Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Regional Skills Assessment 2016
Borders comprising Scottish Borders OK Glasgow

Contents Section 1: Introducing the Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Section 2: National Policy Context Section 3: The National Economic and Skills Context Section 4: The Borders in Context Section 5: Economic Performance of the Borders Section 6: The Borders Business Base Section 7: Where are the jobs in the Borders Section 8: The People of the Borders Section 9: The Borders Labour Market Section 10: Skills Challenges in the Borders Section 11: Schools numbers and destinations in the Borders Section 12: Skills Provision in the Borders Section 13: College Activity Section 14: University Provision Section 15: How are Skills and Jobs Likely to Change? Section 16: What are the key implications for the Region? Glasgow

1. Introducing the RSAs In this section:
What are Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)? What is not covered by the RSAs? Other sources of useful information Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
Regional Skills Assessments provide a coherent evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets Their purpose is to: Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses. Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills. Support wider public and private investment propositions. Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
RSAs are developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. They cover demand for skills, supply of people and skills, skills provision and skills challenges. ….and include employment and GVA forecasts and trends to help identify future skills needs RSA cover: Regional performance and characteristics Trends over time How does the region compare to Scotland High level implications for skills planning Provide a data matrix to allow further analysis RSAs do not: Answer every question... however can be used alongside data matrix and other national and local intelligence Tell partners what they should do – although RSAs are designed to support making better informed decisions Glasgow

RSA data sources and coverage
The Regional Skills Assessments are underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on 117 social and economic indicators With data at 3 spatial levels: Regional Outcome Agreement areas; City Region Deal; Local Authority – with Scotland and GB/UK comparators where available The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). No primary research is involved. The data matrix is found here: The data matrix including a full user guide is available at: do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments Data Matrix sources include: Annual Population Survey Business Register Employment Survey UKCES Employer Skills Survey UK Business Counts Census Data Scottish Government Growth Sector datasets Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Partner data sources include: SDS Participation Measure data SDS Apprenticeship Family data SE and HIE data on Regional Selective Assistance and Account Managed businesses supported SLAED data on major infrastructure projects Glasgow

Other useful sources and publications
Other useful sources of current and forthcoming information are available. Scottish Government Labour Market Strategy Scottish Government Economic Strategy Sectoral and Regional Skills Investment Plans UKCES Employer Survey data Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Reports RBS Business Monitor Markit Economics Purchasing Managers' Index Glasgow

2: National Policy Context
In this section: Government Economic Strategy Labour Market Strategy Youth Employment Strategy Skills Planning Model Scotland’s Skills Agencies Enterprise and Skills Review Glasgow

Economic Strategy (1) Scotland’s Economic Strategy (2015) reaffirms the Scottish Government’s commitment to creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth. It sets out an overarching framework for achieving the two mutually supportive goals of increasing competitiveness and tackling inequality. It forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy and prioritises boosting investment and innovation, supporting inclusive growth and maintaining focus on increasing internationalisation.

Labour Market Strategy (2)
Scotland’s Labour Market Strategy (2016) sets out for the first time how the labour market and wider social and economic policies interact to drive ambitions for inclusive growth. It provides a framework for the approach to the labour market, and describes the actions that will be taken to deliver the vision. Vision: “A strong labour market that drives inclusive, sustainable economic growth, characterised by growing, competitive businesses, high employment, a skilled population capable of meeting the needs of employers, and where fair work is central to improving the lives of individuals and their families.“ Five priorities: promoting the Fair Work Framework and encouraging responsible business; supporting employability and skills, so that all of our people can participate successfully in the labour market; investing in our people and our infrastructure; fostering innovation including workplace innovation which will help spur job creation; and promoting Scotland internationally to improve the competitiveness of our businesses.

Youth Employment (3) Developing the Young Workforce – Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy (2014) sets out how the Scottish Government will implement the recommendations from the Commission for Developing Scotland's Young Workforce, with headline target to reduce youth unemployment by 40% by 2021:

Skills Planning Model (4)
Regional Skills Assessments are at the heart of Scotland’s Skills Planning Model by providing an evidence base to understand demand for skills and to influence planning and investment to meet demand.

Scotland’s Skills Agencies (5)
Skills Development Scotland and the Scottish Funding Council are the two core skills agencies for Scotland. Skills Development Scotland Making Skills Work for Scotland: Employers are better able to recruit the right people with the right skills at the right time Employers have high performing, highly productive, fair and equal workplaces People have the right skills and confidence to secure good work, progress in their careers and achieve their full potential Across all SDS services and programmes, there is increased equality of opportunity SDS is recognised as an employer of choice, an exemplar of fair work, and internationally recognised for excellence, innovation and customer focus Scottish Funding Council, Ambition 2025: Scotland - the Best Place in the World to Learn, to Educate, to Research and to Innovate “Our ambition is that Scotland will be the best place in the world to learn, to educate, to research, and to innovate……with colleges and universities making a major contribution to Scotland’s social, cultural and economic development.” Priority outcomes: High-quality learning and teaching World-leading research Greater innovation in the economy.

Enterprise & Skills Review (6)
Report on Phase One (2016) included a series of recommendations of relevance to skills investment planning “We will align the functions of our skills agencies to better join up how learning and skills are planned and provided to learners and employers.” “We will conduct a comprehensive review of the Learning Journey focused on sustained employment, with significantly enhanced use of labour market information in skills planning at its heart.” “We will review the effectiveness of our investment in learning and skills to ensure we have the right balance of provision across age groups and sectors and maximise its contribution to productivity and inclusive growth.” Next steps; Regional partnerships Digital Enterprise support

3: Scotland’s Economic and Skills Context
In this section: Economic Recession to Recovery Productivity Employment Non Standard Jobs Occupational Change In Work poverty Skills Challenges Scotland’s people Looking to the Future Glasgow

Economic Recession to Recovery (1)
The ‘great recession’ was the longest and deepest recession in the UK since the 1930s both in terms of depth of recession and time to recover GDP. The UK posted the slowest recovery of any advanced economy (aside from Italy and Greece) with recovery only taking hold after pause to fiscal consolidation in 2012 and consumer spending and investment. Scotland’s recession was shallower than the UK. Different sectors had different rates of recovery. Recession and Recovery in Scotland Output Source: Adapted from Fraser of Allander. March 2016 Glasgow

Productivity (2) Productivity in Scotland
Moderated growth in the international economy and Scotland and poor productivity growth presents challenging conditions for many sectors and industries. Productivity in Scotland UK trails G7 advanced economies on productivity by 18 percentage points. Scotland trails UK. UK trails US productivity across all sectors, especially manufacturing. There is evidence that the UK manufacturing productivity in line with France/ Germany. But significant deterioration versus Europe in financial services and private service sector. Productivity improvements have been muted at a Scottish level over the last six years and have fallen behind wages growth. This suggests a weakening of Scotland’s competitive advantage. Fraser of Allander Institute argue that total factor productivity in Scotland is much lower than UK. In the absence of faster Scottish population growth, sustained economic growth will require raising competitiveness. Glasgow

