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Election 2016 Surprise: Kahan Consulting Ltd. Sam Kahan REIA

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Presentation on theme: "Election 2016 Surprise: Kahan Consulting Ltd. Sam Kahan REIA"— Presentation transcript:

1 Election 2016 Surprise: Kahan Consulting Ltd. Sam Kahan REIA
Strategy Info Analysis Kahan Consulting Ltd. Election 2016 Surprise: Sam Kahan REIA November 17, 2016 Strategy Info Analysis Kahan Consulting Ltd. │P: │

2 Thoughts: The Day After Election I
Likely Outcome • Lower taxes • Fewer regulations • Higher spending, especially on infrastructure • Foreign trade less liberal especially China and Mexico • Restrictions on foreign immigration Likely Consequences • Faster inflation • Higher interest rates and steeper yield curve • Weaker FX dollar • Wider US budget deficit and US outstanding debt • Increased role for fiscal vis-à-vis monetary policy Possible Consequences • Economic Growth: unchanged or stronger. • Federal Reserve more assertive or not • Flatter yield curve or not

3 Thoughts: The Day After Election II
Sectoral Impacts • Positive: Defense, Real Estate, Energy, Pharma, Transportation. • Negative: Alternative energy, trade, commodities • Manufacturing: + output (maybe); + employment (not likely) • Implementation not immediate; 2018 or 2019 likely Political Dimension • Republicans control legislative and executive branches What of Internecine conflicts? • Democrats: opponents or “loyal opposition”? • Frank-Dodd and other legislation? • Trump Administration does not start until January 20, 2017.

4 Election and Markets So far, markets have emphasized the positives and downplayed, (ignored) the negatives

5 Economic Growth, GDP, (1999 to 2017)

6 Commercial Real Estate, (1999 to 2016:Q3)
In Dollars Relative to GDP

7 Residential Real Estate, (1999 to 2016:Q3)
In Dollars Relative to GDP

8 E-Mail: kahan.sam@gmail.com
Thank You ! ! ! Sam Kahan Kahan Consulting Ltd. Phone: (773) 809 – 4697

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