of the religious than the ‘nones’?
Does having children make one more religious?
Does failing to partner (and so have children) make one more likely to stop attending church?
Partner (in)stability, residential mobility or social/support network: which explain the differentials between the religious and the nones?
Do the life priorities of the nones impose barriers to having a family?
Are certain personality attributes associated with religiosity and likelihood of having children?

54. Outstanding questions
Why are the differentials between the religious and the ‘nones’ bigger in Switzerland than in other (similar) countries?
Does the state family support better match the choices of the religious than the ‘nones’?
Does having children make one more religious?
Does failing to partner (and so have children) make one more likely to stop attending church?
Partner (in)stability, residential mobility or social/support network: which explain the differentials between the religious and the nones?
Do the life priorities of the nones impose barriers to having a family?
Are certain personality attributes associated with religiosity and likelihood of having children?

55. Outstanding questions
Why are the differentials between the religious and the ‘nones’ bigger in Switzerland than in other (similar) countries?
Does the state family support better match the choices of the religious than the ‘nones’?
Does having children make one more religious?
Does failing to partner (and so have children) make one more likely to stop attending church?
Partner (in)stability, residential mobility or social/support network: which explain the differentials between the religious and the nones?
Do the life priorities of the nones impose barriers to having a family?
Are certain personality attributes associated with religiosity and likelihood of having children?

56. So why such a big difference in family size between the religious and the non-religious (in Switzerland)…. ?????
The way forward…
We do have many good data sources:
Family & Generations Survey / Generations & Gender Survey
Swiss Household Panel
European Social Survey
European Values Survey
World Values Survey
Swiss census 2000 (included children born and religion)
Or design some good qualitative research to answer “Why?”
Just need to frame the questions and do some research….

57. Thank you!

58. Childfree?
Or happy family?