Employment (3) Jobs in Scotland
Total employment in Scotland continued to fall until 2012, but has risen sharply since then. Total employment in was 1.5% greater than in 2009, although this is a slower rate of growth compared to the UK as a whole. Employment across the UK increased by 7% from 2009 to Employment trends show growth in the private sector alongside a fall in public sector employment. Jobs in Scotland Employment Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, Glasgow

Non Standard Jobs (4) The Rise of Non-Standard Work
Although Scotland is experiencing a growth in total employment since pre-recession times, a large part of this is due to the rise of ‘non standard jobs’ – part time, temporary and self employment. Of the new jobs created since the recovery, 50,000+ have been part time jobs, 35,000+ have been self-employed jobs and more than 13,000+ have been temporary jobs. Only 9,000+ or so have been full time jobs. The Rise of Non-Standard Work Employment change in Scotland and the UK, 2008 – 2015 Source: Labour Force Survey Glasgow

Occupational Change (5)
There has been a polarisation of employment by occupation with a strong bias towards higher skilled occupations occurring. In effect, what we are seeing is an hour glass labour market. This represents significant challenges for progression. Occupational Shifts Source: 2011 Census, Labour Force Survey, Oxford Economics Glasgow

In-Work Poverty (6) Low Pay and in-work Poverty
Historically, being in work was seen as a way of escaping poverty, however more recently this is not the case for all. In 2014/15 , 260,000 people or 55% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, before housing costs (BHC). In 2014/15, 350,000 people or 58% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, after housing costs (AHC). In-work poverty can be a particular challenge for some groups – women, younger people, older workers, those with no qualifications, some ethnic groups, lone parents and people with disabilities. Low Pay and in-work Poverty In-work poverty (relative poverty AHC) in Scotland: 1998/99 to 2014/15 Number of individuals in poverty in households with at least one adult in employment Source:HBAI dataset, DWP Glasgow

Skills Challenges (7) Current Skills Challenges in Scotland (From Employer Skills Survey 2015) Steep rise in vacancies from 54,000 (2013) to 74,000 (2015) – reflecting higher demand for labour Proportion of establishments reporting Skills Shortage Vacancies in Scotland rose from 3% (2011) to 4% (2013) and 6% (2015) – in line with UK trends Proportion of establishments reporting skills gaps fell to 14% (2015) – same as at UK level Increasing levels of under-employment and under-utilisation of skills – 32% of establishments reported at least one member of staff with both skills and qualifications above the level required for the job Skills shortages and recruitment difficulties are likely to be a permanent feature of the Scottish labour market, particularly where experienced labour is required Along with under-employment and under-utilisation of skills, this will make improving productivity a challenging task Glasgow

Scotland’s People (8) People and Demographics
There have been strong population increases in Scotland, driven by in migration. The population is, however, an ageing one, with changing age demographics. This means there is considerable competition for young people. The majority of people in the workforce over the next 10 years are already working. People and Demographics Source: Mid Year Population Estimates Glasgow

The Future - Scotland’s People (9.1)
Over the period , the population of Scotland is forecast to grow by 9% to reach just under 5.8 million by The ageing of the population is forecast to continue, with the highest percentage of growth forecast in those age groups and 75+. Population Projections Source: General Register Office for Scotland Glasgow

The Future – GVA (9.2) Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland
GVA for Scotland is forecast to steadily increase over the period Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland Source: ONS, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment (9.3)
Although employment is forecast to contract between , there will be growth from In 2024, this would be equivalent to just under 47,500 additional jobs in the economy compared to 2015 levels. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment by Industry (9.4)
Not all industrial sectors will fare the same in terms of employment growth. It is forecast that there will be growth in Construction, Professional, scientific and technical activities and Administrative and Support Services whereas there will be a major decline in Manufacturing, Mining and Quarrying and Public sector jobs. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Total Jobs Requirement (9.5)
Although understanding growth is important, a crucial part of skills planning is being able to understand the likely jobs that will arise as a result of both expansion demand (growth/contraction) and also replacement demand (churn in the labour market). Total jobs forecast to be filled in the period is 980,600 with most of these arising due to replacement demand and a very small proportion (c.26.5k) arising from growth. Looking Forward – Total Jobs requirement Total jobs requirement from Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Qualifications (9.6)
Based on the total jobs requirement for , the forecast for qualifications required shows that the vast majority of requirement is for people qualified at higher level - SCQF7 and above. Only a small proportion of opportunities will be available for people with no-low qualifications. Looking Forward - Qualifications Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

4. Borders in Context In this section:
The context within which a region operates plays a huge part in explaining a region’s performance. Historical factors, the composition of the industrial sector, geographic location, image and demographics are all at play. It is important to provide the regional context before presenting demand and skills supply data. In this section: Borders contribution to Scotland’s economy Key sectoral characteristics Key labour market performance Deprivation and living standards Earnings and Commuting Patterns Glasgow

Borders Region in Context (1)
The Borders region is a largely rural economy which generates 1.6% of the total output of Scotland as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services produced. The region’s proportion of the Scotland total has remained constant over the last 10 years. Total GVA generated in the Borders region fell between 2007 and 2009 as a result of the recession, but has since recovered. The increase between 2013 and 2014 has taken GVA back to above the 2007 peak. Borders Region’s Contribution to Scotland’s Economy Total GVA in the region and the region’s share of total Scotland GVA Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The service sector dominates the Borders regional output, including health, real estate and retail, all of which generate a higher proportion of total output regionally than they do nationally. Manufacturing remains a feature of the Borders economy, equating to 12% of all output, as does agriculture, forestry and fishing (6%). For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. The Industrial Structure of the Borders Region (GVA by sector) 2014 There is evidence of further transition from a traditional economy based on agriculture and manufacturing to a more knowledge-based economy. For example, the professional, scientific and technical service sector now equates to the same proportion of total output (6%) as it does for Scotland. Total GVA (£m) at 2013 prices Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Glasgow

There were 41,900 people employed in the Borders in 2015, 700 fewer than in These are people employed in VAT or PAYE-registered businesses and so excludes those who are self-employed and work for smaller firms. Total employment had been increased over the period 2012 to 2014 at above the Scotland rate of growth, but the job losses between 2014 and 2015 illustrate the fragility of the region’s recovery. See Section 7 on Where are the Jobs and Section 9 on the Labour Market. Key Labour Market Performance Employment change Borders region, Scotland and Great Britain Source: Business Register Employment Survey Glasgow

The Borders has a higher proportion of households with incomes of between £20,000 and £40,000 per annum, although it has a lower proportion of high earning households above £40,000. Households in the region are relatively more affluent than the Scottish average, although many of these are retirees or those who commute out of the region north to Edinburgh or to the North-East of England. Jobs in the area are less well paid than average, meaning a number of households have an income below the national average. Deprivation and Living Standards Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Source: Scottish Household Survey Glasgow

