1. An Evaluation Agenda for USAID’s Global Climate Change Initiative
Kit Kernan, Ph.D., Technical Expert
Marc D. Shapiro, Ph.D., Project Leader
Global Climate Change Monitoring and Evaluation Project
Development and Training Services (dTS)
Contact:

2. Outline Context and GCC results frameworks Evidence in the literature
USAID’s climate change portfolio
Near-term evaluation agenda
Long-term evaluation agenda

3. GCC Context and Result Frameworks
USAID’s 2011 Evaluation Policy
Impact and performance evaluations
Presidential Global Climate Change Initiative (GCCI) and USAID’s GCC Office
GCC funding
GCC “pillars”
Sustainable Landscapes Mitigation,
Clean Energy Mitigation, and
Adaptation
Global Climate Change Monitoring and Evaluation Project

4. GCC Result Frameworks
GCC RFs are the theoretical foundation for USAID investment to achieve objectives
36 specific cause-and-effect links
8 fundamental causal hypotheses

5. GCC Evaluation Agenda Concept
Objective is to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of USAID climate change investment
Uncover or generate rigorous evidence to test RF hypotheses systematically
Sustained over time
Integrates many sources of information
Employs several complementary approaches
Systematic literature reviews
Meta-analysis of evaluations
Review hypotheses and theories of change after accumulate evidence

6. Evidence in the Literature
Sampling of literature evidence bearing on hypotheses
Findings:
GCC hypotheses approximately capture cause-and-effect concepts in literature
No rigorous tests found
Validity of hypotheses often assumed
Emphasizes hypothesis interactions
Suggests success dependent on design quality and implementation

7. GCC Portfolio Analysis
159 USAID activities assessed (fiscal years 2011-’13)
40% Adaptation
33% Sustainable landscapes
27% Clean energy
Investment patterns across causal hypotheses reflects USAID practitioner beliefs in relative efficacy and context

8. GCC Portfolio Analysis
GCC investment in hypotheses
21% developing data and analytical tools
20% Individual and institutional capacity building
14% Testing, demonstrating, and disseminating CC technologies
13% improve mitigation and adaptation planning
10% supporting policies, laws, regulations
10% lowering financial barriers
7% social and environmental safeguards
7% establishing mechanisms for international cooperation and coordination

9. Near-term Evaluation Agenda
Selection over time
Selection criteria include
All “climate change integration pilots”
Variety across and within pillars
Hypothesis-specific (frequently funded)
Data and analytical tools
Capacity building
Demonstrating and disseminating technologies
Mitigation and adaptation planning
Supporting policies, laws, regulations (enabling environment)

10. Near-term Evaluation Agenda
Selection criteria (continued)
Implementation-specific
Scale of project
Early in implementation process
Mission time availability and capacity for involvement
Feasibility of rigor
Coverage by other funders/organizations
Ultimate selection decisions made by country/regional missions jointly with Washington
Level of rigor varies along the spectrum of impact and performance evaluations (IE or PE)
Most, not all, under GCCM&E

11. Near-term Agenda thus Far
General/cross-pillar – 1
Building social capital through participatory climate change problem identification (IE, Macedonia)
Clean energy – 2 to 4
Micro hydro-power and agriculture in DRC (IE)
Private finance networking (PE)
Potential
State-level top-down planning on energy efficiency & renewables in South Asia (IE)
Bottom-up energy efficiency & renewables in Latin America (IE)

12. Near-term Agenda Possibilities
Adaptation - 8
Disaster risk reduction (DRR) and Water management
DRR in semi-nomadic area (PE, Angola)
DRR and water management (IE, Ecuador)
Groundwater recharge and DRR (IE+PE, Indonesia)
Agriculture-related
Measuring emissions from urea deep placement for rice and potential policy impact (PE, Bangladesh)
Climate forecasting and agricultural resilience (PE, Kazakhstan)
Crop index insurance (IE, Dominican Republic)
Agricultural adaptation capacity building through tertiary education (PE, Guinea)
Conflict resolution and prevention in semi-nomadic areas (I/PE, Ethiopia)

13. Near-term Agenda Possibilities
Sustainable landscapes - 1
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+, IE, Africa)
Likely test aspects of 7 fundamental hypotheses
Add more over time for learning agenda focused on RF

14. Feedback sought What do you believe should be priorities regarding
Hypotheses to focus on?
Topics deserving rigorous evidence?
Types of activities most relevant to evaluate for impact in climate change milieu?
Most compelling evaluation questions?
Other comments or questions