1. Commission for Atmospheric Science World Weather Research Programme
Alexander Baklanov, Scientific Officer, RES, WMO
Sarah Jones, Chair WWRP SSC
Paolo Ruti, Chief WWRD,WMO
I am very glad to present the perspectives and most recent activities of the World Weather Research Programme especially for this meeting … and after the World Weather Open Science Conference…
Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images; Marina Shemesh /publicdomainpictures.net; Alexandros Vlachos/EPA; NOAA NWS; NOAA NWS

2. Societal challenges: a 10y vision
High Impact Weather and its socio-economic effects in the context of global change
Water: Modelling and predicting the water cycle for improved Disaster Risk Reduction and resource management
Urbanization: Research and services for megacities and large urban complexes
Evolving Technologies: Their impact on science and its use
As it has been previously mentioned the Commission for Atmospheric Science has defined key long term societal challenges … here I would highlight again the four societal challenges which WWRP should address through its legacy projects and working groups a programme has been recently launched, HIWeather … in the next few days we will have time to discuss in details… Moving towards 1-km scale forecasting should result in a more accurate rainfall forecast down to small catchments …. 3. …. 75% percent of the population is projected to live in urban regions by 2050 … what is our vision of weather services and what are the main research gaps… 4. …. Are we able to envisage the observational network in a seamless perspective….
Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2 2

3. WWRP overarching goals
Towards Environmental Prediction, integrating modeling components (hydrology, sea-ice, ocean, atmospheric composition, etc.) to better understand coupled processes and to improve forecasting methods.
Towards a seamless predictive capability, developing a unified modeling approach to advance environmental prediction on the weekly to monthly time scale.
Towards impacts forecasting, building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather events, through a better understanding of communication and decision- making processes.
WWRP mission … Towards forecasting the impacts of weather-related hazards: improving prediction, evaluation and communication 3
Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

4. WWOSC 'Seamless Earth System Modelling' Book:

5. WWRP a seamless programme
Nowcasting and Mesoscale
Extremes
Predicting Water Cycle
Urbanization
Emerging Technologies
Tropical Meteorology
Polar Prediction
Sub-seasonal 2 seasonal
High Impact Weather
Predictability Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting
Data Assimilation and Observing Systems
Verification
Social & economics
Challenges Projects Working Groups 5
Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

6. WWRP a seamless programme
Nowcasting and Mesoscale
Extremes
Predicting Water Cycle
Urbanization
Emerging Technologies
Tropical Meteorology
Polar Prediction
Sub-seasonal 2 seasonal
High Impact Weather
Predictability Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting
Data Assimilation and Observing Systems
Verification
Social & economics
Challenges Projects Working Groups 6
Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

7. WWRP a seamless programme
Nowcasting and Mesoscale
Extremes
Predicting Water Cycle
Urbanization
Emerging Technologies
Tropical Meteorology
Polar Prediction
Sub-seasonal 2 seasonal
High Impact Weather
Predictability Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting
Data Assimilation and Observing Systems
Verification
Social & economics
Challenges Projects Working Groups 7
Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

8. Sub-seasonal to seasonal
“Bridging the gap between weather and climate”
Co-chairs: Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF), Andrew Robertson (IRI)
Evaluate potential predictability of sub-seasonal events through a multi-model approach.
Understand systematic errors and biases in the sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast range
Focus on specific extreme event case studies increasing resilience and improving adapting capacity.
Project Office:
KMA/NIMR
Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

9. The Polar Prediction Project
Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal
Chair: Thomas Jung, AWI
Project Office: Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany
Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

10. The Year of Polar Prediction
Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

11. High Impact Weather Project
Increasing resilience to Urban Flood, Wildfire, Urban Heat and Air Pollution in Megacities, Localised extreme wind, Disruptive winter weather through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications
Implementation Plan ( ) approved by WWRP SSC
Links to WCRP through quantifying vulnerability and risk assessment, and for response to High Impact Weather in a changing climate.
Chair: Brian Golding, MetOffice
“Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications”
Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images; Marina Shemesh /publicdomainpictures.net; Alexandros Vlachos/EPA; NOAA NWS; NOAA NWS 11
Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

12. WMO strategy
Disaster  risk reduction: Improve the accuracy and effectiveness of impact-based forecasts and multi-hazard early warnings
Global Framework for Climate Services: Implement climate services under the GFCS particularly for countries that lack them   Sub- seasonal to seasonal
Aviation  meteorological services: to provide sustainable high quality services in support of safety, efficiency and regularity of the air transport worldwide  
Polar and high mountain regions: Improve operational meteorological and hydrological monitoring, prediction and services in polar and high mountain regions 12
Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