The Borders region is comprised of the single local authority, Scottish Borders. Just over 20% of all of those in employment work outside the region, predominantly in Edinburgh. The Borders railway is likely to have increased the numbers commuting to Edinburgh further since the 2011 Census data was gathered. More information is at Section 8: The People of the Borders region. Commuting Flows More than 8,500 were commuting to work outside of the region at the time of the 2011 Census. Source: 2011 Census Glasgow

5. Borders: Economic Performance
The economic performance of the region is a critical driver of the demand for skills. Successful businesses need high levels of productivity, with skills an important component of this, although not the only one, particularly as business processes become more mechanised. Economic performance is measured using Gross Value Added per worker , which is the best available measure of productivity. In this section: Total GVA and GVA growth rates GVA per employee (productivity) GVA per employee by sector Forecast GVA growth Glasgow

Economic Performance (1)
Total GVA in the Borders region has generally been increasing since 2009 following a sharp slowdown and contraction of output in the recession. Following a surprise fall in output in 2012, GVA has increased strongly in the region in and The rate of GVA growth was 4.9% 2013 to 2014, following strong growth of 4.6% between 2012 and 2013, both above the Scottish rate of increase. Employment contraction in 2015 may however lead to a fall in output when the 2015 data is released. Total GVA in the Borders Region ( ) Source: Oxford Economics Total GVA £m at 2013 prices 2004 £18,850 6.3% 4.1% 2005 £20,035 -0.7% 3.7% 2006 £19,897 -0.4% 1.7% 2007 £19,824 1.3% 2008 £20,075 -2.0% -3.6% 2009 £19,676 -4.3% 2010 £18,837 2.0% 1.8% 2011 £19,208 -0.6% -0.2% 2012 £19,097 2.9% 2.6% 2013 £19,647 6.4% 4.3% 2014 £20,914 3.5% 2.8% Glasgow

GVA per worker is a proxy measure for productivity. It describes the region’s output in relation to the numbers in employment. Again this is heavily influenced by the sector composition of the regional economy. Sectors such as professional, scientific and technical sector services for example are typically more productive than retail, tourism and agriculture, where the Borders is over-represented. The GVA per worker has been rising in the Borders region since 2011, albeit modestly and the level remains well below the Scotland average. GVA Per Employee (Productivity) Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

GVA output is forecast to grow in the Borders region, but at a rate slower than the Scotland average. Growth of 12.9% is forecast 2015 to 2024, compared to 15.9% for Scotland. GVA is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 1.4% between 2015 and 2024, 0.3 percentage points below the Scottish average of 1.7%. Uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to leave the EU has dampened near-term growth prospects. GVA Output Growth to 2024 Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The sectors which currently comprise the greaterst share of GVA are expected to continue to grow, including human health and social work, retail and real estate activities. Sectorally, around 74% of GVA growth in the Borders will be provided by private services, which includes strong forecast growth in professional, scientific and technical support services which are forecast to grow fastest at 3.2% per annum. Information and communications is also expected to grow strongly, 3.0% per year, although from a low base. Forecast Output Growth by Sector Glasgow

6. Borders: Business Base
The business base of the region is a strong determinant of the economic performance described in the previous section. Successful businesses need skilled and effective employees. This section presents an analysis of the business base by its industrial sector composition and other characteristics. In this section: Total number of businesses and growth rates Business base by sector Growth sector businesses Business base by size Business density Business birth, death and survival rates Self employment Glasgow

Business Base (1) There were 5,025 VAT and PAYE registered businesses in the Borders region in The region’s business base has grown since 2013 and there was a 5.24% increase in business numbers between 2014 and At the same time, the increase in business numbers has lagged behind the Scotland rate since 2011. Total Number of Businesses and Growth Rates Number of businesses by year from 2010 – and growth rate comparators Source: UK Business Counts Change in number of business Glasgow

Business Base (2) Business Base by Sector, 2015
Almost one in four businesses in the Borders Region (24%) are in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, and the vast majority of these are self-employed individuals. The professional, scientific and technical sector is growing and there are now 560 businesses in the region, although at 11% this is a lower proportion than the 18% nationally. The remainder of business sector representation is close to the profile across Scotland. Business Base by Sector, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (3) Growth Sectors
The Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy identifies six growth sectors, detailed below, where Scotland has a distinct comparative advantage. A greater proportion of the Borders’ growth sector businesses are in food and drink (48% versus 23%), with a lower proportion than average in the other growth sectors, notably financial and business services (21% compared to 36% nationally). Growth Sectors Number of businesses by growth sector 2015 Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Glasgow

Business Base (4) Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013
Although a smaller sector than in many other regions, the financial and business services growth sector still comprises over a third of growth sector GVA in the Borders. Sustainable tourism and the creative industries are the next biggest contributors. Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013 Source: Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Total GVA (£m) at basic prices of Scottish Government Growth Sectors by sector, 2013 Some figures are supressed due to data being disclosive Growth sector total GVA as a % of all growth sector GVA, 2013 Glasgow

Business Base (5) Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015
The Borders has a small number of large employers, with 10 firms and organisations employing more than 250 employees. As with the Scotland and UK, the vast majority of businesses are micro-enterprises with fewer than 10 employees, although the Borders has a higher proportion employing between 10 and 49 than Scotland and the UK. Business density in the Borders is 441 per 10,000 compared to 313 per 10,000 in Scotland, reflecting the large numbers self-employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing. Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015 Number of businesses by employee size band and by proportion of all businesses, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (6) Business survival rates in the Borders are close to the Scotland and Great Britain average. In all, 47.6% of businesses starting in 2010 had survived until 2014, compared to 48.3% in Scotland and 48.1% in Great Britain. Business births increased in 2013 and 2014 to close to the Scotland average, although the start-up rate in Scotland lagged behind the rate across Great Britain as a whole. Business Birth and Death Rates ( ) and Survival Rates ( ) Charts from matrix Note: A business is deemed to have survived if still active 5 years after birth. Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-year Population Estimates Glasgow

Business Base (7) Self-Employment
Self-employment rates in the Borders continue to be well above the Scotland average, given the large agriculture, forestry and fishing sector. Rates have dropped slightly from the 2012 peak. Sectors such as construction, which is well represented in the Borders business base, also have high numbers who are self-employed. Self-Employment Source: Annual Population Survey – Jan-Dec each year Glasgow

