1. Scenario Workshops Clem sumter sessions
ICCC 24 Hong Kong th November 2016
H & W Worldwide Consulting

2. Group 1 – major themes Technology Environment People Finance Others
Government responses to Climate Change
Community Sentiment - coal
Regulations
Pace of Chinese industry reform – long term
Community sentiment
Finance
Project finance - availability
Limitations
Supply
China’s coal reserves
Vertical integration
Technology
Innovation, mining, blends, utilisation
Sequestration, green coal
Energy storage
Renewables
People
What to do with unskilled?
Expectations of people wanting more
Others
Vertical integration
Derivatives and Index methodology
H & W Worldwide Consulting

3. Eveready Future Happy Dragon Painful death Wasted opportunity 30% 40%
Efficient China
Eveready
Future
Happy Dragon
30%
40%
Regulation
-ve to Coal
Regulation
+ve to Coal
10%
20%
Painful
death
Wasted
opportunity
Inefficient China

4. Group 2 – major themes Wellbeing Technology Population
Innovation
US energy self sufficiency
Substitution
Automation
Population
Overpopulation
Food shortages
Global urbanization
Demographics
Geopolitical
Trump
Brexit/EU implosion
Trade sanctions
Chinese policy
Country alliances/Free Trade
Rmb global currency
China no 1 economy
Wellbeing
Social risk
Skills attraction
Availability of infrastructure
Disease
Climate change
Loss of US sovereignty
Water
Financial Regulation
Derivatives, futures
Financial crisis
Real estate China bubble
Others
Industrial right to development
H & W Worldwide Consulting

5. Rip Coal Shangrila Inglorious Bastards Dark age 5% 30% 35% 30%
Well being High
Rip
Coal
Shangrila
Technology
Non disruptive to Coal 5%
30%
Technology
Disruptive to Coal
35%
30%
Inglorious
Bastards
Dark
age
Well being Low

6. Group 3 – major themes Population Technology Others Regulation
Coal less US
Power storage, batteries
renewables
Substitution – coal, coke, steel
Cashless society
Regulation
End of US supply
Resource protectionism
Stricture regulations
Land access
Geopolitical
Global Crisis – all
Environment
Rising natural disasters
Debt
Human destructiveness WWIII
Terrorism
Population
Ageing populations
Hollowing of middle class
Rising gigi factor
Others
Gas/oil high long term prices
Water
H & W Worldwide Consulting

7. Environmental Regulation Low Environmental Regulation High
Green
paradise
Back in Black
Technology
+ve to Coal
25%
15%
Technology
-ve to Coal
35%
25%
Hero to
zero
Tight
Fit
Environmental Regulation High

8. Group 4 – major themes Regulation Technology Geopolitical risks
Energy storage, batteries
renewables
Fuel Substitution
Nuclear future – Fusion
Decarburisation
Resources
Quality
Resource depletion
Exploration
Land access
Finance & working capital
Indonesia
China dominance
EAF growth/emergence
Global peak coal
Market instability
Regulation
Protectionism
Deregulation
Public opinion
Geopolitical risks
War
World boom/bust
Global disasters
Oil shock
Population
Urbanisation India others
demographics
Others
Gas/oil high long term prices
Water
H & W Worldwide Consulting

9. Green Dragon E-Dragon Crazy Dragon Puff 25% 15% 35% 25%
China Efficient
Green
Dragon
E-Dragon
Technology
+ve to Coal
25%
15%
Technology
-ve to Coal
35%
25%
Crazy
Dragon
Puff
China
Inefficient

10. Future steps Current Scenarios Flags (signposts)
Distribute for consideration
Feedback and comments.
Flags (signposts)
Collate lists of flags from each group,
Establish ongoing monitoring, for mid year reporting.
Positioning and Trends
Look to identify position on scenario matrix and current trends
Follow and monitor events aligned to flags
Assess and calibrate current and emerging industry trends
Prepare review for next ICCC
Update and Assessment (November ICCC)
Report back and discussion on scenarios,
Update, modify extend, simplify scenarios next ICCC
H & W Worldwide Consulting

11. H & W Worldwide Consulting
Thank you for listening, your hard work and be foxy in the next 12 months!!
H & W Worldwide Consulting