1. Impact of Data Releases
Released: 12:00 GMT, 14th November, 2016
Next release: 12:00 GMT, 14th December, 2016
Japan’s economic growth deceleration continues
The Japan NCI™ is at for November, compared to in October, and is forecast at for December, suggesting that the deceleration begun last month is continuing
The level of the NCI™ series has been revised downward to reflect negative surprises in the data flow, particularly in Capacity Utilization for September
NCI™ Release Dates
reference period
17/10/2016
14/11/2016
Oct-16
114.83
(A)
113.02
(U)
Nov-16
113.61
(F)
110.22
Dec-16 --
109.44
Notes: (A), ACTUAL, denotes the estimate of economic activity for the current month; (F), FORECAST, the forecast for next month; (U) UPDATED, denotes updates reflecting data released since the last NCI publication date. Source: Now-Casting Economics Ltd
Impact of Data Releases
Release
Reference
Model
Japan NCITM
Date
Name
Period
Unit
Value*
Expectation
October
November
14/11/2016
Capacity Utilisation: Manufacturing
Sep-16
Index
96.70
98.25
-3.87
-1.32
13/11/2016
Gross Domestic Product
Q3'16
QoQ %
0.54
0.35
-0.03
-0.01
11/11/2016
Tertiary Industry Activity Index
MoM %
-0.10
0.09
-0.13
-0.04
10/11/2016
Machinery Orders
-3.30
1.37
-0.08
09/11/2016
Diffusion Index
Oct-16
46.20
46.05
0.10
0.19
02/11/2016
Consumer Confidence
42.30
86.49
-0.16
-0.33
01/11/2016
PMI: Manufacturing
51.68
51.12
0.66
1.27
31/10/2016
Construction Orders: Housing Units
-33.89
-44.78
0.00
Housing Starts
2.97
0.44
0.05
0.01
Passenger Car Production
-1.93
-1.25
Vehicle Sales
-0.84
-0.31
Industrial Production Excl Construction
0.12
-0.53
28/10/2016
Unemployment
Ten Thousands
202.00
207.89
0.13
0.02
26/10/2016
Small & Medium Enterprises Survey
48.30
48.31
Small & Medium Enterp. Survey: Manuf.
Nov-16
47.20
47.82
-0.89
-1.67
Small & Medium Enterp. Survey: Services
49.50
49.33
0.03
-4.90
-1.99
Note: Released values are expressed in Model Units
Source: Now-Casting Economics Ltd and Official Data Sources