7. Borders: Where are the Jobs?
Analysing the employment base of the region provides important information on the nature and functioning of the labour market. There have been significant occupational shifts in Scotland, reflected in changes in the Borders, where higher skilled occupation employment continues to increase. There has been jobs recovery since the recession, but not all of these have been good quality jobs. In this section: Total employment and rate of change Employment by sector and change over time Sectoral specialism Employment by occupation and change Non standard jobs – part time and non permanent Resident and workplace earnings Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (1) Total Employment and Change 2009-2015
In 2015, there were 41,900 people employed in the Borders region. These are jobs in VAT and PAYE registered businesses saw a decrease of 700 jobs from 2014, a 1.6% fall, when job numbers remained even across Scotland. This indicates the challenge the Borders faces in creating and sustaining jobs in the area. Total Employment and Change Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (2) Employment by sector provides important information on the industrial composition of the regional economy. Employment in the health sector comprises the largest share of employment in the Borders, above the Scotland average. Production remains important to the Borders region, accounting for 14% of all employment, a higher proportion than Scotland and Great Britain. Tourism-related employment is also well represented in the region with 3,400 employed in accommodation and food services, 8% of the total. Employment by Sector and Proportion of Total Employment 2014 The Borders has a lower proportion of employment in information and communications (1%) than Scotland (2%). Sectors such as this and the professional, scientific and technical sector (where the 5% of all jobs regionally are in this sector, below the Scotland average) are typically higher value added and higher paid service sector jobs. Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (3) Sector Specialisms
Marrying employment growth trends by sector with the size and concentration of the sector in a region can provide important information on the dynamics of the labour market. Concentration of a sector is the extent to which employment in the sector is above (or below) sector concentration at the Scotland level. Sector Specialisms Sectors above the horizontal line are more concentrated in the region than in Scotland, those below the line less so. Sectors to the right of the vertical line are larger in employment terms than five years ago, to the left less so. Larger bubbles reflect higher sector employment. Although small sectors regionally, public admin and defence and arts, entertainment and recreation have grown in size in the last five years. The region has a specialism in motor trades, positively, this has grown from 2009 to 2015. Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (4) Employment by Occupation (2015)
The occupational profile of the region is important because occupation is often linked to skills requirements. There has been a steady and continuing shift to more professional occupations. Almost one in five (18%) of those in work and living in the Borders are now employed in professional occupations, although this includes those who commute to Edinburgh, with the proportion of local jobs in professional occupations lower. Skilled trades comprise 15% of all jobs by occupation and these will be largely local jobs, linked to manufacturing and construction in particular. Employment by Occupation (2015) Change over time Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (5) Part Time Employment 2005-2015
Just over a quarter (26%) of those in employment work part-time and this is largely the same proportion as Scotland and Great Britain. More of the jobs created in the economic recovery have been part time jobs. There are also 6.7% in non-permanent employment, a higher percentage than nationally (5.4%). Nationally, 2.2% are employed on zero hours contracts. Part Time Employment Non-Permanent Employment, Source: Annual Population Survey Non-permanent employment is the proportion of all of those of working age in employment types such as fixed- term contracts, temporary agency, casual or seasonal work. The increase in non-permanent employment reflects the changing nature of employment. Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (6) Some sectors are typically better paid than others, and the industrial base of the region is often an indicator of average wage levels. The composition of the industrial base within a region also affects workplace pay levels. Average gross weekly workplace earnings in the Borders are £418, lower than the Scotland average of £492. Residence-based earnings are higher, at £469 per week, close to the Scotland average, indicating that those working outside the region are in better paid employment than those working in the region. Average Weekly Workplace and Residence-based Earnings, 2015 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Glasgow

8. Borders: Its People In this section: Population growth
The demographic characteristics of a region are extremely important in determining current and future demand for skills. The age profile of the population, the number of young people and elderly, the increasing proportion of retirees, are all contributory factors. The movement of people within a region, and into and out of a region, also affect the labour market and the supply of skills available to employers. In this section: Population growth Population profile Population projections Net migration Travel to work data Glasgow

People (1) Population Change Over Time
The Scottish Borders population has grown slower than the Scotland average over the 10 years 2005 to 2015, with both lagging behind the rate of growth in Great Britain of 7.8%. The population of the Scottish Borders remained relatively stable in the last year ( ), compared to +0.5% growth in Scotland. Population Change Over Time Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Year Scottish Borders Scotland 2005 110,250 5,110,200 2006 110,860 5,133,100 2007 112,200 5,170,000 2008 113,360 5,202,900 2009 113,590 5,231,900 2010 113,690 5,262,200 2011 113,880 5,299,900 2012 113,720 5,313,600 2013 5,327,700 2014 114,040 5,347,600 2015 114,030 5,373,000 Change 3,780 262,800 % Change 3% 5% Glasgow

People (2) Age Profile of the Region
The Borders has an older age profile than the Scotland as a whole. This is driven by growth of the 65+ age band since 2005 (+25%, 5,300) compared to Scotland ( +18%). The Borders has also had a greater decline in the age band than Scotland (-26% versus -16%.). Overall, the working age population of the region decreased by 3,600 over the 10 years to 2015. Age Profile of the Region Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Glasgow

People (3) Population Projections (2014-2037)
Source: National Records of Scotland The Borders’ population is projected to remain relatively stable, compared to growth of 8% in Scotland as a whole to 2037 The working age population is also projected to fall much faster compared to the national rate (-20% compared to -4%). Over the longer term, the age structure of the region’s population is projected to become older, with a higher rate of 75+ projected than Scotland Scottish Borders Scotland 2014 113,867 5,346,120 2015 113,986 5,365,420 2016 114,165 5,385,719 2017 114,334 5,406,997 2018 114,497 5,429,012 2019 114,658 5,451,660 2020 114,802 5,474,391 2021 114,937 5,497,079 2022 115,062 5,519,588 2023 115,162 5,541,816 2024 115,240 5,563,670 2025 115,297 5,585,040 2026 115,324 5,605,814 2027 115,337 5,625,892 2028 115,311 5,645,150 2029 115,253 5,663,541 2030 115,161 5,681,121 2031 115,033 5,697,808 2032 114,881 5,713,523 2033 114,710 5,728,318 2034 114,503 5,742,297 2035 114,264 5,755,558 2036 114,005 5,768,217 2037 113,725 5,780,371 Change 81,201 434,251 % Change 0% 8% Glasgow

People (4) Net Migration
There has been overall decrease of net migration into the Borders in recent years. Between 2010/11 and 2011/12, net migration decreased sharply from 488 to 45. By 2014/15 net inwards migration had increased, but not recovered to 2010/11 levels. The age band with the highest net migration in 2014/2015 was (225). On the other hand, the age band, had a net migration of -255 showing more people are leaving the area in this age group which is contributing to the aging of the region’s demographic profile. Net Migration Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (5) Travel to Work (2011 Census)
There are extremely low levels of out-commuting from the Scottish Borders. Of those employed and living in the Borders, 78% work within the region, which reflects the low level of out commuting. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number
People (6) The workplace population of the Borders at the time of the last Census was 34,275, and of these workers, 92% were resident in the region (31,403). A lesser number of the Borders’ workers commuted from elsewhere in Scotland into the region (1,164). By contrast, there were almost 7,000 workers who commuted out of the Borders area to work, many into urban centres such as the City of Edinburgh. Overall, more people living the the Borders commuted out to work than workers from other regions commuted into the region. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Note: Currently not available in the Data Matrix Council area of workplace Total workplace population Lives and works in the area Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number Net flow of workers Works in the area but lives elsewhere in Scotland Works in the area but lives in the rest of UK Lives in the area but works elsewhere in Scotland Lives in the area but works in the rest of the UK Within Scotland From the rest of the UK Total Scottish Borders 34,275 31,403 1,708 1,164 6,927 1,691 -5,219 -527 -5,746 Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