13. Key scientific challenges identified by WG/Project
What we expect
Key scientific challenges identified by WG/Project
Key implementation challenges identified by WG/Project
Key needs for international coordination identified by WG/Project
WWRP mission … Towards forecasting the impacts of weather-related hazards: improving prediction, evaluation and communication 13
Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

14. Suggested activities (4-5 priorities) 2 year plan 8 year plan
What we expect
For each CAS challenge
Suggested activities (4-5 priorities)
2 year plan
8 year plan
Links to other projects and WGs
WWRP mission … Towards forecasting the impacts of weather-related hazards: improving prediction, evaluation and communication 14
Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

15. The planning matrix Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 15
WWRP mission … Towards forecasting the impacts of weather-related hazards: improving prediction, evaluation and communication 15
Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

16. WWRP Science Implementation Plan
SSC prepare guidelines to WGs and Projects
Aug15
Materials to WGs and Projects
Sep 15
WGs and Projects elaborate their plan
Sep to Nov 15
Prepare elements for SSC meeting
Nov 15
Implementation Plan Timeline
SSC elaborates implementation plan structure, discuss links with GAW, WCRP and other WMO commissions
Nov 15
Drafting V1.0 and interacting with WGs and Projects if needed
Dec15 to Jan15
Producing V2.0 and asking WMO commissions (not all), YESS community and GAW for feedbacks
Feb15
Final Version
March15

17. Report to SSC: Template.
Objectives (1/2 page, review the main objectives of the WG/ Project/etc)
Key highlights in the last year (1 page, describing the main activities and rationale)
Links to WGs, Projects, International initiatives (1 page, what are the existing links or the ones we need to establish with WWRP WGs/projects, with WMO programmes, and with other no-WMO international initiatives)
Next year planning (1 page, describing the priorities for next year)
Other elements considering the following items (1 page):
Membership (members finishing their mandate)
Fund raising (call for proposal, opportunity for research funding)
Meeting plan table (table summarizing next year meetings, steering group meetings, co-sponsored meetings but also relevant meetings you think a WG/project member should attend)

18. Thank you for your attention
WWRP publications available from:
WWRP contacts:
Staff are thanked for their attention and are invited to ask questions. Other presentations will follow 18

19. 8th Session of the Scientific Steering Committee of WWRP (Geneva, WMO Headquarters, November 2015)

22. WMO Supported Aerosol and Weather Prediction Research
18 UTC, 7 May hr forecast
Forecast Models
NASA A-Train MODIS CALIPSO
&
Geostationary Satellite IR Obs
GAW/AERONET/SKYNET
Surface-based AOD
European PM10
GALION
Surface-based LIDAR

23. EuMetChem WG3: Chemical data assimilation in integrated model
See: eumetchem.info

25. New GAW SAG on NRT Modeling Applications / Chemical Weather Prediction / Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology Modelling
Application Areas:
Chemical weather / air quality forecasting and reanalyses
NWP for precipitation, visibility, thunderstorms, etc.
Sand and Dust Storm Modelling and Warning Systems
Wild fire atmospheric pollution and effects
Volcano ash forecasting, warning and effects
High Impact Weather and Disaster Risk
Chemical data assimilation for air quality and NWP
Weather modification and geo-engineering
Effects of Short-Lived Climate Forcers
Earth System Modelling and Projections

26. Thanks Info and contacts: www.wmo.intwwrp pruti@wmo.int
1. key objectives after the World Open Science Conference, considering the CAS priorities (2-3 slides)
2. New WWRP structure (1 slide)
3. The three legacy projects (1 slide) (Thomas Jung, Frederic Vitart and myself, we will have specific talks)
4. Key priorities for WGNE (6-7 slides)
i. very high resolution forecasting link to Aviation and Lake Victoria RDPs (Paul Joe has a talk on this) and link to the water priority .... towards 1-km scale forecasting resolving the catchment scale
ii. Integrating modeling components (NWP model, chemical models, hydrological models etc ...) to better understand coupled processes and to improve forecasting methods ... the Urban challenge could be an interesting area where WWPR, GAW, WCRP will converge ...
iii. The seamless framework at global scale: how should the work on predictability, dynamics, data assimilation be prioritized to better support S2S and PPP?