1. GLOBOIL INDIA 2016 Abdul Rasheed Janmohammed
21st – 23rd September 2016
Hotel Grand Hyatt, Goa, India.
“Emerging Trends In The Edible Oil Sector – A View From Pakistan.”. By
Abdul Rasheed Janmohammed
Chairman Pakistan Edible Oil Refiners Association (PEORA)
Chief Executive Pakistan Edible Oil Conference (PEOC)
Chief Executive Westbury Group – Pakistan.

2. EDIBLE OIL SCENARIO Per Capita Consumption 16kgs. Total Consumption
Around 3.9 Million Tons
Local Production
Around 0.5 Million Tons
Import of Edible Oils
Around 2.7 Million Tons
Oil Extracted from Imported Seeds
Around 0.75 Million Tons

3. Edible Oil Duty Structure – Pak. Rupees / M.Tons
Product
Import Duty (Malaysia)
Import Duty (Indonesia)
Additional
Import
Duty
CED
I.Tax
FED
Olien 1%
16%
5.5%
1000
RBDPO
9230
CPO
6850
Product
Import Duty
Additional Import Duty
CED
I.Tax
FED
CDSBO
9100 1%
16%
5.5%
1000

4. Import of Edible Oils in Pakistan (Basis Arrival) in M.Tons
For January-December 2014 , 2015 and Jan-Sep 2016
Product
2014
2015
Jan-Sep 2016
Olien
1,093,958
1,305,586
932,698
RBDPO
1,122,857
1,077,194
689,658
CPO
104,290
125,319
95,349
CDSBO
122,862
191,309
152,098
Total
2,443,967
2,699,408
1,869,803
The import in 2015 was increased by 10.45% as compared to 2014.
In the year 2016 Pakistan appetite is more or less same as of 2015, however, it seems that due to
supply constraints at origin, import figures may be less as compare to 2015.

5. Import of Palm Oil Products From Malaysia and Indonesia
During January-December 2014 in M.Tons (Basis Arrival)
Product
Malaysia %
Indonesia
Total
Olien
416,540 38
677,418 62
1,093,958
RBDPO
120,515 11
1,002,342 89
1,122,857
CPO
99,790 96
4,500 4
104,290
636,845
1,684,260
2,321,105
27.50%
72.50%

6. Import of Palm Oil Products From Malaysia and Indonesia
During January-December 2015 in M.Tons (Basis Arrival)
Product
Malaysia %
Indonesia
Total
Olien
241,961 19
1,063,625 91
1,305,586
RBDPO
99,184 09
978,010 81
1,077,194
CPO
96,894 77
28,425 23
125,319
438,039
2,070,060
2,508,099
17%
83%

7. Import of Palm Oil Products From Malaysia and Indonesia
During January-August 2016 in M.Tons (Basis Arrival)
Product
Malaysia %
Indonesia
Total
Olien
206,064 24
647,073 76
853,137
RBDPO
65,042 11
545,108 89
610,150
CPO
78,147 73
28,414 27
106,561
349,253
1,220,595
1,569,848
22%
78%

8. Percentage Of Palm Oil Products From Malaysia and Indonesia Imported
During Jan-Dec 2014 ,2015 and Jan-Aug 2016 In M.Tons
(Basis Arrival)
Year
Malaysia %
Indonesia %
2014
27.50
72.50
2015 17 83
Jan-Aug 22 78

9. Graph Percentage Of Palm Oil Products
From Malaysia and Indonesia Imported
During Jan-Dec 2014 ,2015 and Jan-Aug 2016 In M.Tons
(Basis Arrival)

10. Oilseeds Duty Structure – Pak. Rupees / M.Tons
Product
Import Duty
Federal Excise Duty
Sales Tax
Advance I.Tax
Canola/Rapeseed 4%
Rs. 400 PMT
16%
5.5%
Sunflower Seed
Soybean Seed 6%

11. Production of Major Oilseeds Crop
(000 Tons)
(000 Tons)
(000 Tons)
Cotton Seed
3592
431
3450
414
2966
356
Rapeseed
189 60
210 67
202 65
Sunflower Seed
190 76
187 69 92 35
Canola Seed 16 6 17
Total
573
556
462
Source: Pakistan Oil Seed
Development Board / Economic Survey of Pakistan.