9. Borders Region: Labour Market
The functioning of the labour market is influenced by labour market participation. Those unemployed or economically inactive will not be directly contributing to the economic success of the region, although their situation may be temporary, or indeed those inactive may be learning and studying and be a future contributor to the region. In this section: Age composition of workforce Economic activity Qualifications Participation Unemployment Glasgow

Labour Market (1) Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates
The Scottish Borders economic activity and inactivity rates fluctuated between 2005 and Economic Activity was at its lowest and Inactivity was at its highest in 2010, reaching 75% and 25%, respectively, although this has recovered to 80% and 20% by Scotland’s rates have remained stable throughout, staying at 77-78% and 22-23% respectively. Economic Activity Rates Economic Inactivity Rates Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (2) Qualifications
The highest level qualifications of the resident working age population is a useful barometer of skills attainment levels. There remains a cohort in regional economies with no formal qualifications which used to be associated with older workers. Jobs increasingly require higher levels of qualification, including so-called entry level jobs. There is a slightly lower qualified working age population the Borders with 42% qualified to SCQF Level 7-12, compared to 43% for Scotland. There is however a lower proportion of the working age population with no qualifications, 5% compared to the Scotland average of 9%. Qualifications Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (3) Participation
The Participation Measure is a new measure which enables the status of the wider cohort – not just those who have left school – to be understood. Participation of young people aged in the Borders was higher (91%) than the Scottish rate of 90%. Participation Source: Skills Development Scotland Scottish Borders Scotland Number % Total Cohort (16-19) 4,867 Participating (16-19) 4,448 91% 90% Education 3,630 75% 71% Employment 731 15% 17% Other Training & Development 87 2% Not Participating (16-19) 132 3% 4% Unemployed Seeking 84 Unemployed not Seeking 48 1% Unconfirmed Status (16-19) 287 6% Glasgow

Labour Market (4) The way unemployment is measured is changing due to the introduction of Universal Credit. As such, the data is regarded as ‘experimental’ and care is needed when comparing to previous years of data (all regions have recorded a fall in claimant count unemployment under the new measure). Unemployment – Claimant Count (includes Universal Credit) – experimental measure Source: Job Seekers Allowance Scottish Borders Scotland Great Britain May 2005 120 12,760 115,375 May 2006 13,265 141,970 May 2007 110 12,490 145,310 May 2008 55 7,825 99,735 May 2009 10,320 123,545 May 2010 330 20,870 252,170 May 2011 20,340 203,195 May 2012 485 35,725 378,480 May 2013 530 38,090 410,710 May 2014 445 29,470 310,865 May 2015 320 19,145 197,275 May 2016 225 16,515 158,520 Glasgow

10. Borders: Skills Challenges
Employers can have difficulties accessing the skills they need, skills deficiencies can be amongst those they are seeking to recruit and amongst those in their existing workforce. Skills shortage vacancies (SSVs) relate to the skills shortages amongst those being recruited, and skills gaps are a deficit within the existing workforce. The 2015 UKCES Employer Skills Survey provides timely data in relation to these and other issues. In this section: Skills shortages Skills gaps Recruitment activity Skills under-utilisation Glasgow

Skills Challenges (1) Skills Shortages
The UKCES Employer Skills Survey 2015 indicates that across the Borders skills shortage vacancies were more common than Scotland as a whole, at 1.3% compared to 0.8%. Hard-to-fill vacancies due to skills shortages accounted for 1.4% of the workforce, higher than the 1.1% across the Scottish workforce as a whole. In all, 6% of businesses in the Borders reported at least one hard to fill vacancy, in line with the Scottish average. Skills Shortages Source: UKCES Scottish Borders Scotland Hard to fill vacancies as % of workforce 1.4% 1.1% Skills shortage vacancies as % of workforce 1.3% 0.8% Glasgow

Skills Challenges(2) Skills Gaps
Skills gaps occur when employers think their employees lack some of the skills required to be fully proficient at their job. Around 4% of the workforce in the Borders have skills gaps compared to 5% nationally. Proportionally fewer employers in the Borders reported skills gaps compared to the Scottish average. Skills gaps are most prevalent in skilled trades staff in the Scottish Borders 69% of employers with a skills gaps say there is an impact on the business (70% nationally) Skills Gaps Source: UKCES Glasgow

Skills Challenges (3) Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation
Overall, 47% of Borders’ businesses had recruited staff during the year prior to the 2015 UKCES survey, this was below the national average. The number of vacancies was below the Scottish average with 11% of employers in the Borders having at least one vacancy. In addition, 39% of employers in the region had staff who were under-utilised, which was above than the national average. Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation Source: UKCES Glasgow

11. Borders: Schools Data In this section: School roll numbers
The number of young people at school and projected school roll numbers are important as those at school will form part of the future labour market. The destination of those leaving school also has an impact on the labour market, as young people might enter employment, education and training, or none of these after school. In this section: School roll numbers School roll projections School leaver destinations Glasgow

Schools Data (1) Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group
There were 6,377 secondary school pupils in the Scottish Borders in Of this, there were slightly higher proportions of S3 and S4 (19% v 18%) pupils in the Scottish Borders than Scotland, respectively. There were lower proportions of S2 (17% v. 18%) and S6 (11% v. 12%) pupils in the Scottish Borders than in Scotland, respectively. Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census Scottish Borders Scotland S1 1,147 50,813 S2 1,114 49,514 S3 1,197 50,197 S4 1,185 51,078 S5 1,013 45,817 S6 721 33,936 Total Pupils 6,377 281,355 Glasgow

Schools Data (2) Secondary School Roll Number Projections
Based on the latest available projections (2012), secondary school roll numbers in the Scottish Borders are projected to decrease by 3% to This is compared to a 2% drop in numbers for Scotland during the same period of time. Secondary School Roll Number Projections Source: Scottish Government Pupil Projections Scottish Borders Scotland 2014 6,300 282,800 2015 6,200 278,000 2016 6,100 275,300 2017 275,100 2018 277,900 Glasgow

Schools Data (3) School Leaver Destinations
Between 2013/14 and 2014/15, the Scottish Borders has seen the proportion of school leavers entering a positive destination remain the same, at 94%, and above the Scottish average. There are greater proportions of leavers entering Higher Education in the Borders than Scotland (42% v. 37%) with the proportion of Scottish Borders leavers entering Higher Education increasing by 1 percentage point between 2013/14 and 2014/15. School Leaver Destinations Source: Scottish Government School Leaver Destinations Database 2013/14 2014/15 Scottish Borders Scotland Positive Destination 94% 92% Higher Education 41% 39% 42% 37% Further Education 27% 24% 25% 23% Training 1% 3% 2% Employment 28% Voluntary Work 0% Activity Agreement Unemployed Seeking 5% 7% 4% 6% Unemployed Non-Seeking Unknown Glasgow

