2. “One must establish what the limits of scientific fact really are
“One must establish what the limits of scientific fact really are This often requires the kind of selfless honesty which a scientist with a position or status to maintain finds hard to exercise.” (1972)
“Scientific doomsday is less than a century distant.” (1963)
Derek J. de Solla Price
Roots of Crisis

3. HYPER-COMPETITION, QUALITY DILUTION
Doubling time: 24 years
1.8 million scientific publications per year
Bornmann, Lutz, and Ruediger Mutz. 2014

4. “One must establish what the limits of scientific fact really are
“One must establish what the limits of scientific fact really are This often requires the kind of selfless honesty which a scientist with a position or status to maintain finds hard to exercise.” (1972)
“Scientific doomsday is less than a century distant.” (1963)
Derek J. de Solla Price
Roots of Crisis

5. THE RISE OF TRANS-SCIENCE
contingent
knowledge
Increasing heterogeneity
science/general knowledge

6. 1. Crisis in quality Source: PLOS Medicine, Aug. 05
Source: Nature, March 2012
Source: PNAS, 2013

7. Success rates for new drug approval, 2003-2011
2. Crisis of Public Value
Erooms Law?
Success rates for new drug approval,
Hay et al., 2014, Nature Biotechnology

8. 3. Crisis of Politicization

9. A Verdict
The case against science is straightforward: much of the scientific literature, perhaps half, may simply be untrue.
--Richard Horton, The Lancet, April 2015

10. The Lie We Still Love . . .
“Scientific progress on a broad front results from the free play of free intellects, working on subjects of their own choice, in the manner dictated by their curiosity for exploration of the unknown basic research is the pacemaker of technological progress.”

11. . . . and why we love it. ENIAC Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker
NAVSTAR 1 GPS 1978

12. What really happened. ENIAC Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker
NAVSTAR 1 GPS 1978

13. TOP 10 REASONS TO STOP WORRYING AND LEARN TO LOVE THE MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX INNOVATION ECOSYSTEM
10. Huge R&D capacity
9. Strong and enduring ties to academia
8. Diversity of roles and approaches
7. Unique role and scale as test bed
6. Long-term commitment to performance
improvement
5. High price point for new technologies
4. Strong and enduring ties to firms
3. Rich and discerning end-user
2. Trillions invested over decades
1. Public consensus on nat’l security mission

14. Science Done Right
Science Done Right
Only through direct engagement with the real world can science free itself to rediscover the path toward truth.
Understanding Human Cognition