1. Risk Model Crude Oil Pipeline Transportation Risk Analysis
Jeff LaHucik
Rail Transportation and Engineering Center – RailTEC
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, U.S.A.

2. Crude Oil Pipeline Incident Event Tree
Remote
Rural
Suburban
0-1
1-5
Urban
5-50
High
Extremely High
Yes
50-100 No
> 1000
Incident-Caused Release
Release Size
(Barrels)
Population Density
(people/square mile)
Release Probability
Release Consequences

3. Societal Risk Definition: Segment Risk

4. Segment Risk Cont. segment 1 segment 2 ….. segment n Origin
Destination

5. Societal Risk Definition: Route Risk

6. Route Risk Cont.
segment 1
segment 2
…..
segment n
Origin
Destination

7. Historical Data Analysis: Probability of an Incident

8. Consequence Analysis Environmental, property damage, and cleanup costs
Population
Density
Release
Quantity
Environmental, property damage, and cleanup costs
Population density influences persons affected
Release quantity determines severity of incident
Weather conditions can increase or decrease exposure area
Highly variable conditions
Weather
Costs
Consequences

9. Consequence Modeling

10. Route Information: ArcGIS
An overlay of population density and pipeline route was obtained using ESRI 2010 census tract data and ArcGIS.
Pipeline route was identified.
A buffer, equal to the average exposure radius, was created.
Average population density in the buffer area was calculated for each segment.

11. Risk Calculation
Given the length and population density of each segment, segment risk and route risk are returned.
Risk was defined in two ways: cost in $ and persons affected per barrel transported.
Distributions calculated: population density, segment risk ($), and segment risk (persons affected per barrel).
Total risk is presented in two forms: route risk and the sum of segment risk.
A graph of segment risk ($) versus cumulative miles is used to identify the most risky portions of the route.

12. Risk Results: ArcGIS
Segment risk results are exported from Excel and imported to ArcGIS.
Risk results are joined with the pipeline route via segment number.
Risk is displayed using a sliding color scale.

13. Risk Model: Interactive Framework
The risk model can be operated in two ways: as a predictor of risk or as a tool to play out release scenarios.
The predictor of risk option uses an average (weighted) value of release size obtained from historical data analysis in order to calculate risk.
The model can also be used to observe risk distributions for various release sizes.

14. Acknowledgements
The development of this presentation is partially supported by the following organizations. The opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent the views of these organizations.
National University Rail (NURail) Center U.S. DOT RITA University Transportation Center

15. Copyright Restrictions and Disclaimer
Presentation Author
Jeff LaHucik
Undergraduate Research Assistant
Rail Transportation & Engineering Center
Civil & Environmental Engineering Department
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
B118 Newmark Civil Engineering Lab, MC-250
205 N. Mathews Ave.
Urbana, IL
It is the author’s intention that the information contained in this file be used for non-commercial, educational purposes with as few restrictions as possible. However, there are some necessary constraints on its use as described below.
Copyright Restrictions and Disclaimer:
The materials used in this file have come from a variety of sources and have been assembled here for personal use by the author for educational purposes. The copyright for some of the images and graphics used in this presentation may be held by others. Users may not change or delete any author attribution, copyright notice, trademark or other legend. Users of this material may not further reproduce this material without permission from the copyright owner. It is the responsibility of the user to obtain such permissions as necessary. You may not, without prior consent from the copyright owner, modify, copy, publish, display, transmit, adapt or in any way exploit the content of this file. Additional restrictions may apply to specific images or graphics as indicated herein.
The contents of this file are provided on an "as is" basis and without warranties of any kind, either express or implied. The author makes no warranties or representations, including any warranties of title, noninfringement of copyright or other rights, nor does the author make any warranties or representation regarding the correctness, accuracy or reliability of the content or other material in the file.