12. Borders: Skills Provision
There is a wide variety of skills and learning provision available which is designed to meet the future skills needs of the economy. Amongst this is the provision commissioned by Skills Development Scotland, notably via the Apprenticeship family of products (Modern Apprenticeships, Foundation Apprenticeships and Graduate Level Apprenticeships) and the Employability Fund and delivered by approved training providers including Colleges, Universities and Private training providers. In this section: Modern Apprenticeships by participant characteristic and framework grouping Foundation Apprenticeships Graduate Level Apprenticeships Employability Fund and Certificate of Work Readiness starts Glasgow

Skills Provision (1) MA Total Number of Starts
Modern Apprenticeships (MA) help employers to develop their workforce by training new and existing employees. For individuals, an MA lets them earn a wage while gaining a qualification. MA uptake in the Borders has remained steady over the period 2010/ /16 and in 2015/16 represented 2% of the national uptake. The age breakdown in 2015/16 was different from to the national picture with a greater proportion of age apprentices (40%) than nationally (30%). MA Total Number of Starts MA Starts 2015/16, by Age Glasgow

Skills Provision (2) MA Starts by Gender 2010-2016
The gender split in MA uptake in the Borders is broadly similar to the national picture, with more male MAs than female. More information on gender split in different frameworks can be found in Skills Provision (4). In 2015/16 the uptake of MAs regionally by disabled participants was similar to the national picture, and representation was much less than the 19% of the working age population in Scotland with a disability. MA Starts by Gender MA Starts by Disability Glasgow

Skills Provision (3) MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16
The uptake of MAs in the Borders shows a more diverse ethnic mix than in Scotland overall. There were 2% of participants in the Borders region who came from a Black Minority and Ethnic (BME) background, the same as Scotland as a whole. MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16

Skills Provision (4) The most popular MA Framework Group was Construction & Related (includes trades such as plumbing and joinery) which is also one of the most gender segregated groups with 97% male starts. Other male dominated groups include Automotive (100%), Engineering & Energy related (100%) and Transport and Logistics (100%). Female participation is highest in Sport, Health and Social Care (79%), Administration & Related (69%) and Personal Services (100%). Modern Apprenticeship Starts by Framework Group and Gender Note: figures rounded to the nearest 5, figures less than 5 have suppressed. Percentages have been calculated on unrounded figures. Glasgow

Skills Provision (5) MA Achievement Rates 2010/11- 2015/16
MA achievement rates give the proportion of MA starts who completed their apprenticeship: gaining their target qualification and reaching work-based learning aims. Achievement rates in the Borders have been consistently above the Scottish average. In 2015/16, the MA achievement rate was 79%, three percentage points above the national average (76%). MA Achievement Rates 2010/ /16 Glasgow

Skills Provision (6) Foundation Apprenticeships (FA) were developed to help school pupils gain work experience and access work-based learning. S4 and S5 students spend time at college or with a local employer, and complete the FA alongside other subjects like National 5s and Highers. The qualification takes two years and can lead to employment or further study at college or university. FAs were piloted in some regions in 2014 and participation has grown over the past three years. The data shows uptake from the past two years and anticipated uptake for 2016/18. Foundation Apprenticeships, National Uptake 2014/ /18 Foundation Apprenticeships In 2016/18, the national uptake of FAs is expected to be over 300. In 2016/18 there are eight frameworks available, linked to six key sectors: Business Skills, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Financial Services, IT Hardware, IT Software, Social Services CYP, Social Services & Healthcare SDS aims to make FAs part of every secondary school’s offer by 2020. Glasgow

Skills Provision (7) Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development
Graduate Level Apprenticeships (GLAs) provide work-based learning opportunities up to Master’s degree level for employees. They have been created in partnership with industry and the further and higher education sector. Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development GLAs are currently available in: ICT/Digital: Software Development ICT/Digital: IT Management for Business Engineering: manufacturing and Design Civil Engineering Over the course of 2017 the intention is to expand the offer to include: Business and Management SCQF Level 10 Engineering (Instrumentation, Measurement and Control SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Cyber Security SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Digital Media SCQF Level 10) Life Sciences SCQF Level 10 Children and Young People SCQF Level 8 Glasgow

Skills Provision (8) The Employability Fund (EF) supports locally delivered services designed to encourage unemployed people to move towards work. SDS administers EF on behalf of Scottish Government*. The uptake of EF starts in the Borders represents almost 14% of the total in Scotland. The proportion of uptake from women is lower in the Borders at 33% than in Scotland overall 36%. Employability Fund Starts 2015/16, Total and by Gender *All data provided relates only to SDS funded activity. As other entities administer EF programme the data will not reflect total participation Glasgow

Skills Provision (9) The Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR) addresses the challenge for young people of gaining work experience and workplace skills when entering the labour market. The CWR provides young people with 190 hours of work experience and an assessment from an employer to prove to future employers they have established workplace competencies. In 2015/16, 0.5% of the total Scotland uptake of CWR came from the Borders and 1% of employer involved in the scheme were located in the Borders. Certificate of Work Readiness 2015/16, Starts and Employers Glasgow

13. Borders: College Activity
Colleges provide a range of opportunities for all students, regardless of prior achievement, from access courses to degree level qualifications to meet national, regional and local economic needs. Qualifications include National 4 & 5s, NQ, HNC, HND and Degrees. Colleges also provide qualifications towards Foundation and Modern Apprenticeships. Data in this section relates to enrolments at Borders College and was provided by Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: College activity by age and gender Travel to study: location of students College activity by subject Gaelic language activity College activity: FE/HE Outcomes and destinations Glasgow

College Activity (1) 2015/16 college enrolments
In 2015/16, there were 5,195 enrolments at Borders College, 2% of all enrolments across Scotland. Most enrolments were on part-time courses, similar to the trend nationally. Both regionally and nationally, the 25+ group was the largest overall in terms of enrolments. At Borders College, the 25+ age group accounted for 17% of full-time enrolments and 58% of part-time enrolments. The data suggests that college activity is characterised by older students on part-time courses and younger students on full-time courses. 2015/16 college enrolments 2015/16 college enrolments by age Note: Unless otherwise stated all data is for total college enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (2) 2015/16 college enrolments by gender
Nationally in 2015/16, females (51%) accounted for slightly more enrolments than males (49%). This was also true of Borders College, with a wider gender gap (54% female, 46% male). In terms of home area, the majority of students (90% of enrolments) came from within the Borders. The college attracted the same proportion (1%) of students from elsewhere in the UK as colleges across Scotland as a whole. 2015/16 college enrolments by gender 2015/16 college enrolments by home area Glasgow

