1. Model use in the UK today: my top 3 concerns
April 2016
Yaron Hollander

2. “Travel demand modelling is certainly not an art, definitely not a science, probably not even a craft. It is more like a ritual, a series of formal steps solemnly undertaken for a subsequent blessing.”
Prof. David Hartgen

3. Concern 1: model use in business cases
Is the model good at it?
So is this what we do?
Initial ideas  
Forecasting
Comparing options

4. Concern 2: model use to strike deals between authorities
Senior officers use models for “mediation” in funding disputes between districts. Do they mention that…:
Mode shifting likelihood is set before the model is run
Most models ignore where people park
We failed to predict consumptions trends (e.g. Ocado vans)
We failed to predict factors affecting travel (e.g. credit crunch)
We define the wrong scenarios (thousands of 2020 models since 1990 – how many Brexit scenarios?)
Impact of modelling on policy, transparency, efficiency – never presented

5. Concern 3: model use in public consultations
Transport planners take leadership?
Transport planners follow clear ethics?
The green belt

Emissions
Disabled people
Deprived neighbourhoods
Evidence vs advocacy 

6. A different approach is within reach
Direct: get insight directly from data, with the help of Artificial Intelligence.
Inclusive: avoid specialised transport techniques. Remove the harmful boundaries with other forms of data science.
Transparent: expose it all to the critique of any senior analyst. Revoke the monopoly of 3 veterans on how we build our cities. Join the Open Source community.
Continuous: build software to learn from data feeds about policy impact. Run it non-stop and refine your insight every day through Data Mining.
Humble: take no insight for granted. Rely on human
intelligence to justify your policies.
 DITCH.
April 2016
Yaron Hollander