1. CareerSource Florida Economic Outlook
PFM Monthly Update: September 2016

2. Introduction Economic conditions affect your ability to succeed.
Is it possible to see these economic conditions coming?
Yes, sometimes…

3. Leading Indicators
We would like to know in advance changes in the economic conditions that affect your ability to succeed.
Some economic indicators suggest when a recession is coming.

4. Recent Recessions

5. Recent Recessions

6. Why?
Bond yields reflect investor expectations of the future of the economy.
Negative outlook -> downward sloping
Long-term debt is desirable, investors hiding from impending market swing.

7. Today
Federal Reserve influences bond yields in attempt to stimulate economy.
Interest rates no longer reflect investor beliefs about market health.
How do we predict recessions?

8. Florida Indicators

9. Other Florida Indicators?

10. Why should you care?
This affects labor force composition (Construction in local board 24)
Increase in SNAP rolls following the recession
Note that these numbers will also affect WIOA performance indicator targets

11. What can we do? Data Sources Moody’s analytics county-level forecasts
EMSI: county-level employment and wages by industry and occupation
REMI: economic impact
Market Intelligence Portal: supply/demand gap analyses

12. Moving Forward
What can we do to help you come to grips with economic conditions?
Potential topics:
Labor force participation?
Migration patterns?
Gap analyses?
Generational poverty/fiscal cliffs?

13. We are happy to answer questions.
Thank You!
We are happy to answer questions.
We value your feedback.
Rob White
(850)