College Activity (3) College enrolments by SIMD
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) measure shows that in 2015/16 a lower proportion (4%) of college enrolments at Borders College came from the 10% most deprived areas, compared to Scotland as a whole (15%). However, it should be noted that the SIMD measure does not fully reflect the challenges facing rural communities. Compared to colleges across Scotland, Borders College had proportionally fewer enrolments in Higher Education (HE) (8% vs. 18%) and more in Further Education (FE) (92% vs. 82%). College enrolments by SIMD College enrolments by HE/FE Note: Further Education (FE) refers to courses leading to qualifications up to SCQF level 7. Higher Education (HE) refers to courses at SCQF level 7 and above. Glasgow

College Activity (4) Of the 5,195 enrolments at Borders College in 2015/16, relatively few (7%) were in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects, although the proportion of STEM enrolments in full-time courses was higher than that in part-time courses, 14% and 5% respectively. 12% of male enrolments at the college were for a STEM subject, and 3% of female enrolments, which was below the national average. Road Vehicle Engineering had the greatest number of STEM enrolments accounting for almost one third (31%) of all STEM enrolments. College enrolments - STEM subject and mode of study Ten largest STEM subject areas by total enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (5) Care was the largest subject area in terms of full-time enrolments at Borders College in 2015/16. It was also one of the most gender segregated subjects with females accounting for 91% of those studying the subject. Across Scotland, Care was also the largest subject area by full-time enrolments. 15% of enrolments in land-based industries was higher than the national average (2%) and reflects the importance of agriculture to the local economy. Gender segregation was greatest in Hairdressing (99% female) and Construction (98% male). College enrolments by full-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (6) In 2015/16, similar to the national picture, Care had the greatest number of part-time enrolments at Borders College. This subject accounted for almost a third of all part-time enrolments in the region. Gender imbalance was greatest in Science (90% female) and Engineering (80% male). Compared to the trends nationally Borders College generally had narrower gender gaps in most subject areas. College enrolments by part-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (7) Gaelic FE enrolments
Enrolment of students on Gaelic FE courses varies considerably across the country. The Highlands & Islands had the greatest uptake, with enrolments increasing by 14% from 2014/15 to 2015/16. Gaelic uptake across other regions is mixed, with nine regions, including the Borders reporting no Gaelic college activity. Overall Gaelic enrolments across Scotland increased by 12% from 2014/15 to 2015/16, rising from 1,260 to 1,405. Gaelic FE enrolments Note: Data is institution rather than resident-based Glasgow

College Activity (8) 2015/16 FE student outcomes
In 2015/16, 67% of Borders College FE students successfully completed their course, slightly higher than the national average. In terms of destination (2014/15), 22% entered employment and 73% of learners progressed onto additional education or training including higher level study or Modern Apprenticeships. 2015/16 FE student outcomes 2014/15 college destinations Note: Completed partial success indicates that a student completed the course but did not gain the qualification. This also includes students who gained employment before finishing the course or transferred to another course. Glasgow

14. Borders: University Provision
Scotland has strong university provision with more world-class universities than any other country by head of population. There are five universities in Scotland that are ranked in the world’s top 200 (2015 Times Higher Education rankings). Scotland’s universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In the Borders, Heriot-Watt University has a campus in Galashiels which provides educational opportunities to residents and also attracts students to the region. Data in this section was provided by the Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: Study destination for region’s residents Students numbers within the region by gender, age and home area Subject choice Student graduation by level Student destinations by employment and industry Glasgow

University Provision (1)
In 2014/15, there were 690 students at the Heriot-Watt Galashiels campus, 0.3% of the Scotland total. Across Scotland university student numbers grew by 1% from 2013/14, and declined slightly in the Borders. The gender split was 90% female and 10% male uptake, which was a wider gender gap than the national average. 2013/14-14/15 total student number 2014/15 HEI students, by gender Note: Unless otherwise stated, data on this and subsequent slides is institution, not resident based and refers to university campuses located in Scotland and excludes study with the Open University Scotland, campuses outside of Scotland and incomplete records. Glasgow

In 2014/15, the largest student cohort by age at the Heriot-Watt Galashiels campus were those in the age range. This was similar to the national picture, although in the Borders there were also proportionately fewer students aged 25+ and more aged % of students came from within the region but most (66%) came from elsewhere in Scotland which shows the Heriot-Watt Galashiels campus attracts people to the region. 2014/15 university students, by age 2014/15 university students, by home area Glasgow

In 2014/15, 2,560 residents of the Borders studied at a number of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) across Scotland. Within the top five were three institutions in Edinburgh which are in relatively close proximity to the region. The Open University was also a popular choice for Borders residents and attendees from the region represented 2% of the total Open University uptake across Scotland (17,075). Top 5 universities attended by Borders residents 2014/15

The Heriot-Watt campus in Galashiels has a specialism in Creative arts and design subjects. Nearly all (93%) of students in the region were studying these subjects in 2014/15. Nationally, Creative arts and design subjects accounted for a relatively small proportion of students (5%). Business and administrative studies and Architecture, building and planning were the other subjects delivered in the region. 2014/15 total enrolment of students at HE Institutions, by subject Glasgow

In 2014/15, 93% of students who studied at Heriot-Watt Galashiels, graduated with a first degree. The remaining 7% achieved a postgraduate qualification. This is reflective of the age profile of students at the Heriot-Watt Galashiels campus which was younger than the national profile, younger students are more likely to at an early stage of HE. 2014/15 university graduates by level of study Glasgow

Data on this and the following two slides was provided by the HESA Graduate Destinations Survey which surveys a sample of HEI graduates six months after leaving university. In 2014/15, the majority of graduates from HEI in the region entered full-time work (76%), which was higher than the percentage nationally (61%). Of those surveyed 9% were unemployed, which was above the national trend (5%). 2014/15 university graduates by employment status Glasgow

In 2014/15, the graduates from Heriot-Watt Galashiels campus surveyed went on to work in a range of occupations. The largest percentage (45%) were engaged in associate professional and technical occupations. Nationally 6% of graduates went to work in sales and customer service occupations, the proportion of graduates from the region entering these occupations was 13%. 2014/15 university graduates by occupation Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from Heriot-Watt Galashiels campus surveyed worked in a wide range of industries. The largest group, as the occupations profile suggests, entered the wholesale and retail sector (33%) closely followed by professional, scientific and technical activities (16%) and manufacturing (14%). 2014/15 university graduates, employment by industry Glasgow

15. Borders: Jobs and skills changes
This section will outline forecasted changes in employment from 2015 to 2024, and the nature of changing demand for qualifications in specific occupational areas. It will also consider longer term changes in the labour market and future expansion and replacement employment demand. In this section: Forecasts demand for jobs and how these may change Changing occupational and qualification demand Long-term changes in the labour market Glasgow

Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to decline in the short term before posting some moderate growth from Average annual growth over the forecast is largely flat, contracting slightly by 0.02% compared to growth of 0.2% across Scotland. Manufacturing is expected to shed around 600 jobs over the period to Employment within public administration & defence is also expected to fall, with the loss of 300 jobs by Professional, scientific & technical activities, construction and human health and social work are expected to enjoy some job growth, each with an increase of 200 jobs over Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Total Employment Growth Borders Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics Glasgow

