1. Afghanistan and its Troublesome Neighbourhood
The More Things Change, the More they Stay the Same?
Kristian Berg Harpviken
16 October 2016

2. Afghanistan “
The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is a landlocked country in South-Central Asia. It is variously described as being located within Central Asia, South Asia, or the Middle East. It is bordered by Iran in the west, Pakistan in the south and east, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in the north, and China in the far northeast. ”
wikipedia

3. Core of region?
The conflict in Afghanistan has matured into a relatively stable social system that menaces the lives of millions of people. This conflict forms the core of a regional conflict formation, including the continuing challenges in Tajikistan, the growing conflict led by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan involving several states, processes of political decay in Pakistan, challenges to political order in Iran, and the insurgency in Kashmir.
[The]more desirable policy goal would be reconstructing the country as part of the interstate and economic structure of an entire region. (…) The war is not a civil war but a transnational one. The transnational links are too deep to be untangled and will have to be transformed.
Barnett R. Rubin, Ashraf Ghani, William Maley, Ahmed Rashid, Olivier Roy ‘Afghanistan: Reconstruction and Peacebuilding in a Regional Framework’, KOFF, 2001

4. Heart of Asia

5. New Opportunities?

6. The Quadrilateral Coordination Group Bringing Taliban to the table?

7. Regional Security Complexes
a group of states whose primary security concerns link together sufficiently close that their national securities cannot realistically be considered apart from one another
(Barry Buzan, People States and Fear, 1991)
States as the prime actors
Security concerns take precedence
Regions robust over time

8. Core of region?
The conflict in Afghanistan has matured into a relatively stable social system that menaces the lives of millions of people. This conflict forms the core of a regional conflict formation, including the continuing challenges in Tajikistan, the growing conflict led by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan involving several states, processes of political decay in Pakistan, challenges to political order in Iran, and the insurgency in Kashmir.
[The]more desirable policy goal would be reconstructing the country as part of the interstate and economic structure of an entire region. (…) The war is not a civil war but a transnational one. The transnational links are too deep to be untangled and will have to be transformed.
Barnett R. Rubin, Ashraf Ghani, William Maley, Ahmed Rashid, Olivier Roy ‘Afghanistan: Reconstruction and Peacebuilding in a Regional Framework’, KOFF, 2001

9. Afghanistan

10. Afghanistan in the region

11. A Rock Between Hard Places?

12. South Asia

13. South Asia Members Main actors Regional hegemon
Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, The Maldives
Main actors
India-Pakistan
Regional hegemon
India
Main regional security concern
India-Pakistan: existential distrust
Main concerns related to Afghanistan
’Strategic depth’
Pashtunistan
Durand line

14. South Asia Processes of change Supraregional actors
Ascending India
Descending Pakistan
Supraregional actors
United States, China, Russia (?)
Regional security organization
SAARC
Transnational challenges
Al Qaeda
Taliban
Islamic State
Afghan allies
Pakistan: Taliban
India: Various non-Pashtun groups

15. South Asia

16. Central Asia

17. Central Asia Members Main actors Regional hegemon
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
Main actors
Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan
Regional hegemon
Contested
Main regional security concerns
Regime stability
Balancing Russia
Independence
Main concerns related to Afghanistan
Radicalization/Militancy

18. Central Asia Processes of change Supraregional actors
China/Russia overturns the US
Supraregional actors
China, US, Russia, Turkey
Regional security organization
Shanghai, Cooperation Association (SCA)
Transnational challenge
Drugs
Islamist extremism
Afghan allies
Various non-Pashtun groups

19. Central Asia

20. The Persian Gulf

21. The Persian Gulf Members Main actors Regional hegemon
Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates
Main actors
Iran-Saudi Arabia
Regional hegemon
Contested
Main regional security concern
Iran-Saudi: ideology contest
Main concern related to Afghanistan
Protecting the Shia
US presence

22. The Persian Gulf Processes of change Supraregional actors
Managing tension
Uncertainty over Iraq
Supraregional actors US
Russia-China
Regional security organization
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
Transnational challenge
Al Qaeda
Drugs
Migration
Afghan allies
Iran: Shia groups, non-Pashtun groups
Saudi: None?

23. The Persian Gulf

24. Generalizations South Asia: Conflict/Proxy War
Central Asia: Non-engagement
Persian Gulf: Rivalry

25. Afghanistan in the region
Implications
Traditional security first
Inertia
Afghanistan and security cooperation
What’s New?

26. Thank you!