12. Import of Oilseeds in Pakistan (Basis Arrival) in M.Tons
For January-December 2013, 2014 , 2015 and Jan-15th Sep 2016
Product
2013
2014
2015
Jan-15th Sep 2016
Canola / Rapeseed
534,384
982,870
806,766
790,356
Sunflower Seed
185,985
193,186
30,486
20,000
Soybean Seed
9,094
579,724
803,168
Total
792,369
1,185,150
1,416,976
1,613,524
2014 import was higher by 49.5% as compared to 2013
2015 import was higher by 19.5% as compared to 2014
In 2016 further arrival till December 2016 is expected to be:
Canola Seed
Around 400,000 MT
Sunflower Seed
Around 100,000 MT
Soybean Seed
Around 200,000 MT
Total
Around 700,000 MT
This means total import of Oilseeds in the calendar year Jan-Dec 2016 is expected to be around 2.3 million Tons i.e. increase by around 62%.
Pakistan has perhaps over imported Oilseeds. This has primarily reduced import of Soya Oil and Soya Meal.

13. MARKET FACTS
Let us see where the Market could head on the basis of following facts:
1. Malaysian Palm Production was around (M) tons in 2015 and expected to be between (M) tons in 2016 due to El Nino effects.
2. Indonesian Palm Production was around 33.4 (M) tons in 2015 and expected to be around (M) tons in 2016 due to El Nino effects. (Indonesian figures can not be accurate as no official data available).
3. US Soybean Crop was around (M) Tons in 2015 and expected to be around (M) in 2016.
4. Argentina Soybean Crop was around (M) Tons in 2015 and expected to be around (M) Tons in 2016.
5. Brazilian Soybean Crop was (M) Tons in 2015 and expected to be around (M) Tons in 2016.
Malaysian Stocks of Palm Oil in August 2016 were 1.46 (M) Tons which are all time low.

14. MARKET FACTS
Indian import of edible oil during (Nov-Oct) was million tonnes and during (Nov-Aug) is 12.16(M) Tons. Same is expected to be 14.8 to 15.0 million tonnes by the end of Oil Year October 2016.
The year 2016 has been very vulnerable year for Edible Oils. With due respect, again most of the forecasts did not prove right as perhaps everyone over estimated the supplies. The highest we have seen on MDEX was RM 2793 on 29th Mar 2016 and the lowest we have seen was RM 2186 on 12th July 2016 i.e. the variation of 27.76% during Jan-Aug. In the second quarter 2016, Bears were winning the race as they were anticipating large supplies and no effects of El Nino. However, the third quarter surprised everyone and all were looking where the production has gone. Thus, market rose considerably due to supply constraints and regular demand.
Fundamentally most of the commodity markets remained weak due to low prices of Crude Oil and uncertain Chinese economy. Crude Oil which is mostly termed as the Political Commodity has been steady to lower in the current year.

15. MARKET FACTS
Another area which has been very disturbing is the uncertainty in currencies in most of the Countries. Time being it is extremely difficult for the Industry players to plan out their requirements as lately only SNDs are not enough to determine the market trend.
In the second half 2016, production and supplies have been very uncertain. For the first time Indonesians have not been very competitive and this has given some edge to Malaysians to improve their export numbers. Demand is almost consistent though Indian imports are increasing. Chinese demand though remain uncertain, will slow down in Nov/Dec particularly for RBD Palm Oil being winter months.

16. FORECAST
The market facts being deliberated do give us certain direction.
Time being Palm market is supply specific and it seems that there are genuine supply constraints which is not allowing stocks to accumulate. While demand will indeed be an issue in the last quarter 2016, scarcity in supply may not push the prices downward.
While we are anticipating some increase in production figures during Oct / Nov 2016, stock levels are already too low and will digest any increase in the production.
Based on the above market facts, it is my belief that Palm prices may not go below RM 2600 and has the potential to remain between RM 2600 to RM 2800 by December 2016.
For first quarter 2017 I believe Palm prices may even go upto RM 3000.

19. I would like to finish my Presentation with the following quote of
BAPU

20. THANK YOU