Growth across the occupations is largely flat and limited to caring, leisure and other service occupations (100 people). Process, plant and machine operatives, elementary occupations and skilled trades occupations are all expected to decline by 200 people, 100 people and 100 people respectively, perhaps reflecting the forecast decline in manufacturing at the sectoral level. All other occupational classifications are forecast to be relatively static over the period. Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand Borders Employment Change in number of workers (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (people). Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The majority of openings in the Borders over the forecast will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in part a reflection of the sectoral and occupational trends expected over this period. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7-10 will account for around 57% of the 13,600 openings expected to be created between 2016 and The remaining opportunities available will mainly be for individuals qualified to level 5/6, equivalent to 34% of openings over the forecast period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level. Forecast employment change by Qualification ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Replacement demand will result in over 13,600 openings within the Borders region over the forecast. These openings will occur across all types of occupations including these that are expected to decline in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to fall by 200 between However together with replacement demand, will result in 13,400 openings over this period. Replacement demand will be highest for the elementary and professional occupations, but will be prevalent across a broad range of occupations. Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

16. Borders Region: What are the key implications?
The Regional Skills Assessments provide the national policy context, the national economic picture and trends and the regional position. The regional perspective covers in some depth the demand for skills, current and forecast, as well as skills activity in place to meet these needs. There is a wide range of data, with further data available in the accompanying data matrix. This final section draws out some of the key implications for improving the performance of labour markets. These are not solutions for partners, but rather implications from the analysis upon which skills investment planning decisions can be made. In this section: Review of the demand for skills Review of current skills activity to meet need Key implications for skills investment planning and recommended focus for action Glasgow

Borders region: Headline Summary (1)
. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics The number of jobs has been uneven in the Borders region since the global downturn. Jobs fell by 700 in 2015, after strong growth in 2013 and The number of jobs is now 300 more than in 2009 – better than some regions, but below the Scotland average level of growth. The Borders economy remains a traditional one and one still reliant on the public sector, and on manufacturing, a sector in long-term decline. There are higher proportions of employment in both health and manufacturing than the Scotland average, and also in retail, a relatively low wage and low value added sector. Although there were job losses in 2015, there have been changes in industrial sector employment. There was growth in accommodation and food services (a proxy for tourism) and in health, already a dominant sector. By contrast, there was further contraction in (production) manufacturing and agriculture, both traditional mainstays of employment. Glasgow

. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics (continued) Professional, scientific & technical services jobs, finance & insurance, business administration & support services and information & communications are all under-represented in the region. Employment in all of these sector declined or remained static in 2015. Out-commuting is common from the Borders, both north and south, but principally north to Edinburgh. Almost one in four works out of the region. Those accessing employment out of the region have better paid jobs. Jobs in the region (£418 per week gross all workers) pay well below the Scotland average of £492, and well below the average based on residency, £469 per week. Jobs in Edinburgh pay much better than local jobs. Low wages, and low value added sectors, are a feature of the Borders economy. A small (and falling) proportion are amongst the most 10% deprived in Scotland. At the same time, the Index of Deprivation tends not to fully reflect rural deprivation which is not as spatially concentrated as more densely populated areas. Glasgow

. Skills Challenges Although the new measure of unemployment including Universal Claimants has shown falling claimants in the Borders region, this has been the case nationally. The rate in the Borders region however remains above that for Scotland. Population growth over last 10 years has been less than half the rate of growth for Scotland - and is not expected to increase to 2037, when the Scottish population is due to increase by 8%. Over this time the working age population in the region will fall by 20%. Given a relatively static jobs market, fewer employers than the Scotland average report hard-to-fill vacancies. However, both skills under-utilization and skills gaps are more commonly reported. Skills gaps are most prevalent in skilled trades – twice the Scotland average – and in associate professional occupations. Glasgow

Skills Activity to Meet Current and Future Demand Work-based learning is critical to meeting skills development needs. There were 390 MA Starts in 2015/2016, a decrease from the previous year, but still well above the year before. A far greater proportion than average are aged than the Scotland average (and fewer aged 16-19). The top five MA frameworks largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – construction, health & social care (with sport), hospitality & tourism, retail & customer services, and administration & related. Despite the ongoing importance (if declining) presence of manufacturing there were very few engineering & related MAs. Other services including ICT professionals are represented at a lower level than the Scotland average, despite the need for the Borders to make the transition to a more modern economy. There is a continuing gender imbalance in many MA frameworks, although this is common across all Scotland regions. Glasgow

Future Trends There are expected to be 100 fewer jobs in the region by Further losses are expected in manufacturing (-600), but also in the public administration & defense (-300). There will however be some increases in professional, scientific & technical services (+200), construction (+200) and human health & social work (+200). Despite slightly fewer overall jobs, replacement demand means that 13,400 openings are expected to Half of these will be SCQF level 7 and above and 83% will be level 5 and above. This reaffirms the need for a strong skills base. A large proportion of openings will be in professional and elementary occupations, as sales and care, leisure and other services occupations. Although the agriculture and manufacturing sectors are forecast to decline, there will remain replacement demand for skilled trades in these sectors. Glasgow

Borders region: Key Implications (1)
. Recommended Areas of Focus Increasing the quality of jobs. The Borders remains a relatively low wage, low pay economy, rooted in traditional employment sectors. There has been no real progress in increasing jobs in knowledge-based sectors, such as professional services. Increasing the number of jobs. Jobs growth has stalled, and there remains a need to increase the number of jobs in the region. Out-commuting to Edinburgh in particular is common, and the region should seek to avoid becoming a dormitory region. Engender and support more enterprise. A key route to more private sector jobs is to increase the start-up rate and business density. Birth rates have increased, close to the Scotland average, as have business survival rates. Supporting new businesses to start-up and grow – linked to quality of life benefits – may help to create new jobs in the future. Glasgow

Recommended Areas of Focus Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). This includes the important health and social care sector. The ageing population have care needs that need to be met over time. Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). There are other key sectors and occupations in the regional economy where replacement demand is strong, including skilled trades and sales. These require work-based learning routes into, and upwards, within sectors. There is a need for higher level skills. There is a real need for the Borders to start the transition to a more knowledge-based economy, and the availability of higher level skills locally needs to be a part of this. A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered and facilitated. Glasgow

Recommended Areas of Focus A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is increasingly a feature of the Scotland economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, and work-based learning routes are a feature of this. A need to meet the region’s infrastructure needs. This will require adequate construction, engineering and professional skills given anticipated levels of jobs arising from the Edinburgh and South East Scotland City Deal. Tackling gender imbalances in the sector can be part of meeting these needs. Glasgow

Appendix: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Click here to go back to the main presentation: Where are the Jobs (3) - Sector Specialisms

Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Regional Skills Assessment 2016"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback

Log in

Auth with social network:

Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Regional Skills Assessment 2016"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback